China’s EV Market Is Booming. There’s Just One Problem
China’s EV Market Is Booming. There’s Just One Problem
中国电动汽车市场蓬勃发展，但面临一个难题
After spending the past decade building the world’s largest electric vehicle market, China is confronting one consequence of its success: a growing wave of batteries nearing the end of their service life. 在过去十年里，中国建立了全球最大的电动汽车市场，如今正面临其成功带来的一个后果：越来越多的电池即将达到使用寿命。
Annual sales of battery-powered vehicles in China, including fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, have surged from about 1 million in 2018 to more than 16 million in 2025. With EV batteries typically lasting about eight years, the country is entering its first major wave of battery retirements. 中国电池动力汽车（包括纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车）的年销量已从2018年的约100万辆激增至2025年的超过1600万辆。由于电动汽车电池的使用寿命通常约为八年，中国正进入第一波大规模电池退役潮。
The number of batteries requiring disposal or reprocessing is expected to grow rapidly in the years ahead. That poses a major waste-management and recycling challenge for the nation. 未来几年，需要处置或再处理的电池数量预计将迅速增长。这对中国来说是一个重大的废物管理和回收挑战。
China reported 400,000 metric tons of EV battery waste last year. A joint study by researchers in China and the United States projected that the figure could grow to 1.69 million metric tons in 2030 and 22.39 million metric tons by 2040. 中国去年报告的电动汽车电池废弃量为40万公吨。中美研究人员的一项联合研究预测，到2030年，这一数字可能增长至169万公吨，到2040年将达到2239万公吨。
For years, critics of electric vehicles have argued that their environmental benefits are overstated. EVs eliminate tailpipe emissions, but their full life-cycle effects—including the environmental and safety risks posed by discarded lithium-ion batteries—remain a concern. Governments largely chose to accelerate EV adoption anyway, betting that recycling systems would eventually catch up. 多年来，电动汽车的批评者一直认为其环境效益被夸大了。电动汽车消除了尾气排放，但其全生命周期的影响——包括废弃锂离子电池带来的环境和安全风险——仍然令人担忧。各国政府大多还是选择了加速推广电动汽车，押注回收系统最终能跟上步伐。
China began building a recycling system early and has created enough nominal capacity to handle the emerging wave. But much of the country’s used-battery supply continues to flow through uncertified recyclers, which poses serious environmental and safety risks linked to contamination and improper disposal. In a case announced in Jiangxi Province in 2024, an uncertified company was found to have improperly dismantled 364 metric tons of waste lithium iron phosphate batteries. The resulting contamination caused vegetation to die across 6 acres of forest and killed more than 420 cubic feet of standing timber. 中国很早就开始建立回收系统，并创造了足够的额定产能来应对这一浪潮。但中国大部分废旧电池仍流入未经认证的回收商手中，这带来了与污染和不当处置相关的严重环境和安全风险。在2024年江西省通报的一起案件中，一家无资质公司被发现违规拆解了364公吨废旧磷酸铁锂电池。由此造成的污染导致6英亩森林植被死亡，并损毁了超过420立方英尺的立木。
Although recycling technology has improved, sustaining a profitable battery recycling business remains challenging. Because China leads the world in EV adoption, how Beijing manages both the risks and opportunities of battery retirement could help shape the industry’s global model. 尽管回收技术有所进步，但维持盈利的电池回收业务仍然充满挑战。由于中国在电动汽车普及方面处于世界领先地位，北京如何管理电池退役带来的风险与机遇，可能有助于塑造该行业的全球模式。
China began developing a formal EV battery recycling system as early as 2018. More than 150 companies have since been placed on the government’s certification “white list,” authorizing them to process retired vehicle batteries. 中国早在2018年就开始开发正式的电动汽车电池回收系统。此后，已有150多家公司被列入政府的认证“白名单”，授权其处理退役车用电池。
By 2023, certified companies had a combined annual processing capacity of 623,000 metric tons, more than 1.5 times the volume of batteries retired that year. Yet they handled only about 25 percent of those batteries, highlighting a gap in recycling efforts. 到2023年，获认证企业的年总处理能力达到62.3万公吨，是当年退役电池总量的1.5倍多。然而，它们仅处理了其中约25%的电池，凸显了回收工作中的缺口。
An investigation published earlier this year by Yicai, a Chinese financial news outlet, illustrated the gap between official capacity and actual operations. Its reporters attempted to contact every company on the white list and found that more than 100 were no longer operating or could not be reached. 中国财经媒体《第一财经》今年早些时候发表的一项调查，揭示了官方产能与实际运营之间的差距。其记者试图联系白名单上的每一家公司，结果发现其中100多家已停止运营或无法取得联系。
In the paper, “The Urgency to Regulate Informal EV Battery Recycling in China,” researchers described China’s effort to control the informal market as a “losing battle.” 在题为《中国监管非正规电动汽车电池回收的紧迫性》的论文中，研究人员将中国控制非正规市场的努力描述为一场“注定失败的战斗”。
“There is poisoning, explosion, and fire caused by improper battery dismantling, waste water being dumped into rivers, contaminants being seeped into groundwater and polluting the soil,” Laixiang Sun, a professor at the University of Maryland and coauthor of the paper, told Inside Climate News. “不当拆解电池会导致中毒、爆炸和火灾，废水被排入河流，污染物渗入地下水并污染土壤，”马里兰大学教授、该论文合著者孙来祥（音译）告诉《气候内幕》（Inside Climate News）。
“There is the lithium, copper, and nickel in the batteries,” said Yan Wang, a professor of mechanical engineering at Worcester Polytechnic Institute. “You cannot dump them into the environment.” “电池里含有锂、铜和镍，”伍斯特理工学院机械工程教授王岩（音译）说。“你不能把它们倾倒在环境中。”
Yan Wang is also a cofounder of Ascend Elements, one of the largest battery recycling companies in the United States. He served as the company’s chief scientist from 2015 to 2022. 王岩也是美国最大的电池回收公司之一 Ascend Elements 的联合创始人。他曾于2015年至2022年担任该公司首席科学家。
A sprawling network of informal operators is undercutting certified recyclers in China. They can pay more for used batteries because they avoid many of the costs associated with safe testing, dismantling, and pollution control. Selling batteries to them is often more convenient for vehicle owners. 在中国，一个庞大的非正规经营者网络正在削弱获认证回收商的竞争力。他们能为废旧电池支付更高的价格，因为他们规避了许多与安全测试、拆解和污染控制相关的成本。对于车主来说，把电池卖给他们往往更方便。
Because retired batteries retain economic value, they seldom go directly to landfills. In principle, batteries that remain in good condition can be repurposed for less demanding uses, while others can be recycled into raw materials for new batteries. 由于退役电池仍具有经济价值，它们很少直接进入垃圾填埋场。原则上，状况良好的电池可以重新用于要求较低的用途，而其他电池则可以回收利用，作为制造新电池的原材料。
Repurposing, however, requires recyclers to test and grade batteries, modules, and sometimes individual cells. It is a technically complex and expensive process. A Tesla Model Y battery pack, for example, can contain more than 4,000 individual cells. 然而，梯次利用需要回收商对电池、模组，有时甚至是单个电芯进行测试和分级。这是一个技术复杂且昂贵的过程。例如，一个特斯拉 Model Y 电池组可能包含超过4000个电芯。
Unlicensed operators can skip much of that testing and dismantle packs at far lower cost. Some then sell used cells for unapproved applications, including aftermarket range-extending battery packs. Because the cells may not have been properly tested, those modifications can create substantial fire and safety risks. 无证经营者可以省去大部分测试环节，以低得多的成本拆解电池组。有些人随后将旧电芯出售用于未经批准的用途，包括售后市场的增程电池组。由于这些电芯可能未经妥善测试，此类改装可能会带来巨大的火灾和安全风险。
In November, a Xiaomi SU7 electric sedan caught fire in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province. The owner later told the Sanxiang Metropolis Daily that the battery involved was an aftermarket range extender rather than the vehicle’s original factory-installed battery. 11月，江苏常州一辆小米 SU7 电动轿车起火。车主后来告诉《三湘都市报》，涉事电池是售后市场的增程器，而非车辆原厂安装的电池。
Recycling batteries into raw materials appears to offer a more commercially promising path. 将电池回收为原材料似乎提供了一条更具商业前景的道路。
Companies can process batteries into “black mass,” a powder containing lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and other materials. Those materials can then be separated, refined, and reused in new batteries. Some advanced processes can recover more than 95 percent of certain critical battery materials. 企业可以将电池加工成“黑粉”（black mass），这是一种含有锂、钴、镍、锰、石墨及其他材料的粉末。这些材料随后可以被分离、提炼并重新用于新电池中。一些先进工艺可以回收超过95%的某些关键电池材料。
Unlicensed recyclers, lacking in technology and infrastructure, are unlikely to achieve such high recovery rates. Their lower costs can come not only at the expense of the environment, but also at the expense of workers who risk exposure to toxic materials. 缺乏技术和基础设施的无证回收商不太可能达到如此高的回收率。他们的低成本不仅是以牺牲环境为代价，也是以牺牲工人的健康为代价，因为工人面临着接触有毒物质的风险。
“It is about health, about human rights, about pollution in the air, water, and soil,” Sun said. “It is an…” “这关乎健康、人权，以及空气、水和土壤的污染，”孙说。“这是一个……”