China could supply EV manufacturing boom with recycled EVs

中国有望通过回收电动汽车来支撑其电动汽车制造业的繁荣

While recycling is a mathematically obvious response to the finite, non-renewable nature of many resources, the economic math is often challenging. For many materials, it can be hard to compete with virgin materials on a cost basis. Fast-moving technologies like electric vehicles throw in an added complication: By the time a car is scrapped, the industry may have moved on to a different battery chemistry. That reduces the value of recycling the car’s battery back into the production chain. Still, a study led by Xin Xiong at Nanjing University finds that in China, recycling could become the dominant source of many key materials needed to manufacture EV components over the coming decades.

尽管从数学角度来看，回收利用是应对许多资源有限且不可再生性质的必然选择，但其经济账往往很难算。对于许多材料而言，在成本基础上与原生材料竞争非常困难。电动汽车等快速发展的技术又增加了一个复杂因素：当一辆汽车报废时，行业可能已经转向了不同的电池化学体系。这降低了将汽车电池回收回生产链的价值。不过，由南京大学熊欣（音译）领导的一项研究发现，在中国，未来几十年内，回收利用可能成为制造电动汽车零部件所需许多关键材料的主要来源。

Modeling manufacturing needs

制造业需求建模

The researchers set out to model how the supply of recycled materials compares to manufacturing demand in China between 2010 and 2050. It covers materials relevant to batteries across hybrid, battery-electric, and even fuel-cell vehicles (lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, phosphorus, sodium, sulfur, and graphite), as well as several critical elements used in electric motors (copper, neodymium, dysprosium, samarium, and cerium). The researchers considered four scenarios for technological progression. Some see battery and motor chemistry slowly transition to technologies like solid-state lithium, sodium batteries, or motors with reduced rare-earth content. Other scenarios transition more quickly.

研究人员着手对 2010 年至 2050 年间中国的回收材料供应与制造业需求进行建模对比。该模型涵盖了混合动力、纯电动甚至燃料电池汽车电池相关的材料（锂、钴、镍、锰、磷、钠、硫和石墨），以及电动机中使用的几种关键元素（铜、钕、镝、钐和铈）。研究人员考虑了四种技术演进方案。一些方案设想电池和电机化学体系缓慢过渡到固态锂电池、钠离子电池或减少稀土含量的电机等技术。其他方案则过渡得更快。

The model calculates the “circularity potential” of each element over time—how much of manufacturing demand can be supplied by the flow of recycled material in that same year. It also factors in recent Chinese policies, which aim to increase recycling rates of certain battery elements from the current 40 percent to a new standard of at least 98 percent, and to increase the share of EVs in new sales from 45 percent to 60 percent by 2030. Though hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles eventually fade out, the sales of battery electric vehicles continued to increase all the way to 2050 in their model. This leaves the number of vehicles hitting recyclers lagging behind but also steadily increasing. (The model assumes that battery replacement will be common, since batteries can lose capacity long before a vehicle hits end-of-life, primarily in commercial settings with heavy use. Between that and China’s battery-swapping stations, this means extra batteries being manufactured and recycled.)

该模型计算了每种元素随时间推移的“循环潜力”——即当年制造业需求中有多少可以由回收材料流来供应。它还考虑了中国近期的政策，这些政策旨在将某些电池元素的回收率从目前的 40% 提高到至少 98% 的新标准，并计划到 2030 年将电动汽车在新车销量中的占比从 45% 提高到 60%。尽管混合动力和插电式混合动力汽车最终会逐渐淘汰，但在他们的模型中，纯电动汽车的销量一直增长到 2050 年。这使得进入回收环节的车辆数量虽然滞后，但也在稳步增加。（该模型假设电池更换将成为常态，因为电池在车辆报废前很久就会失去容量，尤其是在高强度的商业应用场景中。再加上中国的换电站，这意味着会有额外的电池被制造和回收。）

Nevertheless, the amount of manufacturing demand that can be met by recycling generally rises to pretty high levels across all scenarios, though the patterns look a little different. Early on, the supply of recycled materials rises as the growth of EVs eventually drives a corresponding growth in dead EVs.

尽管如此，在所有情景下，通过回收能够满足的制造业需求总量通常都会上升到相当高的水平，尽管其模式略有不同。在早期，随着电动汽车的增长最终带动报废电动汽车的相应增长，回收材料的供应量也会随之上升。

Details matter

细节至关重要

But for some elements like cobalt, demand can drop as the industry pivots to low-cobalt battery chemistries—and the recycled supply quickly exceeds demand. Conversely, the amount of nickel and manganese needed for batteries could increase drastically over time, keeping the share that recycling can supply pretty flat. The story for elements in motors is similar, but it’s also quite sensitive to the nature of the technological change—like if cerium is used to displace more expensive rare-earth elements, for example.

但对于钴等某些元素，随着行业转向低钴电池化学体系，需求可能会下降，而回收供应量则会迅速超过需求。相反，电池所需的镍和锰的数量可能会随时间推移而急剧增加，使得回收供应所占的份额保持平稳。电机中元素的表现也类似，但它们对技术变革的性质也非常敏感——例如，如果使用铈来替代更昂贵的稀土元素。

Depending on which scenario you find most plausible and which promising technologies you think will take over, this model can show you which demands can be met by effective recycling and which we’ll remain dependent on mining to supply. This all hinges on the word “effective” in “effective recycling.” The researchers highlight a number of links in the recycling chain that will need to be strengthened to reach the high end of their numbers. China is using regulations to address a couple of issues, mandating “battery passports” that identify each battery and its chemical makeup and working to force more scrapped batteries to be sent to officially licensed recyclers.

根据你认为最合理的情景以及你认为哪些有前途的技术将占据主导地位，该模型可以向你展示哪些需求可以通过有效的回收来满足，以及哪些需求我们将继续依赖开采来供应。这一切都取决于“有效回收”中的“有效”二字。研究人员强调了回收链中需要加强的多个环节，才能达到他们预测的高端数值。中国正在利用法规来解决一些问题，例如强制推行“电池护照”以识别每块电池及其化学成分，并努力强制将更多的报废电池送往官方许可的回收商处。

But the researchers also note that China has yet to mandate some level of recycled content in new battery production. And they say the complex recycling chain will be vulnerable to bottlenecks as it rapidly scales up to handle more electric vehicles over time. Just as the graphite in batteries is often not recycled now because its value is low, the rise of technologies like sodium batteries could be a bit of a double-edged sword, too. Using a less expensive material makes batteries cheaper, but it also means their contents are less valuable to recyclers. But although technological change complicates the goal of recycling EVs to build new ones, this model shows that the math could work out pretty well for many materials.

但研究人员也指出，中国尚未强制要求在新电池生产中必须含有一定比例的回收材料。他们表示，随着回收链为处理日益增多的电动汽车而迅速扩大规模，其复杂性将使其容易出现瓶颈。正如电池中的石墨目前因价值较低而往往不被回收一样，钠离子电池等技术的兴起也可能是一把双刃剑。使用更便宜的材料确实降低了电池成本，但也意味着其内容物对回收商而言价值较低。尽管技术变革使回收旧电动汽车以制造新车的这一目标变得复杂，但该模型表明，对于许多材料而言，这笔经济账是完全行得通的。