Should you still buy your next smartphone — or subscribe to it instead?
Should you still buy your next smartphone — or subscribe to it instead?
你应该继续购买下一部智能手机，还是选择订阅制？
The smartphone industry’s next battleground may not be the phone itself, but how consumers get it. As premium devices become more expensive, Apple, Samsung, and others are betting that leasing, subscriptions, and guaranteed buyback programs can make upgrading more attractive. 智能手机行业的下一个战场可能不再是手机本身，而是消费者获取手机的方式。随着高端设备价格日益昂贵，苹果、三星及其他厂商正押注于租赁、订阅和保值回购计划，以提升用户升级设备的意愿。
This week, Apple launched Apple Upgrade in the U.S. in partnership with Klarna, allowing consumers to lease an iPhone, Mac, iPad, or Apple Watch for a monthly fee with the option to upgrade, return, or eventually purchase the device. Samsung, meanwhile, has been offering its Galaxy Forever program in India, combining financing with a guaranteed buyback to let consumers upgrade flagship Galaxy smartphones more predictably. 本周，苹果公司与 Klarna 合作在美国推出了“Apple Upgrade”计划，允许消费者通过支付月费租赁 iPhone、Mac、iPad 或 Apple Watch，并可选择升级、退还或最终购买该设备。与此同时，三星在印度推出了“Galaxy Forever”计划，将分期付款与保值回购相结合，让消费者能更可控地升级其 Galaxy 旗舰手机。
On its earnings call on Thursday, Apple CEO Tim Cook said the Upgrade program is intended to make it easier for customers — particularly those who prefer upgrading on a regular schedule — to access the company’s latest products through a leasing plan. He also said Apple’s relatively high resale values make the model well suited to such plans. 在周四的财报电话会议上，苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克表示，该升级计划旨在让客户（尤其是那些习惯定期升级的用户）通过租赁方案更轻松地获得苹果的最新产品。他还提到，苹果产品相对较高的转售价值使得这种模式非常适合此类计划。
The shift comes as consumers keep their smartphones for longer, driven by rising prices as tighter supplies push up memory and other component costs, and incremental hardware improvements that have kept older devices capable for longer. That has given manufacturers fewer opportunities to sell new devices while also reducing the flow of handsets into the booming refurbished market. 这一转变的背景是消费者更换手机的周期变长了。这主要是由于供应紧张推高了内存及其他零部件成本，导致手机价格上涨；同时，硬件的渐进式改进也使得旧设备能更长时间地保持良好性能。这不仅减少了厂商销售新机的机会，也减少了流入蓬勃发展的翻新机市场的手机数量。
Analyst firm Counterpoint Research expects the average global replacement cycle to stretch to four years in 2026, up from 3.5 years in 2025. The trend is evident in the United States, where premium smartphone owners now keep their devices for an average of 42 months, up from 38 to 40 months in previous years, according to market intelligence firm IDC. 分析机构 Counterpoint Research 预计，全球平均换机周期将从 2025 年的 3.5 年延长至 2026 年的 4 年。这一趋势在美国尤为明显，据市场情报公司 IDC 数据显示，高端智能手机用户持有设备的时间平均已达 42 个月，高于往年的 38 至 40 个月。
That has prompted smartphone makers to experiment with leasing, subscriptions, and guaranteed buyback programs. “These programs fundamentally do not work unless a secondary market exists,” said Max Weinbach, an analyst at Creative Strategies. “The only way to sustain a used or refurbished market is to make sure devices enter that market, and leasing and guaranteed buyback programs make that possible.” 这促使智能手机制造商开始尝试租赁、订阅和保值回购计划。Creative Strategies 分析师 Max Weinbach 表示：“除非存在二级市场，否则这些计划从根本上是行不通的。维持二手或翻新机市场的唯一途径是确保设备能进入该市场，而租赁和保值回购计划恰好实现了这一点。”
The industry’s challenge, however, is not just to get consumers to upgrade more often — it is also to persuade them that these new ownership models make more financial sense than buying outright. 然而，该行业面临的挑战不仅是让消费者更频繁地升级，还要说服他们相信这些新的所有权模式比直接购买在经济上更划算。
When leasing makes sense
什么时候租赁更划算？
“Leasing definitely isn’t for everyone, but it can make sense, especially for someone who upgrades often,” Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst at online lending marketplace LendingTree, told TechCrunch. Consumers who keep their phones for three, four, or five years, however, are often better off buying them outright than opting for a subscription or leasing model, he said. 在线借贷平台 LendingTree 的首席消费金融分析师 Matt Schulz 对 TechCrunch 表示：“租赁绝对不适合所有人，但对于经常升级设备的人来说，这确实有意义。”他指出，对于那些手机使用三、四年甚至五年的消费者来说，直接购买通常比选择订阅或租赁模式更划算。
For those who upgrade every year or two, however, the economics can be closer than they appear. “It’s important to stress the fact this is an upgrade program that’s done via a lease, rather than just a leasing program,” Weinbach said. “The intent is that the user will turn in their device every 12 to 36 months because they intend to upgrade regardless.” 然而，对于那些每隔一两年就升级一次的用户来说，这两种模式的经济账可能比看起来更接近。Weinbach 说：“必须强调的是，这是一个通过租赁实现的升级计划，而不仅仅是一个租赁计划。其初衷是用户无论如何都会升级，因此他们会每 12 到 36 个月交回旧设备。”
Based on his analysis of Apple’s new program, Weinbach told TechCrunch that consumers who already replace their phones frequently could pay roughly the same — or, in some cases, even less — than they would by buying a device outright and trading it in later, particularly on higher-storage models whose trade-in values do not always reflect their higher purchase prices. 基于对苹果新计划的分析，Weinbach 告诉 TechCrunch，对于那些本来就频繁更换手机的消费者来说，这种模式的支出与直接购买后再进行以旧换新大致相当，有时甚至更低。尤其是对于大容量存储机型，其以旧换新的价值往往无法完全体现其高昂的购买价格。
The programs, however, are not just about making premium smartphones more affordable. Smartphone makers also see them as a way to keep customers within their ecosystems as devices become more expensive and replacement cycles lengthen. 然而，这些计划的目的不仅仅是为了让高端智能手机更易于负担。随着设备价格上涨和换机周期延长，智能手机制造商也将此视为将客户留在其生态系统内的一种手段。
“The real driver isn’t shorter upgrade cycles; it’s protecting margin and retention as pricing pressure mounts,” IDC’s associate vice president of devices research Navkendar Singh told TechCrunch. Rather than simply trying to get consumers to replace their phones more often, brands are increasingly trying to turn costly smartphone purchases into more predictable monthly payments that keep customers within their ecosystems, Singh said. IDC 设备研究副总裁 Navkendar Singh 对 TechCrunch 表示：“真正的驱动力并非缩短升级周期，而是在定价压力增加的情况下保护利润率和用户留存。”Singh 指出，品牌方不再仅仅试图让消费者更频繁地更换手机，而是越来越多地尝试将昂贵的手机购买行为转化为更可预测的月供，从而将客户锁定在自己的生态系统中。
The idea of paying monthly for a smartphone is not new, particularly in the U.S., where wireless carriers have long offered financing and upgrade plans tied to service contracts. However, what is changing is that phone makers are increasingly trying to own that relationship themselves. 按月支付手机费用的概念并不新鲜，尤其是在美国，无线运营商长期以来一直提供与服务合同挂钩的分期付款和升级计划。然而，正在发生的变化是，手机制造商正越来越多地试图亲自掌控这种客户关系。
Carrier financing has long helped make premium smartphones more affordable in the U.S. “It’s the interest-free financing of 36 months and aggressive trade-ins of up to $1,100 that have made the U.S. the region with the highest smartphone average selling prices,” Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, told TechCrunch. The existing financing and trade-in offers have helped Apple and Samsung dominate the U.S. smartphone market with a combined share of more than 80%, per IDC. 运营商的分期付款长期以来帮助降低了美国高端智能手机的购买门槛。IDC 高级研究总监 Nabila Popal 对 TechCrunch 表示：“正是 36 个月的免息分期付款和高达 1100 美元的激进以旧换新政策，使得美国成为智能手机平均售价最高的地区。”据 IDC 数据，现有的分期付款和以旧换新优惠帮助苹果和三星占据了美国智能手机市场超过 80% 的份额。
The shift toward subscriptions and other alternative ownership models is also creating opportunities for startups. BytePe, which offers subscription-style plans for smartphones and other consumer electronics in India, said more than 80% of its customers opt for subscriptions over outright purchases or traditional EMI plans. Founder and CEO Jayant Jha told TechCrunch that BytePe’s typical customers are young professionals in their first or second jobs who want access to premium smartphones without paying the full price upfront or committing to long ownership cycles. 向订阅制及其他替代性所有权模式的转变也为初创公司创造了机会。在印度提供智能手机及其他消费电子产品订阅服务的 BytePe 表示，超过 80% 的客户选择订阅而非直接购买或传统的 EMI（分期付款）计划。创始人兼首席执行官 Jayant Jha 告诉 TechCrunch，BytePe 的典型客户是处于职业生涯初期或第二份工作的年轻专业人士，他们希望使用高端智能手机，但又不想一次性支付全款或被长期的所有权周期所束缚。
The trend is not limited to the U.S. and India. Companies such as the UK’s Raylo and Germany’s Grover have built businesses around leasing smartphones and other consumer electronics through monthly subscription plans. Analysts expect more companies to follow. “The primary objective is to increase customer lifetime value by improving retention, creating predictable upgrade cycles and securing a steady pipeline of trade-in devices for ce…” 这一趋势不仅限于美国和印度。英国的 Raylo 和德国的 Grover 等公司已经围绕通过月度订阅计划租赁智能手机和其他消费电子产品建立了业务。分析师预计会有更多公司效仿。其主要目标是通过提高留存率、创造可预测的升级周期，并确保稳定的以旧换新设备来源，来提升客户的终身价值。