Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US
Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US
关税并没有将制造业工作岗位带回美国
Altana CEO Evan Smith on the new normal of global trade. Altana 首席执行官 Evan Smith 谈全球贸易的“新常态”。
by Nilay Patel | Jul 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC 作者：Nilay Patel | 2026年7月27日，世界标准时间下午3:00
Nilay Patel is editor-in-chief of The Verge, host of the Decoder podcast, and co-host of The Vergecast. Nilay Patel 是《The Verge》的总编辑、《Decoder》播客的主持人，也是《The Vergecast》的联合主持人。
Today, I’m talking with Evan Smith, who is cofounder and CEO of Altana, a company that develops software tools to manage big, messy supply chain networks around the world. 今天，我采访了 Altana 的联合创始人兼首席执行官 Evan Smith。该公司致力于开发软件工具，以管理全球庞大且复杂的供应链网络。
We last had Evan on in early 2025 to talk about how Trump’s first few waves of tariffs were starting to affect global trade and what patterns Altana was seeing in all that macro-level data about shipping and trade. It was a very alarming and also very illuminating chat; Evan and I got into the existential weeds of international relations and economics almost immediately. It was a great conversation. 我们上一次邀请 Evan 是在 2025 年初，当时我们讨论了特朗普政府最初几轮关税如何开始影响全球贸易，以及 Altana 在航运和贸易的宏观数据中观察到了哪些模式。那是一次既令人警醒又极具启发性的谈话；我和 Evan 几乎立刻就深入探讨了国际关系和经济学的核心本质。那是一次非常棒的对话。
A year and a half later, and everything is somehow even more chaotic than it was the last time Evan and I talked — and that’s true both about trade and in the business world. And, as you’ll hear, we jumped right back into the weeds yet again. 一年半过去了，情况比我和 Evan 上次交谈时更加混乱——无论是在贸易领域还是商业世界，情况皆是如此。正如你接下来将听到的，我们再次深入探讨了这些复杂的问题。
Developments in agentic AI have changed what Altana can do, but like every software company, they’ve also changed how Altana can do it. You’ll hear Evan describe how AI is changing how they make software for a very demanding set of clients that manage billions in international trade — which is causing some big debates about how a software company even runs in 2026. 代理式人工智能（Agentic AI）的发展改变了 Altana 的能力，但像所有软件公司一样，这也改变了 Altana 的工作方式。你将听到 Evan 描述人工智能如何改变他们为那些管理着数十亿美元国际贸易的高要求客户开发软件的方式——这引发了关于 2026 年软件公司该如何运营的一些重大争论。
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And of course, what they do also needs to change more or less daily. Trade policy is changing rapidly around the world but likely nowhere faster than here in the US. Between the Trump administration’s whack-a-mole tariff policies and war in Iran, it’s very hard to keep up with the current rules. 当然，他们的工作内容也需要几乎每天都在变化。全球贸易政策正在迅速更迭，但恐怕没有哪里比美国变化得更快。在特朗普政府“打地鼠”式的关税政策和伊朗战争的双重影响下，想要跟上当前的规则变得非常困难。
That’s where Altana comes in. All that data coming from all around the world gives Evan a really high-level view of what’s actually happening. All those tariffs, for example, were supposed to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. So I asked Evan directly: Is that actually happening? Spoiler alert — you won’t be surprised to hear him say “no.” And while it’s clear the world still relies on global supply chains, the pressure placed on economic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz is going to get higher than ever. 这就是 Altana 的用武之地。来自世界各地的海量数据让 Evan 能够从极高的视角洞察实际发生的情况。例如，所有那些关税本应将制造业工作岗位带回美国。所以我直接问了 Evan：这真的发生了吗？剧透一下——听到他说“没有”，你一定不会感到惊讶。虽然显而易见世界仍然依赖全球供应链，但霍尔木兹海峡等经济咽喉要道所承受的压力将比以往任何时候都大。
There’s a lot going on in this one — as you can tell, Evan and I really enjoy talking to each other. Okay: Altana CEO Evan Smith. Here we go. This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity. 这次访谈内容非常丰富——正如你所感受到的，Evan 和我非常享受彼此的交流。好了：Altana 首席执行官 Evan Smith。我们开始吧。本次访谈为篇幅和清晰度经过了轻微编辑。
Evan Smith, you’re the co-founder and CEO of Altana. Welcome back to Decoder. Evan Smith，你是 Altana 的联合创始人兼首席执行官。欢迎回到《Decoder》。
It’s good to be here again. Thanks for having me. 很高兴再次来到这里。谢谢你的邀请。
I was looking over our last interview from about a year and a half ago, and boy, we got straight into the existential weeds of what it means to run the global economy and what was changing. People can go back and watch, read, or listen to that interview. It’s very good. I really enjoyed it. The thing that strikes me about the past year and a half is that some of this stuff was theoretical the last time you were on the show. You founded Altana on the idea that globalization as we knew it — what you call, “globalization 1.0” — was going to come to an end, it was going to get more complicated, and the world needed software to solve it. The rubber has hit the road. It has gotten more complicated. It’s getting more complicated by the day. Even as we speak this week, it is getting more complicated. Even over the last year and a half it feels like it has gone from being a bet to being something very practical now. Is that how you see it? 我回顾了我们大约一年半前的上一次采访，天哪，我们当时直接深入探讨了全球经济运作的本质以及正在发生的变化。大家可以回去观看、阅读或收听那次采访。那次访谈非常好，我真的很喜欢。过去一年半里，最让我感触的是，你上次上节目时提到的一些东西当时还只是理论。你创立 Altana 的初衷是认为我们所熟知的全球化——你称之为“全球化 1.0”——即将终结，世界将变得更加复杂，而世界需要软件来解决这个问题。现在，现实已经摆在眼前。情况确实变得更复杂了，而且每天都在变得更复杂。就在我们本周交谈时，它还在变得更复杂。过去一年半里，感觉它已经从一种赌注变成了一种非常现实的东西。你是这样看的吗？
Completely. One of our investors described Altana as, “an index bet on global dislocation.” 完全同意。我们的一位投资者将 Altana 描述为“对全球错位（dislocation）的指数级押注”。
That’s a lot. Can I just ask you maybe a philosophical, emotional question about that? I get a lot of feedback from our audience. You have CEOs on the show and they talk about making bets in this way, and on the ground, it’s chaos. So, I get an index bet on dislocation. That sounds great on CNBC, right? 这信息量很大。我能问你一个关于此的哲学性、情感性的问题吗？我从听众那里收到了很多反馈。节目里常有首席执行官谈论这种押注方式，但在现实层面，情况却是一团糟。所以，我理解“对错位的指数级押注”。这在 CNBC（财经频道）上听起来很棒，对吧？
I understand exactly how that plays to that audience. How do you feel about that approach to the world, especially as a software company that kind of just makes a map for people, and how it plays out for regular people? I think regular people right now are really struggling and they’re really confused. They’re very anxious. 我完全明白这种说法对那个受众群体意味着什么。作为一家本质上只是为人们绘制地图的软件公司，你如何看待这种看待世界的方式，以及它对普通人意味着什么？我认为普通人现在真的在挣扎，他们感到非常困惑，也非常焦虑。
Well, trade touches virtually every part of or most of our lives. So, our mission is to fix globalization, but we’re not retreating from globalization. We’re leaning into it. But we believe that globalization needs to be fixed. It needs to be more trusted, more secure, more fair. That’s a recognition that trade will and should continue across borders. That’s the animating ethos in the company. We work with our customers who in most respects are on the front lines of all this stuff. We work with eight of the 10 biggest logistics providers. We work with the government agencies that have to scramble to enforce these laws. Then, we work with importers and their supply chains to comply with them. And the stakes are huge. Do medical devices get to the hospital? What’s the price of fuel and food? 贸易几乎触及我们生活的方方面面。因此，我们的使命是修复全球化，但我们并没有从全球化中退缩，我们是在拥抱它。但我们认为全球化需要被修复。它需要变得更值得信赖、更安全、更公平。这承认了贸易将会且应该继续跨越国界。这就是公司的核心精神。我们与客户合作，他们在大多数方面都处于这一切的前线。我们与全球十大物流供应商中的八家合作。我们与那些必须争分夺秒执行法律的政府机构合作。此外，我们还与进口商及其供应链合作，以确保合规。这关系重大。医疗设备能送到医院吗？燃料和食品的价格是多少？
So, I couldn’t agree with you more that the dislocation ultimately has the most profound consequences for everyday people, but that’s the point, right? Trade is the lifeblood of growth. This is how we feed ourselves, sustain ourselves, and protect ourselves. So, how do you have both at the same time? How do you have more enforcement and more fracturing as geopolitics play out, but have more trade, more growth, and more economic security? I think Altana is the answer to that question. 所以，我非常同意你的观点，即这种错位最终会对普通人产生最深远的影响，但这正是问题的关键，对吧？贸易是增长的命脉。这是我们养活自己、维持生存和保护自己的方式。那么，如何同时实现这两者呢？如何在地缘政治博弈中加强执法和应对碎片化的同时，又能拥有更多的贸易、更多的增长和更多的经济安全？我认为 Altana 就是这个问题的答案。
The reason I’m asking is that I’m worried that there’s too many layers of abstraction — not with you but with everyone. Building solutions for our current world. You just acquired a company called Cervo AI. Literally as we’re speaking. The press release is dated today. 我之所以这样问，是因为我担心存在太多的抽象层——不是针对你，而是针对所有人。在为我们当今的世界构建解决方案时。你刚刚收购了一家名为 Cervo AI 的公司。就在我们交谈的时候。新闻稿的日期就是今天。
I’ve had a s… 我有一个……