The 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on Record

2026年厄尔尼诺现象有望成为有记录以来最强的一次

The world could face the strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally. 世界可能面临自开始有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象，这将增加极端天气事件发生的可能性，并对全球产生重大的长期经济影响。

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.” 伯克利地球（Berkeley Earth）气候科学家泽克·豪斯法瑟（Zeke Hausfather）的一项新分析，描绘了太平洋正在形成的气候现象令人担忧的前景。模型一致预测，今年的厄尔尼诺现象（其特征是热带东太平洋水温异常升高）可能是有记录以来最强的一次。豪斯法瑟基于14个气候模型截至7月的厄尔尼诺预测分析指出：“今年的厄尔尼诺现象不仅极有可能是自可靠记录开始以来最强的一次，而且它最终可能会以令人震惊的幅度成为史上最强。”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños. 气候研究人员通过观察太平洋被称为“尼诺3.4区”（Niño 3.4）的区域温度来衡量厄尔尼诺现象的强度，该区域覆盖了太平洋盆地的东部和中部。这项新分析依赖于667次模拟，并将它们与1877年以来最强厄尔尼诺事件的历史记录进行了比较。它还将厄尔尼诺的强度与化石燃料驱动的背景变暖分离开来，从而更容易在超级厄尔尼诺现象之间进行比较。

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread. 模型平均值显示，尼诺3.4区的热量峰值可能比正常水平高出3.6摄氏度（6.5华氏度）。这一数字将比2015-2016年厄尔尼诺事件期间创下的前纪录高出约0.8摄氏度。纪录以如此大的差距被打破是罕见的。

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes. “作为背景参考，过去150年里最强和第五强厄尔尼诺现象之间的差距仅为0.5摄氏度左右。这些模型预测的情况超出了我们以往观测到的任何范围，”豪斯法瑟写道。

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually). 当然，发生在热带太平洋的事情不会只停留在热带太平洋。厄尔尼诺现象会重塑大气层，改变世界各地的天气模式。通常情况下，厄尔尼诺现象越强烈，其影响就越严重。

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming. 太平洋创纪录的海洋高温，加上碳排放驱动的全球变暖，可能会将全球气温推向新高。但厄尔尼诺释放的额外热量需要一段时间才能在庞大的气候系统中发挥作用，这意味着明年我们才会看到今年太平洋热浪对全球平均气温的全面影响。根据他的预测，2027年的全球气温可能比工业化前平均水平高出1.7摄氏度，远高于被视为全球变暖相对安全水平的1.5摄氏度阈值。

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring. 但世界不必等到2027年才能感受到厄尔尼诺带来的热量。Carbon Brief的一项独立分析显示，2026年创下年度高温纪录的可能性正在增加，从4月份的19%上升到7月份的35%。预报员预计，未来几个月与厄尔尼诺相关的极端天气将影响全球多个地区。事实上，一些影响已经显现：东太平洋的渔业捕获量正在下降，秘鲁政府已于今年春季实施了凤尾鱼禁捕令。

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going. 豪斯法瑟的分析还显示，这种现象的发展速度比往常更快。根据对比，今年的厄尔尼诺现象比1997-1998年的那次超级厄尔尼诺事件增强得更快。它也与2015年的事件有显著不同，2015年的事件开始时，海洋已经显示出先前的变暖迹象——换句话说，它有一个“助跑”。这一点尤其引人注目，因为今年开始时处于拉尼娜现象（厄尔尼诺的“冷表亲”）期间，所以它在开始之前还需要经历一个转换过程。

The research findings were presented this week during a briefing organized by Berkeley Earth, during which researchers talked about other impacts associated with El Niño. That includes economic losses caused by the uptick in extreme weather. A study by Justin Mankin, a climate scientist at Dartmouth College, found that damages from the 1997-1998 El Niño event reduced global economic growth by approximately $5.7 trillion in the years that followed. If current projections are accurate, the episode currently unfolding could result in cumulative economic losses of around $10 trillion by 2032. 这些研究结果本周在伯克利地球组织的一次简报会上发布，研究人员在会上讨论了与厄尔尼诺相关的其他影响。这包括由极端天气增加所造成的经济损失。达特茅斯学院气候科学家贾斯汀·曼金（Justin Mankin）的一项研究发现，1997-1998年厄尔尼诺事件造成的损失在随后的几年里使全球经济增长减少了约5.7万亿美元。如果目前的预测准确，当前正在发生的这一事件到2032年可能会导致约10万亿美元的累计经济损失。

One challenge with forecasting an exceptionally strong El Niño, though, is the lack of historic analogues. Models are fed historic data, so it remains to be seen just how accurate their record-breaking projections are. But, Hausfather notes, the models appear to be converging around the 3.6 degrees Celsius average, giving forecasters confidence that the world is in for some serious consequences. 然而，预测异常强烈的厄尔尼诺现象的一个挑战是缺乏历史类比。模型输入的是历史数据，因此其创纪录的预测究竟有多准确还有待观察。但豪斯法瑟指出，模型似乎都趋向于3.6摄氏度的平均值，这让预报员确信，世界将面临一些严重的后果。