Actually, Starliner might fly into space this year
Actually, Starliner might fly into space this year
事实上，Starliner 今年或许就能飞向太空
When we last checked in on Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft in February, NASA was announcing that it had formally classified the 2024 crewed flight of the Starliner spacecraft as a “Type A” mishap, an acknowledgement that the test flight was a serious failure. At the time, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said the space agency was working with Boeing to “fully understand the risks associated” with the Starliner spacecraft, and to remediate them. Starliner would not fly its next mission, a cargo flight to the International Space Station, until those problems were identified and remediated. He declined to put a date on the test flight. However, it now appears this work is proceeding apace.
当我们二月份最后一次关注波音公司的 Starliner（星际客机）时，NASA 宣布已正式将 Starliner 2024 年的载人飞行归类为“A 类”事故，这承认了该次试飞是一次严重的失败。当时，NASA 局长贾里德·艾萨克曼（Jared Isaacman）表示，航天局正在与波音公司合作，以“充分了解与 Starliner 航天器相关的风险”，并进行补救。在这些问题得到识别和解决之前，Starliner 不会执行下一次任务（即前往国际空间站的货运飞行）。他当时拒绝为试飞设定日期。然而，目前看来这项工作进展迅速。
“Going quite well”
“进展相当顺利”
During a quarterly earnings call on Tuesday, Boeing Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg offered some encouraging remarks in response to an analyst’s question about Starliner and other space projects at the company. “The redesign of the Starliner deficiencies is going quite well, and we’re feeling pretty good about that,” Ortberg said. The deficiencies he referred to primarily involve the vehicle’s propulsion system, which imperiled the flight of NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunny Williams to the International Space Station during Starliner’s first crewed mission. The astronauts had to be returned to Earth on a Crew Dragon vehicle in early 2025.
在周二的季度财报电话会议上，波音公司首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格（Kelly Ortberg）在回应分析师关于 Starliner 及公司其他太空项目的提问时，发表了一些令人鼓舞的言论。奥特伯格表示：“针对 Starliner 缺陷的重新设计进展相当顺利，我们对此感觉良好。”他所指的缺陷主要涉及该航天器的推进系统，该系统在 Starliner 的首次载人任务中危及了 NASA 宇航员布奇·威尔莫尔（Butch Wilmore）和苏尼·威廉姆斯（Sunny Williams）前往国际空间站的飞行。这两位宇航员最终不得不于 2025 年初搭乘“载人龙飞船”（Crew Dragon）返回地球。
During the earnings call Ortberg suggested much of that work was completed, and that the primary issue now is scheduling a launch date with NASA for Starliner to ferry cargo to the space station to ensure there was an open docking port and astronaut time to unload the vehicle. “We’ve got to work with NASA to align on the launches,” Ortberg said. “I don’t at this time anticipate that’s going to create a cost problem for us, but we do have some uncertainty here that we’ve got to work with NASA to get that put to bed, and we are working with them right now.”
在财报电话会议中，奥特伯格暗示大部分工作已经完成，目前的主要问题是与 NASA 协调 Starliner 向空间站运送货物的发射日期，以确保有空余的对接端口以及宇航员有时间卸载货物。“我们必须与 NASA 合作以协调发射，”奥特伯格说，“目前我预计这不会给我们带来成本问题，但我们确实存在一些不确定性，需要与 NASA 合作解决，我们目前正在与他们沟通。”
An official confirmed to Ars that this is indeed the case, that the primary factor now for when Starliner launches is port availability on the space station. It is therefore possible that Starliner launches this year. If this cargo test flight goes well, and modifications to Starliner address the vehicle’s propulsion concerns, a crewed mission is possible in late 2027. Further delays, Ortberg indicated during the call, would only further put Boeing into the red on the fixed-price contract the company signed with NASA in 2014 under the Commercial Crew program. To date Boeing has taken approximately $2 billion in charges due to delays in Starliner’s development, and the need for additional test flights after various software and propulsion failures.
一位官员向 Ars 证实了这一点，即目前影响 Starliner 发射时间的主要因素是空间站的对接端口可用性。因此，Starliner 今年是有可能发射的。如果这次货运试飞顺利，且对 Starliner 的改进解决了推进系统的问题，那么在 2027 年底进行载人任务是有可能的。奥特伯格在电话会议中指出，进一步的延误只会让波音在 2014 年与 NASA 签署的“商业载人计划”（Commercial Crew program）固定价格合同中亏损更多。迄今为止，由于 Starliner 的开发延误以及在多次软件和推进系统故障后需要进行额外的试飞，波音公司已经承担了约 20 亿美元的费用。
Dragon’s dilemma
“龙飞船”的困境
If Starliner were to come online in the next year or two, it would do so at an intriguing moment in crew access to low-Earth orbit. As Ars previously reported, there are uncertainties about the availability of Crew Dragon in the 2030s, and more recently SpaceX has been telling industry officials that it plans to retire Crew Dragon (which flies on the Falcon 9 rocket) no later than 2030. This raises serious concerns for not just NASA, which may seek to fly to the International Space Station into the early 2030s, but also for planned private space stations intended to take its place. These companies are having difficulties negotiating crew transportation services as a result.
如果 Starliner 能在未来一两年内投入使用，那将处于载人进入近地轨道的关键时刻。正如 Ars 此前报道的那样，2030 年代“载人龙飞船”的可用性存在不确定性。最近，SpaceX 一直在向行业官员表示，计划最迟在 2030 年退役“载人龙飞船”（该飞船由猎鹰 9 号火箭发射）。这不仅引起了 NASA 的严重担忧（NASA 可能寻求在 2030 年代初继续飞往国际空间站），也让计划取代空间站的私人空间站项目感到不安。因此，这些公司在协商载人运输服务时遇到了困难。
Crew Dragon is, for now at least, by far the preferred option. Not only has it proven to be reliable, the vehicle also offers the lowest cost due to its reusability and the fact that it flies on the Falcon 9 rocket. Starliner, by contrast, has several disadvantages. Its Service Module, which houses all of the costly propulsion systems, does not return to Earth after each flight but rather burns up in the atmosphere. Sources said this expendable module costs tens of millions of dollars. There is also the fact that, after its initial run of NASA missions, Starliner will have no rocket following the retirement of the Atlas V vehicle. United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket is an option, but there would be not-inconsiderable costs to human-rate the rocket, and it would be more expensive than a Falcon 9.
至少目前来看，“载人龙飞船”是迄今为止的首选方案。它不仅已被证明是可靠的，而且由于其可重复使用性以及由猎鹰 9 号火箭发射，该飞船的成本也是最低的。相比之下，Starliner 有几个缺点。其服务舱（Service Module）容纳了所有昂贵的推进系统，但每次飞行后并不会返回地球，而是在大气层中烧毁。消息人士称，这个一次性模块的成本高达数千万美元。此外，在完成最初的 NASA 任务后，随着 Atlas V 火箭的退役，Starliner 将面临没有火箭可用的局面。联合发射联盟（ULA）的火神（Vulcan）火箭是一个选择，但将其进行载人认证需要不菲的成本，而且它比猎鹰 9 号更昂贵。
Could someone else acquire Starliner?
是否会有其他人收购 Starliner？
Boeing did begin shopping some of its space assets, including Starliner, a year and a half ago. No sale has been closed however, and one person told Ars that it is because Boeing has been asking too high a price. One potential industry partner with deep pockets, Blue Origin, has instead decided to press on with development of its own in-house crew vehicle. In a world where SpaceX seeks to retire Dragon in favor of Starship, and in which the space community is not yet comfortable launching humans on Starship, and in which Starliner is actually flying, things could get interesting. One thing does seem clear. No matter what happens, the cost of human spaceflight into low-Earth orbit during the 2030s is going to be significantly more expensive than the cost in the 2020s, at least until Starship really takes off.
一年半前，波音公司确实开始兜售其部分太空资产，包括 Starliner。然而，目前尚未达成任何交易。一位知情人士告诉 Ars，这是因为波音的要价太高。另一位财力雄厚的潜在行业合作伙伴蓝色起源（Blue Origin）则决定继续开发自己的载人飞船。在一个 SpaceX 寻求用“星舰”（Starship）取代“龙飞船”，而航天界尚不敢放心用“星舰”载人，且 Starliner 确实在飞行的情况下，局势可能会变得非常有趣。有一点似乎很明确：无论发生什么，2030 年代进入近地轨道的载人航天成本将比 2020 年代昂贵得多，至少在“星舰”真正成熟并大规模应用之前是这样。