DOGE Veterans Are Landing Big Jobs at Prediction Markets
DOGE Veterans Are Landing Big Jobs at Prediction Markets
DOGE（政府效率部）老兵正在预测市场领域获得重要职位
Polymarket’s every move is under close scrutiny these days as the prediction market giant fights dozens of legal battles about how it can operate. But one hiring decision has remained under the radar: Late last year, Polymarket brought on former Department of Government Efficiency affiliate Jonathan Mendelson as a senior strategic executive.
如今，预测市场巨头 Polymarket 的一举一动都受到密切关注，因为它正深陷数十场关于其运营方式的法律纠纷之中。但有一项人事任命却鲜为人知：去年年底，Polymarket 聘请了前“政府效率部”（DOGE）成员乔纳森·门德尔松（Jonathan Mendelson）担任高级战略高管。
Before his stint at Elon Musk’s so-called DOGE, Mendelson worked as an investor for the venture capital firm Accel, which invests in technology companies, in San Francisco. At DOGE, Mendelson was technically employed by the General Services Administration but worked as an adviser to Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Paul Atkins. Mendelson was there for less than a year. Polymarket, which currently faces an investigation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, declined to comment for this story. The SEC did not respond to requests for comment.
在加入埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）所谓的“DOGE”之前，门德尔松曾在旧金山的风险投资公司 Accel 担任投资人，该公司主要投资科技企业。在 DOGE 任职期间，门德尔松名义上受雇于总务管理局（GSA），但实际上担任证券交易委员会（SEC）主席保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）的顾问。门德尔松在那里工作的时间不到一年。目前正面临商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）调查的 Polymarket 拒绝就本文置评。SEC 也未回应置评请求。
Mendelson isn’t the only former DOGE affiliate in a position of power in a prediction market. Elie Mishory, a former CFTC regulator who helped develop the agency’s framework for prediction markets, worked as Kalshi’s general counsel and chief regulatory officer in 2025 before stepping down to lead DOGE’s efforts at the SEC, where he worked with Mendelson. In June, he took a role as the chief regulatory and legal affairs officer at Novig, a newer, well-funded sports-focused prediction market. “Elie has been at the center of the most consequential regulatory developments in prediction markets—he helped bring them from a fringe idea to the center of the national conversation,” Jacob Fortinsky, Novig’s cofounder and chief executive, said in a statement announcing his hire.
门德尔松并不是唯一一位在预测市场身居要职的前 DOGE 成员。伊莱·米肖里（Elie Mishory）曾是 CFTC 的监管官员，曾协助制定了该机构的预测市场框架。他在 2025 年担任过 Kalshi 的总法律顾问兼首席监管官，随后离职去领导 DOGE 在 SEC 的工作，并与门德尔松共事。今年 6 月，他出任了 Novig 的首席监管与法律事务官，这是一家资金雄厚、专注于体育赛事的初创预测市场平台。Novig 的联合创始人兼首席执行官雅各布·福廷斯基（Jacob Fortinsky）在宣布其入职的声明中表示：“伊莱一直处于预测市场监管变革的核心——他帮助这些市场从边缘概念转变为全国讨论的焦点。”
Mishory tells WIRED that joining a prediction market company was a “natural dovetail” from his mission at the SEC for DOGE. There, he says he prioritized talking to staffers about how to streamline operations, and then tried to implement their suggestions on how to change administrative processes or get rid of redundant software. He was quick to note that his experience at DOGE was “atypical,” in part because he didn’t focus on cutting staff. (The SEC did lose 18 percent of its staff in 2025; unlike DOGE-ravaged agencies like the United States Agency for International Development, most of the cuts were voluntary buyouts.)
米肖里告诉《连线》（WIRED）杂志，加入预测市场公司是他此前在 SEC 为 DOGE 执行任务的“自然衔接”。他表示，在 SEC 时，他优先与员工沟通如何精简运营，并尝试落实他们关于改变行政流程或剔除冗余软件的建议。他特别指出，他在 DOGE 的经历是“非典型”的，部分原因是他并没有专注于裁员。（SEC 在 2025 年确实流失了 18% 的员工；但与美国国际开发署等受 DOGE 重创的机构不同，SEC 的大部分减员属于自愿买断。）
“My version of DOGE was to find the people who were the experts,” he says. “The people who actually used the software, not just the people who would buy the software, to give them a voice.” In Mishory’s eyes, this resembles the way that prediction markets “democratize” knowledge by rewarding people according to how well they perform. He also sees overlap in the appetite for risk in both DOGE and in prediction markets. Indeed, the way that DOGE brought on young, inexperienced engineers to remake the federal government mirrors how many of the big prediction market companies, including Polymarket and Novig, are steered by twentysomethings with thin résumés.
“我所理解的 DOGE 是去寻找那些专家，”他说，“是那些真正使用软件的人，而不是仅仅负责购买软件的人，要让他们有发言权。”在米肖里看来，这与预测市场通过奖励表现优异者来“民主化”知识的方式如出一辙。他还认为 DOGE 和预测市场在风险偏好上存在重叠。事实上，DOGE 引入年轻、缺乏经验的工程师来重塑联邦政府的方式，与许多大型预测市场公司（包括 Polymarket 和 Novig）由履历尚浅的二十多岁年轻人掌舵的现状如出一辙。
These hires have been made at a tumultuous, politically charged moment for the industry. As prediction markets have exploded in popularity, many state regulators and federal lawmakers are calling for stricter guardrails on how they operate, arguing that they facilitate corruption and violate state gambling laws.
这些招聘发生在该行业动荡且充满政治色彩的时刻。随着预测市场的日益普及，许多州监管机构和联邦立法者呼吁对其运营方式实施更严格的限制，理由是这些市场助长了腐败并违反了各州的赌博法。
In many ways, the industry represents the zenith of the strain of startup culture that valorizes speed in a quest to remake institutions, while regulators struggle to keep up. Although many detractors say prediction markets’ offerings are sports betting products in disguise, the leaders of these companies aim to compete with the world’s largest commodities and futures markets. They have found allies within the Trump administration—Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi, and the Trump family–owned social media company, Truth Social, has a marketing collaboration with Crypto.com’s prediction market offering.
在许多方面，该行业代表了那种崇尚速度、试图重塑体制的创业文化的巅峰，而监管机构却难以跟上其步伐。尽管许多批评者认为预测市场的产品不过是变相的体育博彩，但这些公司的领导者旨在与全球最大的大宗商品和期货市场竞争。他们已经在特朗普政府内部找到了盟友——小唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump Jr.）同时担任 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 的顾问，而特朗普家族拥有的社交媒体公司“真实社交”（Truth Social）也与 Crypto.com 的预测市场产品达成了营销合作。