The SpaceX Falcon Lunar Crash Is a Warning for Moon Bases
The SpaceX Falcon Lunar Crash Is a Warning for Moon Bases
SpaceX猎鹰火箭撞月：给未来月球基地敲响警钟
A SpaceX rocket that has been drifting in space for a year and a half is set to crash into the moon on Wednesday, stirring up a debris cloud that could be visible from Earth. The impact raises questions on the future of lunar exploration, including how to protect any future moon bases from space junk.
一枚在太空中漂流了一年半的SpaceX火箭定于周三撞击月球，届时将激起一片从地球上可能观测到的碎片云。这次撞击引发了人们对未来月球探索的担忧，包括如何保护未来的月球基地免受太空垃圾的威胁。
The rocket set for moon impact is the upper stage of a Falcon 9 that transported a pair of lunar landers. While the landers successfully reached the surface, the rocket was left adrift since it did not have enough fuel to return to Earth or enter a stable orbit.
这枚即将撞月的火箭是“猎鹰9号”的二级助推器，它曾负责运送一对月球着陆器。虽然着陆器成功抵达了月球表面，但由于燃料不足以返回地球或进入稳定轨道，该火箭被遗弃在太空中漂流。
Weighing 4 metric tons, the rocket is expected to strike the lunar surface at a speed of approximately 5,400 mph—about seven times the speed of sound. Without an atmosphere to slow the projectile down, the impact will cause an explosion equivalent to 3 metric tons of TNT, leaving a crater that’s projected to be up to 27 meters in diameter and 5 meters deep.
这枚火箭重达4公吨，预计将以每小时约5400英里的速度撞击月球表面，约为音速的七倍。由于月球没有大气层来减缓飞行器的速度，撞击将产生相当于3公吨TNT炸药的爆炸威力，预计会留下一个直径达27米、深5米的陨石坑。
The upper stage is expected to hit the surface around 6:34 am UTC on Wednesday, likely making impact near Einstein Crater on the western edge of the moon’s near side. The Americas will have the best view of this impact. While it won’t be visible to the naked eye, viewers should be able to spot the debris plume through a good telescope for a few minutes.
该二级火箭预计将于周三协调世界时（UTC）上午6:34左右撞击月球表面，撞击点可能位于月球正面西缘的爱因斯坦陨石坑附近。美洲地区将是观测此次撞击的最佳地点。虽然肉眼无法直接看到，但通过高性能望远镜，观测者应该能在几分钟内捕捉到碎片云。
A lunar crash landing visible from Earth will be a spectacle, one that raises concerns about the future of the moon. Multiple countries are planning uncrewed lunar missions, which could clutter the area around the moon. This SpaceX rocket won’t be the first to accidentally crash into the moon. In March 2022, a Chinese Long March 3C rocket also struck the lunar surface and left a crater that’s 29 meters wide. China and the US are also pushing to build bases on the surface in the coming decades.
一场从地球上可见的月球撞击将是一场奇观，但也引发了人们对月球未来的担忧。多个国家正在规划无人月球任务，这可能会导致月球周围区域变得拥挤。这枚SpaceX火箭并非首个意外撞击月球的飞行器。2022年3月，中国的一枚长征三号丙运载火箭也曾撞击月球表面，留下了一个29米宽的陨石坑。中国和美国也都在推动在未来几十年内于月球表面建立基地。
Bill Gray, the creator of the Project Pluto initiative to develop software and tools to track the orbits of asteroids, comets, and artificial satellites, was the first to calculate the trajectory of the impending Falcon 9 crash. He was also part of a team that worked on a preprint study released last month detailing the collision.
“冥王星计划”（Project Pluto）的创始人比尔·格雷（Bill Gray）是首位计算出这枚“猎鹰9号”火箭撞击轨迹的人，该计划旨在开发用于追踪小行星、彗星和人造卫星轨道的软件与工具。他也是上个月发布的一项详细研究该碰撞事件的预印本论文的研究团队成员之一。
The crash landing is ”an opportunity to test pipelines for measuring flash properties to locate impact events seismically, and to better understand the multi-modal hazards posed to future lunar infrastructure and astronauts from space debris impacting the Moon,” the study states.
该研究指出，这次撞击着陆是“一个测试测量闪光特性以通过地震定位撞击事件的流程的机会，同时也能让我们更好地理解太空碎片撞击月球对未来月球基础设施和宇航员所构成的多重危害。”
Although building a moon research center capable of supporting a sustained human presence will take at least a decade, NASA’s missions to construct the first facilities are expected to launch in the coming years as part of the Artemis program.
尽管建立一个能够支持人类长期驻留的月球研究中心至少需要十年时间，但作为“阿尔忒弥斯”（Artemis）计划的一部分，美国国家航空航天局（NASA）建设首批设施的任务预计将在未来几年内启动。
“These sorts of things are going to happen more and more often. And as we have more astronauts on the lunar surface, more lunar infrastructure habitats, for example, we need to understand how much of a risk these impact events actually pose,” Benjamin Fernando, a researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico and coauthor of the preprint study, tells ABC News.
“这类事件将会越来越频繁地发生。随着未来有更多的宇航员在月球表面活动，以及更多的月球基础设施（如栖息地）建成，我们需要了解这些撞击事件究竟构成了多大的风险，”新墨西哥州洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室的研究员、该预印本论文的合著者本杰明·费尔南多（Benjamin Fernando）在接受美国广播公司（ABC）新闻采访时表示。
The risk posed by space debris is part of a growing list of hazards that cast doubt on the safety of any long-term project on the moon. In addition to the potential for space junk to wreak havoc on the lunar surface, natural events such as meteorite strikes also threaten any future activities. But with any potential lunar bases still a decade or more away, there’s ample time for researchers to look at the hazards and plan for them.
太空碎片带来的风险是日益增加的危害清单中的一部分，这些危害让人们对月球上任何长期项目的安全性产生了怀疑。除了太空垃圾可能对月球表面造成的破坏外，陨石撞击等自然事件也威胁着未来的活动。但由于潜在的月球基地距离建成至少还有十年或更久，研究人员有充足的时间来审视这些风险并制定应对计划。
“This is an ideal way of studying both the direct risks, the risk of being hit by debris or being blinded by a flash of light, but also the indirect risk, the risk of being hit by a cloud of ejected material and having that disrupt or interfere with spacecraft functions in lunar orbit as well,” Fernando says.
“这是研究直接风险（如被碎片击中或被闪光致盲）以及间接风险（如被喷射出的物质云击中，从而干扰或破坏月球轨道航天器的功能）的理想方式，”费尔南多说道。