Trump’s AI protectionism has come for robotics

特朗普的 AI 保护主义已延伸至机器人领域

Humanoid robots usually elicit more cringe than awe: They stumble, kick children, and despite advances are still worse at using their hands than my toddler. It’s a nascent industry, and such robots are more commonly seen in viral videos than real workplaces or homes. 人形机器人通常带来的尴尬多于敬畏：它们步履蹒跚、踢到孩子，尽管有所进步，但使用双手的能力甚至还不如我的幼儿。这是一个新兴行业，这类机器人更多出现在病毒式传播的视频中，而非真实的职场或家庭里。

It was a surprise, then, when last week the Federal Trade Commission issued a sweeping ban on foreign imports of advanced robots, including humanoids, quadrupeds, and wheeled robots. The decision, made by an increasingly partisan and Trump-aligned FTC, cites two reasons. One is that foreign-made humanoids will collect so much data—in homes but also potentially at sensitive facilities—that they’d pose a threat to national security. The second is that US robotics companies need protection from Chinese competition to create a more robust and secure domestic supply chain. 因此，当美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）上周发布一项针对先进机器人（包括人形、四足和轮式机器人）的全面进口禁令时，令人感到意外。这一决定由日益党派化且与特朗普立场一致的 FTC 作出，并列举了两个理由。其一是外国制造的人形机器人会收集大量数据——不仅在家庭中，还可能在敏感设施中——从而对国家安全构成威胁。其二是美国机器人公司需要抵御中国竞争，以建立更稳健、更安全的国内供应链。

On its face, it’s a strategy to align political and industry interests that is much older than the Trump administration. Whenever China has gotten good at offering cheap versions of strategic technologies like solar panels, electric vehicles, and drones, the US government has tried to stop it from flooding the market by using tariffs or rules on how government agencies purchase the tech. Such moves are always followed by debates about whether the trade-offs—particularly higher prices for consumers—are worth the benefits. 从表面上看，这是一种协调政治与行业利益的策略，其历史远比特朗普政府久远。每当中国在太阳能电池板、电动汽车和无人机等战略技术领域能够提供廉价产品时，美国政府总会试图通过关税或限制政府机构采购规则来阻止其涌入市场。此类举措总是伴随着关于权衡利弊的争论，尤其是消费者面临的更高价格是否值得这些收益。

But robotics is now best seen as another piece of the AI industry—in many ways its cutting edge. And the Trump administration is taking an increasingly aggressive approach to protecting the US AI industry, reportedly considering a ban on open-source Chinese models that often rival those from OpenAI and Anthropic while costing far less. Such a move would block businesses from realizing an estimated $25 billion in annual savings. 但机器人技术现在最好被视为人工智能产业的一部分——在许多方面甚至是其前沿领域。特朗普政府正采取日益激进的方式来保护美国 AI 产业，据报道正在考虑禁止开源的中国模型，这些模型往往能与 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的产品媲美，但成本却低得多。此举将阻碍企业实现估计每年 250 亿美元的成本节约。

The ban on humanoids, then, should be understood not as another chapter in the old China trade playbook, but as evidence that the Trump administration is expanding its protection of the AI industry beyond today’s leading labs. It is now willing to step in on behalf of an emerging robotics sector that is still barely finding its footing. 因此，对人形机器人的禁令不应被理解为旧版对华贸易剧本的又一章节，而应被视为特朗普政府将其对 AI 产业的保护范围扩大到当前领先实验室之外的证据。它现在愿意为一个尚处于起步阶段的新兴机器人行业出面干预。

Some US robotics companies unsurprisingly welcome the FTC’s new move. Gavin Kenneally, CEO of a company called Ghost Robotics that makes four-legged robots for inspections, says the cybersecurity risks from foreign-made robots are real (an FTC document released as part of the ruling cited an incident in which a man was able to gain control of 7,000 robot vacuum cleaners). “If today’s announcement encourages stronger cybersecurity and a more level competitive environment, that’s good for customers and good for the robotics industry,” Kenneally said in an email. 一些美国机器人公司不出所料地欢迎 FTC 的新举措。生产用于巡检的四足机器人的 Ghost Robotics 公司首席执行官 Gavin Kenneally 表示，外国制造机器人带来的网络安全风险是真实存在的（作为裁决一部分发布的 FTC 文件引用了一起案例，一名男子成功控制了 7,000 台扫地机器人）。Kenneally 在一封电子邮件中表示：“如果今天的公告能促进更强的网络安全和更公平的竞争环境，这对客户和机器人行业都是好事。”

But if the new rule aims to boost US robotics companies, there’s a big flaw. Those companies, as well as academic robotics labs, are hugely reliant on cheap robots from China to do research. They’re building fleets of robots that constantly learn new tasks—from flipping waffles to doing laundry—and frequently buy Chinese humanoids instead of US-made ones. The new ruling “creates a challenge for US humanoid researchers,” says Aaron Prather, director of market intelligence for the Association for Advancing Automation, a robotics trade group. “Chinese models offer the best price-to-capability ratio available.” 但如果新规旨在提振美国机器人公司，则存在一个重大缺陷。这些公司以及学术机器人实验室在进行研究时，极度依赖来自中国的廉价机器人。他们正在构建不断学习新任务（从翻华夫饼到洗衣服）的机器人集群，并经常购买中国的人形机器人而非美国制造的产品。机器人行业贸易组织“推进自动化协会”（Association for Advancing Automation）的市场情报总监 Aaron Prather 表示，这项新裁决“为美国人形机器人研究人员带来了挑战”。“中国模型提供了目前市场上最佳的性价比。”

Prather adds that a recent internal review his organization conducted found that 90% of recent robotics research papers from US universities relied on robots from Unitree, China’s top humanoid robotics company. That price gap can be huge. A four-legged robot from Unitree can cost around $4,600. A comparable one from Boston Dynamics might run to $278,000. If robotics research is stunted because these cheap robots are no longer available, the FTC ruling could slow down the industry, not boost it. Prather 补充说，他所在的组织最近进行的一项内部审查发现，美国大学近期 90% 的机器人研究论文都依赖于中国顶级人形机器人公司宇树科技（Unitree）的产品。价格差距可能非常巨大。宇树的一台四足机器人售价约为 4,600 美元，而波士顿动力公司（Boston Dynamics）的同类产品价格可能高达 278,000 美元。如果因为这些廉价机器人不再可用而导致机器人研究受阻，那么 FTC 的裁决可能会拖慢而非提振该行业。

The US and Chinese robotics industries are in starkly different places. Unitree plans to go public this week, targeting a nearly $6 billion evaluation. No robotics companies in the US offer any meaningful comparison, but those that do exist are undeniably moving fewer robots. Figure’s humanoids are not yet selling at scale, and 1X’s robots aren’t yet shipping to homes. 中美两国的机器人产业处于截然不同的位置。宇树科技计划本周上市，目标估值近 60 亿美元。美国没有任何机器人公司能与之进行有意义的对比，而现有的公司无疑出货量更少。Figure 的人形机器人尚未实现规模化销售，1X 的机器人也尚未进入家庭。

That said, work on humanoids is going increasingly mainstream, as a release from Google last week made clear. The company announced a new AI model meant to make humanoids learn new tasks faster; its most impressive ability appears to be tying a trash bag, but given how finicky robot hands are, that’s real progress. 话虽如此，人形机器人的研究正日益主流化，正如谷歌上周发布的消息所表明的那样。该公司宣布了一款旨在让人形机器人更快学习新任务的新型 AI 模型；其最令人印象深刻的能力似乎是系垃圾袋，但考虑到机器人手部操作的复杂性，这确实是真正的进步。

Even though the many carve-outs in the FTC’s order make its practical impact hard to predict, its symbolic impact is easy to see. The administration sees humanoid robotics not as a novelty, but as a strategic frontier of AI worth protecting from foreign competition. For a technology that until recently was mostly known for falling over onstage, that’s a big change. 尽管 FTC 命令中的许多豁免条款使其具体影响难以预测，但其象征意义显而易见。政府不再将人形机器人视为一种新奇事物，而是将其视为值得保护免受外国竞争的 AI 战略前沿。对于一种直到最近还主要以在舞台上摔倒而闻名的技术来说，这是一个巨大的转变。