AI’s finally expensive enough to make Wall Street nervous
AI’s finally expensive enough to make Wall Street nervous
AI 的成本终于高到让华尔街感到不安了
It’s earnings season, and investors got an unpleasant surprise from Google: an increase on its spending estimate, to as much as $205 billion — from the last quarter’s projection of up to $190 billion. Even the lower end of Google’s new projected range — $195 billion — is much more than the company had previously forecast as its top end spending. 财报季来临，谷歌给投资者带来了一个不愉快的惊喜：其支出预期从上季度的最高 1900 亿美元上调至 2050 亿美元。即便按谷歌新预测范围的下限——1950 亿美元计算——也远高于该公司此前预期的支出上限。
Now, look, I recognize that there’s an impulse to say things like “What’3 $15 billion between friends?” but from an investor’s perspective, Google has essentially said that it can’t accurately forecast its costs, which is a scary thing. Plus, Google is spending more money than it’s making. And Google is also facing competitive pressures from Chinese AI tools, as well as pricing pressure to keep the cost of its models low. 当然，我知道人们可能会冲动地说“朋友之间 150 亿美元算什么？”，但从投资者的角度来看，谷歌本质上是在承认它无法准确预测成本，这是一件可怕的事情。此外，谷歌目前的支出已经超过了收入。同时，谷歌还面临着来自中国 AI 工具的竞争压力，以及为了保持模型低成本而带来的定价压力。
You don’t have to be a finance genius to figure out that spending more than you make isn’t an ideal business practice. What’s more, increased spending in an environment where you have to either keep your prices static or drop them doesn’t bode well. You’re spending more and getting the same amount back, or — worse — spending more for less revenue. 你不需要成为金融天才也能明白，入不敷出绝非理想的商业模式。更糟糕的是，在必须维持价格不变甚至降价的环境下增加支出，这绝非好兆头。这意味着你投入了更多，回报却原地踏步，甚至更糟——投入更多，收入却更少。
“A reminder of funding strain in the AI build-out.” “这是 AI 建设中资金紧张的一个警示。”
These pressures aren’t just on Google. They’re on the entire AI ecosystem. Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft will all report their earnings this week, and there are plenty of people who think they will also announce they are spending more than expected on the data center buildout. 这些压力并非谷歌独有，而是整个 AI 生态系统共同面临的问题。Meta、亚马逊和微软都将在本周发布财报，许多人认为，它们也将宣布在数据中心建设上的支出超出了预期。
There are a few other things happening at the same time that suggest investors are getting nervous. First of all, people seem to have finally noticed that SpaceX sucks; as of this writing, its shares are worth almost half as much as they were during its peak. Second, investors are nervous about Oracle’s datacenter buildout debt, and it’s worth keeping in mind that Oracle is the public market’s stand-in for OpenAI. Third, Nvidia has been engaging in rounds of deal talks worth a combined three-quarters of a trillion dollars. Nvidia — even more so than OpenAI — is at the center of the circular financing in the AI ecosystem. If it is pumping more money into supporting the AI buildout, that may be an indication that the actual demand is weaker than expected. 与此同时，还有其他一些迹象表明投资者正变得焦虑。首先，人们似乎终于意识到 SpaceX 的表现不尽如人意；截至本文撰写时，其股价已较峰值缩水近一半。其次，投资者对甲骨文（Oracle）建设数据中心所产生的债务感到担忧，值得注意的是，甲骨文在公开市场上被视为 OpenAI 的替代标的。第三，英伟达一直在进行多轮交易谈判，总价值高达 7500 亿美元。英伟达——甚至比 OpenAI 更甚——处于 AI 生态系统循环融资的核心。如果它正在投入更多资金来支持 AI 建设，这可能表明实际需求比预期的要弱。
Specifically, Nvidia guaranteeing OpenAI’s debt, a deal worth $250 billion, is “as much a reminder of funding strain in the AI build-out as it is a demand signal,” Billy Leung, Global X Management’s tech sector investment strategist, told Bloomberg. Global X Management 的科技行业投资策略师 Billy Leung 对彭博社表示，英伟达为 OpenAI 的债务提供担保（这笔交易价值 2500 亿美元），“既是 AI 建设中资金紧张的警示，也是一个需求信号。”
On top of all that, a Chinese start-up released a new model, and people get nervous every time that happens. One reason for that nervousness is that China’s biggest constraint is that they — at least theoretically, don’t have the same kind of access to GPUs as US companies, and yet their AI systems are still competitive. If that is indeed what is happening, there’s an end in sight to Nvidia (and other chipmakers’) cash bonanza. What’s more, it may mean that companies are building too many data centers. 除此之外，一家中国初创公司发布了新模型，每次这种情况发生时，人们都会感到紧张。这种焦虑的一个原因是，中国最大的制约因素是——至少在理论上——他们无法像美国公司那样获得同等水平的 GPU，但他们的 AI 系统依然具有竞争力。如果事实确实如此，那么英伟达（及其他芯片制造商）的现金盛宴可能即将终结。更重要的是，这可能意味着企业正在建设过多的数据中心。
I’ve spoken to a lot of smart people who are more optimistic than I am about the AI boom. (I have been asking how AI companies plan to actually make money for three years now, and I still have not received a satisfactory answer.) All of them think we will likely overbuild data centers during this period of exuberance. They also think that a lot of AI companies will die off when the inevitable correction comes. They are invested in the space anyway because they think the companies that survive will make them more money than they will lose on the ones that die off. 我与许多比我更看好 AI 热潮的聪明人交流过。（三年来，我一直在询问 AI 公司打算如何真正盈利，但至今没有得到满意的答案。）他们都认为，在这个狂热时期，我们很可能会过度建设数据中心。他们也认为，当不可避免的调整到来时，许多 AI 公司将会倒闭。但他们依然选择投资该领域，因为他们认为，幸存下来的公司所带来的收益，将超过那些倒闭公司所造成的损失。
So the AI boosters are watching for the market top just like everyone else; they know it’s inevitable. It’s hard to figure out what the market top is in advance, of course. But some investors are clearly starting to get cold feet about the whole AI thing, and they’re moving their money elsewhere. 因此，AI 的支持者们和其他人一样，都在密切关注市场顶部；他们知道这是不可避免的。当然，很难提前判断市场顶部在哪里。但一些投资者显然已经开始对整个 AI 热潮感到退缩，并正在将资金转移到其他地方。
We may very well get earnings from the other big tech companies that reassure investors, and this period of AI anxiety will pass. On the other hand, if you’re looking for top signals, Elon Musk is a pretty good one, and SpaceX did just go public. Best of luck to all of us, I guess! 其他大型科技公司的财报很可能会让投资者感到安心，这段 AI 焦虑期也会随之过去。另一方面，如果你在寻找市场见顶的信号，埃隆·马斯克就是一个很好的指标，而 SpaceX 刚刚上市。我想，祝我们大家好运吧！