Judge blocks first state law that would have banned prediction markets
Judge blocks first state law that would have banned prediction markets
法官叫停首个旨在禁止预测市场的州法律
Minnesota, the first US state to prohibit prediction markets, was prevented from enforcing the law by a federal court ruling just days before the ban was scheduled to take effect. But while Minnesota was stopped from enforcing a total ban, the state may ultimately be allowed to prohibit some types of prediction-market wagers. 明尼苏达州是美国第一个禁止预测市场的州，但在该禁令原定生效的前几天，一项联邦法院裁决阻止了该州执行这项法律。尽管明尼苏达州被禁止实施全面禁令，但该州最终仍可能被允许禁止某些类型的预测市场投注。
The Trump administration and the two largest prediction markets—Kalshi and Polymarket—sued Minnesota after the state enacted the law in May. The cases were consolidated, and a ruling issued yesterday imposed a preliminary injunction blocking the law that was scheduled to take effect on August 1. 在明尼苏达州于五月颁布该法律后，特朗普政府以及两大预测市场平台——Kalshi 和 Polymarket——对该州提起了诉讼。这些案件被合并审理，昨日发布的裁决下达了初步禁令，阻止了原定于 8 月 1 日生效的法律。
Minnesota lawmakers saw prediction markets as indistinguishable from gambling, but the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) argues it has exclusive authority to regulate the platforms under federal law. One of the primary legal questions is whether event contracts are “swaps,” which are regulated by the CFTC. Swaps are defined broadly in US law to include contracts in which payment “is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.” 明尼苏达州立法者认为预测市场与赌博无异，但美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）主张，根据联邦法律，其拥有监管这些平台的专属权力。核心法律问题之一是事件合约是否属于受 CFTC 监管的“掉期”（swaps）。在美国法律中，掉期的定义非常广泛，包括那些支付“取决于与潜在金融、经济或商业后果相关的事件或偶然事件的发生、不发生或发生程度”的合约。
US District Judge Katherine Menendez in the District of Minnesota, a Biden appointee, said Minnesota’s total ban on prediction markets is likely to violate US law because many trades on Kalshi and Polymarket are swaps. Menendez wrote: Specifically, it appears that whether the Minnesota statute is expressly preempted turns on whether the state law attempts to regulate trades in event contracts that qualify as “swaps” within the meaning of the CEA [Commodity Exchange Act]. And there are several examples of event contracts hosted by Kalshi and Polymarket US that fit that definition because they concern the occurrence of events with clear potential economic, financial, or commercial consequences that are neither remote or unattenuated. Kalshi and Polymarket US are designated contract markets, so the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction to regulate transactions involving those “swaps.” 明尼苏达区联邦地方法院法官凯瑟琳·梅嫩德斯（Katherine Menendez，由拜登任命）表示，明尼苏达州对预测市场的全面禁令很可能违反美国法律，因为 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 上的许多交易属于掉期。梅嫩德斯写道：具体而言，明尼苏达州的法规是否被明确优先排除（preempted），取决于该州法律是否试图监管那些在《商品交易法》（CEA）定义下属于“掉期”的事件合约交易。Kalshi 和 Polymarket US 上托管的多个事件合约案例符合这一定义，因为它们涉及的事件具有明确的潜在经济、金融或商业后果，且并非遥远或无关紧要。Kalshi 和 Polymarket US 是指定的合约市场，因此 CFTC 对涉及这些“掉期”的交易拥有专属管辖权。
State AG: “Prediction markets are gambling”
州总检察长：“预测市场就是赌博”
Menendez said the CFTC, Kalshi, and Polymarket met their burden of showing they are likely to succeed on the merits, so she issued “a preliminary injunction barring enforcement of Minnesota’s prediction market statute until a final decision on the merits is reached.” But she said Minnesota may be able to prohibit some types of event contracts offered on Kalshi and Polymarket because not all of them appear to meet the definition of swaps. For example, Menendez doesn’t think prediction-market bets on the outcome of Love Island USA meet the legal definition of swaps. 梅嫩德斯表示，CFTC、Kalshi 和 Polymarket 已经履行了举证责任，证明他们在实体问题上胜诉的可能性很大，因此她发布了“初步禁令，禁止执行明尼苏达州的预测市场法规，直到对实体问题做出最终裁决”。但她同时指出，明尼苏达州或许能够禁止 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 上提供的某些类型的事件合约，因为并非所有合约都符合掉期的定义。例如，梅嫩德斯认为，针对《美国爱之岛》（Love Island USA）结果的预测市场投注并不符合掉期的法律定义。
Minnesota could continue litigating the case in district court or ask a federal appeals court to overturn the preliminary injunction. When asked if the state will appeal yesterday’s ruling, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said he will keep defending the law and did not make any mention of an appeal. “We respectfully disagree with the Court’s determination that the proper ‘status quo’ to maintain is one that allows predatory gambling apps to proliferate,” Ellison said in a statement provided to Ars today. “However, we also acknowledge that the Court has been presented with complex legal issues that are difficult to decide quickly and without a fully developed record. We look forward to continuing to litigate this case and defend the State’s duly passed law.” Ellison also said, “Prediction markets are gambling, plain and simple, and Minnesota has every right to keep predatory gambling out of our communities.” 明尼苏达州可以继续在地方法院进行诉讼，或请求联邦上诉法院推翻该初步禁令。当被问及该州是否会对昨日的裁决提出上诉时，明尼苏达州总检察长基思·埃里森（Keith Ellison）表示他将继续捍卫该法律，但未提及上诉事宜。埃里森在今天提供给 Ars 的声明中表示：“我们尊重但不同意法院的裁定，即维持所谓的‘现状’是允许掠夺性赌博应用程序泛滥。”“然而，我们也承认法院面临着复杂的法律问题，很难在没有充分证据记录的情况下迅速做出决定。我们期待继续就此案进行诉讼，并捍卫州政府依法通过的法律。”埃里森还补充道：“预测市场就是赌博，简单明了，明尼苏达州完全有权将掠夺性赌博拒之于我们的社区之外。”
Minnesota may get partial victory
明尼苏达州或将获得部分胜利
While Minnesota was the first state to enact a full ban, other states have tried to impose limits on prediction markets by regulating them under gambling laws. Courts have reached different conclusions on whether states can regulate prediction markets, raising the odds that the Supreme Court will take up a case to decide the matter. 虽然明尼苏达州是第一个实施全面禁令的州，但其他州也曾试图通过赌博法来限制预测市场。法院对于各州是否有权监管预测市场得出了不同的结论，这增加了最高法院介入并对此事做出裁决的可能性。
Menendez’s ruling said that when she rules on the merits, district court may allow Minnesota to prohibit certain types of event contracts, but not all of them. “Plaintiffs have not shown that every event contract listed on Kalshi and Polymarket US fits the statutory definition of a ‘swap.’ If they don’t fit, Plaintiffs have much weaker claims that the CFTC is the only authority that can regulate them,” Menendez wrote. 梅嫩德斯的裁决指出，当她对实体问题做出裁决时，地方法院可能会允许明尼苏达州禁止某些类型的事件合约，但并非全部。梅嫩德斯写道：“原告并未证明 Kalshi 和 Polymarket US 上列出的每一项事件合约都符合‘掉期’的法定定义。如果它们不符合，原告关于 CFTC 是唯一监管机构的主张就会弱得多。”
After the sides present their cases in more detail, Menendez could issue a permanent injunction that blocks only parts of the law. She wrote: After all, as relevant here, the exclusive jurisdiction Congress gave to the CFTC extends to transactions involving swaps that are conducted on DCMs [designated contract markets], not to every conceivable event contract that Kalshi, Polymarket US, or any other DCM might host. If, as appears to be the case, Kalshi and Polymarket US are listing at least some event contracts that don’t meet the CEA’s definition of swaps, any permanent injunctive relief may be much narrower. But given the unique nature of Minnesota’s prediction market statute, the posture of these cases, and the imminent effective date of Minnesota’s statute, a preliminary injunction maintaining the status quo until the merits of this case can be fully resolved is appropriate. 在双方更详细地陈述案情后，梅嫩德斯可能会发布一项仅阻止部分法律条款的永久禁令。她写道：毕竟，就本案而言，国会赋予 CFTC 的专属管辖权仅限于在指定合约市场（DCM）上进行的涉及掉期的交易，而非 Kalshi、Polymarket US 或任何其他 DCM 可能托管的每一个可想象的事件合约。如果 Kalshi 和 Polymarket US 确实至少列出了一些不符合 CEA 掉期定义的事件合约，那么任何永久性禁令的范围可能会窄得多。但考虑到明尼苏达州预测市场法规的独特性、案件的态势以及该法规即将生效的日期，发布一项维持现状的初步禁令，直到本案实体问题得到充分解决，是适当的。
Menendez also stressed that “this is not a final determination of the merits, and there may be strong arguments that ultimately weigh against a conclusion that the CEA expressly preempts the statute.” Minnesota argued that “swaps should only be understood to include event contracts that are tied to some commodity,” rather than to the outcome of some future event, Menendez wrote. But the US law defining swap “has no such limiting language,” and several other courts already “found that event contracts involving the outcomes of sporting… 梅嫩德斯还强调，“这并非对实体问题的最终裁决，可能存在强有力的论据，最终会反驳 CEA 明确优先于该州法规的结论。”梅嫩德斯写道，明尼苏达州辩称“掉期应仅被理解为包括与某种商品挂钩的事件合约”，而不是与某种未来事件的结果挂钩。但定义掉期的美国法律“没有这种限制性语言”，且其他几家法院已经“发现涉及体育赛事结果的事件合约……”