The loss of Situational Awareness
The loss of Situational Awareness
“情境感知”的丧失
By Elizabeth Lopatto | Jul 30, 2026 作者：Elizabeth Lopatto | 2026年7月30日
I am not by any means an expert at finance but I think I do now have some advice for people who are: Do not name your hedge fund anything that will be hilarious if it blows up. Don’t use a name like “Long-Term Capital Management,” or “Amaranth Advisors” (named for the floral symbol for immortality). Certainly do not call yourself “Situational Awareness,” which might as well just be “Hubris, Inc.”
我绝非金融专家，但我现在想给业内人士提个建议：千万别给你的对冲基金起一个在基金崩盘时会显得极其滑稽的名字。别用“长期资本管理公司”（Long-Term Capital Management）或“苋菜顾问公司”（Amaranth Advisors，以象征永生的花卉命名）这类名字。当然，更别叫自己“情境感知”（Situational Awareness），这名字简直和叫“傲慢有限公司”（Hubris, Inc.）没什么两样。
Anyway, Situational Awareness, the hedge fund started by a 24-year-old former OpenAI employee that focuses on artificial intelligence bets, has sold most or all, depending on who’s reporting, of its entire public stock portfolio to Ken Griffin’s Citadel after several bad weeks for AI stocks, and that’s the situation we are all now aware of. You may recall earlier this week I noted the market had gotten particularly nervous about AI risk; as it turns out, we have discovered one firm that was swimming without a bathing suit.
总之，这家由一位24岁的前OpenAI员工创办、专注于人工智能押注的对冲基金“情境感知”，在人工智能股票经历了几周的惨淡行情后，已将其全部或大部分（取决于不同媒体的报道）公开股票投资组合卖给了肯·格里芬（Ken Griffin）的城堡投资公司（Citadel）。这就是我们现在所“感知”到的情境。你可能还记得本周早些时候我曾提到，市场对人工智能风险变得格外紧张；事实证明，我们发现了一家“裸泳”的公司。
How bad is it? Well, according to CNBC, the fund was worth $45 billion at the start of July. It is now worth $10 billion, after the sale of assets to Griffin. The previous record-holder on all-time trading losses was Archegos Capital Management, which lost $8 billion in ten days in 2021, according to The Wall Street Journal. If these numbers hold, Situational Awareness’ AI bets lost three times as much.
情况有多糟？据CNBC报道，该基金在7月初时价值450亿美元。在向格里芬出售资产后，其价值现已缩水至100亿美元。据《华尔街日报》报道，此前有史以来最大的交易亏损纪录保持者是Archegos资本管理公司，该公司在2021年的十天内亏损了80亿美元。如果这些数字属实，“情境感知”在人工智能上的押注亏损额是前者的三倍。
Every detail of this disaster is funnier than the last. Situational Awareness had a staff of eight, of whom four were investment professionals. “The fund’s largest holdings at the end of the first quarter included Nebius Group, Sandisk, Micron and CoreWeave, according to filings,” CNBC wrote. “All four of those stocks are down more than 35 percent this month.” I expect we will hear more in the coming days, especially from the Wall Street professionals who were on the other side of these jokers’ trades.
这场灾难的每一个细节都比上一个更荒谬。“情境感知”共有8名员工，其中4名是投资专业人士。CNBC写道：“根据备案文件，该基金第一季度末的最大持仓包括Nebius Group、闪迪（Sandisk）、美光（Micron）和CoreWeave。这四只股票本月跌幅均超过35%。”我预计未来几天我们会听到更多消息，尤其是来自那些在这些“小丑”交易对手方的华尔街专业人士的声音。
“Basically, this investment firm will be kind of like a brain trust on AI.”
“基本上，这家投资公司将成为人工智能领域的智囊团。”
How did we get here? Situational Awareness LP was named for a series of facile essays about machine intelligence published by the improbably-named Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24-year-old mastermind of the hedge fund. “We are building machines that can think and reason,” he writes, betraying that he has no idea what thinking could possibly mean. “By 2025/26, these machines will outpace many college graduates. By the end of the decade, they will be smarter than you or I; we will have superintelligence, in the true sense of the word. Along the way, national security forces not seen in half a century will be unleashed, and before long, The Project will be on. If we’re lucky, we’ll be in an all-out race with the CCP; if we’re unlucky, an all-out war.”
我们是怎么走到这一步的？“情境感知”有限合伙公司（Situational Awareness LP）的名字来源于一系列关于机器智能的浅薄文章，作者是这位名字听起来不太真实的24岁基金操盘手利奥波德·阿申布伦纳（Leopold Aschenbrenner）。他写道：“我们正在制造能够思考和推理的机器。”这暴露了他根本不知道“思考”究竟意味着什么。“到2025/26年，这些机器将超越许多大学毕业生。到本十年末，它们将比你我更聪明；我们将拥有真正意义上的超级智能。在此过程中，半个世纪以来未见的国家安全力量将被释放，不久之后，‘该项目’（The Project）就会启动。如果我们幸运的话，我们将与中共进行全面竞赛；如果不幸的话，那就是全面战争。”
There is a part of me that wants to go line-by-line to dunk on every claim here, beginning with the very first sentence, “You can see the future first in San Francisco,” but I am going to stifle the impulse. The essays are the theoretical underpinnings of the hedge fund. The upshot is that artificial general intelligence is real (lol) and will arrive in 2027 (lmao). So the entire point of the hedge fund was to dump as much money as possible into AI stocks and then get very, very rich.
我内心深处很想逐行反驳这里的每一个论点，从第一句“你可以在旧金山率先看到未来”开始，但我还是克制住了这种冲动。这些文章是该对冲基金的理论基础。其结论是：通用人工智能是真实的（笑死），并将于2027年到来（笑到打滚）。所以，这家对冲基金的全部意义就在于尽可能多地将资金投入人工智能股票，然后变得非常有钱。
“Basically, this investment firm will be kind of like a brain trust on AI,” Aschenbrenner told Dwarkesh Patel in a four-hour podcast interview, the preferred intellectual medium of the Silicon Valley elite. “We’re going to have way more situational awareness than any of the people who manage money in New York. We’re definitely going to do great on investing, but it’s the same sort of situational awareness that is going to be important for understanding what’s happening, being a voice of reason publicly, and being able to be in a position to advise.”
“基本上，这家投资公司将成为人工智能领域的智囊团，”阿申布伦纳在接受德瓦克什·帕特尔（Dwarkesh Patel）长达四小时的播客采访时说道，这是硅谷精英们最喜欢的知识传播媒介。“我们将比纽约任何管理资金的人拥有多得多的情境感知。我们的投资肯定会做得很好，但这种情境感知对于理解正在发生的事情、在公共场合发出理性的声音以及能够处于咨询地位同样重要。”
I really cannot begin to explain how much this essay’s bad graphs impressed A Certain Kind of Silicon Valley Guy. Axios wrote breathlessly about the essay that “his opus is a useful, eye-opening synthesis of high-level Silicon Valley conversations.” Aschenbrenner’s insights “expanded my perspective as an AI practitioner beyond just the technical aspects,” wrote Shav Vimalendiran, a co-founder of SAMMY Labs, an AI company that is meant to simplify legal statutes. You know who else liked it? Ivanka Trump, who called it “an excellent and important read.”
我真的无法解释这篇文章中那些糟糕的图表是如何让“某种硅谷人”印象深刻的。Axios网站气喘吁吁地写道，他的大作是“对硅谷高层对话的一次有用且令人大开眼界的综合”。SAMMY Labs（一家旨在简化法律条文的人工智能公司）的联合创始人沙夫·维马伦迪兰（Shav Vimalendiran）写道，阿申布伦纳的见解“作为一名人工智能从业者，拓宽了我在技术层面之外的视野”。你知道还有谁喜欢它吗？伊万卡·特朗普（Ivanka Trump），她称其为“一篇出色且重要的读物”。
Why would these purportedly serious people buy in on a 24-year-old’s very first hedge fund?
为什么这些自诩严肃的人会买账一个24岁年轻人的第一只对冲基金？
Situational Awareness’s backers included Patrick and John Collison, who cofounded Stripe, and two Meta AI leaders, Daniel Gross and Nat Freedman. The fund’s director of research was Carl Shulman, who’d worked at Peter Thiel’s Clarium Capital. Eventually, Jane Street — the Wall Street firm budding young Effective Altruists, including Sam Bankman-Fried, join — bought in too. “Jane Street’s investment in Situational Awareness is particularly notable because the firm rarely allocates capital to outside money managers,” The Wall Street Journal wrote in June.
“情境感知”的支持者包括Stripe的联合创始人帕特里克·科里森（Patrick Collison）和约翰·科里森（John Collison），以及两位Meta AI的领导者丹尼尔·格罗斯（Daniel Gross）和纳特·弗里德曼（Nat Freedman）。该基金的研究总监是曾在彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）的Clarium Capital工作过的卡尔·舒尔曼（Carl Shulman）。最终，简街资本（Jane Street）——那家包括萨姆·班克曼-弗里德（Sam Bankman-Fried）在内的年轻“有效利他主义者”们趋之若鹜的华尔街公司——也参与了投资。《华尔街日报》在6月份写道：“简街资本对‘情境感知’的投资尤其引人注目，因为该公司很少将资本分配给外部基金经理。”
Why would these purportedly serious people buy in on a 24-year-old’s very first hedge fund? My best guess is that Aschenbrenner’s investors were relying on the social bonafides he had cultivated. Social proof is the laziest and most disastrous way to vet people — ask any Theranos investor, or for that matter, anyone who had Bernie Madoff managing their money — but I suppose it’s good enough for Silicon Valley.
为什么这些自诩严肃的人会买账一个24岁年轻人的第一只对冲基金？我最大的猜测是，阿申布伦纳的投资者们依赖的是他所建立的社会信誉。社会认同是审查一个人最懒惰、也最灾难性的方式——去问问任何一个Theranos的投资者，或者任何曾让伯尼·麦道夫（Bernie Madoff）管理资金的人就知道了——但我猜这对硅谷来说已经足够了。
At age 17, Aschenbrenner was called “an economics prodigy” by Tyler Cowen, a libertarian economist fa…
17岁时，阿申布伦纳被自由意志主义经济学家泰勒·考恩（Tyler Cowen）称为“经济学神童”……