Senators demand crackdown on wildfire “prediction markets”

美国参议员要求严厉打击野火“预测市场”

Several US senators have written a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), inquiring about the agency’s “plans to crack down on prediction markets” that offer “contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires.” 几位美国参议员致信美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC），询问该机构是否有“计划打击那些提供‘个人押注野火合约’的预测市场”。

“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering, all so the rich and powerful can profit,” wrote the group of senators, who represent Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. “提供针对破坏性野火的赌注，只会让受灾社区的苦难被轻视，而这一切仅仅是为了让权贵获利，”这群代表俄勒冈州、加利福尼亚州、内华达州、明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州的参议员在信中写道。

The document specifically cites that Polymarket hosted bets in January 2025 on the wildfires in Los Angeles, and it mentions another website which specifically accepts “simulated bets” exclusively on California wildfires. 该文件特别指出，Polymarket 在 2025 年 1 月曾开设过针对洛杉矶野火的赌注，并提到了另一个专门接受针对加州野火“模拟投注”的网站。

“There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful,” the letter continues. “By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.” 信中继续写道：“根据州和地方消防官员的说法，还存在一种加剧的风险，即个人可能会为了确保赌注成功而受到诱惑去纵火。通过提供火灾合约，预测市场网站冒着鼓励人们干预已发生火灾的风险，这引发了关于公共安全和内幕交易的额外担忧。”

The public letter, which was issued Monday, comes as active wildfires continue to burn in significant parts of the Pacific Northwest. On Tuesday, the Spokane County Sheriff’s Office announced the arrest of an arson suspect who is believed to have started one of the blazes currently threatening Spokane, Washington, and the surrounding area. Several hundred buildings have already been destroyed, and approximately one quarter of the city’s population has recently been ordered to evacuate. 这封周一发布的公开信正值太平洋西北地区大片区域野火持续燃烧之际。周二，斯波坎县治安官办公室宣布逮捕了一名纵火嫌疑人，据信他引发了目前威胁华盛顿州斯波坎市及其周边地区的一场火灾。已有数百座建筑物被毁，该市约四分之一的人口近期被下令撤离。

The CFTC did not immediately respond to Ars’ request for comment. Kalshi is one of the major prediction markets. Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana told Ars by email that the company does not allow such wildfire markets “because they create perverse incentives.” CFTC 没有立即回应 Ars 的置评请求。Kalshi 是主要的预测市场之一。Kalshi 发言人伊丽莎白·戴安娜（Elisabeth Diana）通过电子邮件告诉 Ars，该公司不允许此类野火市场存在，“因为它们会产生反向激励（不良动机）。”

But its primary rival, Polymarket, has taken a different approach. A spokesperson for Polymarket told Ars in an emailed statement that the company does not “profit from outcomes,” adding that people “come to Polymarket for information.” 但其主要竞争对手 Polymarket 采取了不同的做法。Polymarket 的一位发言人在一份电子邮件声明中告诉 Ars，该公司不会“从结果中获利”，并补充说人们“来到 Polymarket 是为了获取信息”。

“While we are not blind to the risks, removing these markets does not prevent a tragedy but makes the most accurate information less accessible to the people who need it most,” he wrote. “虽然我们并非看不到风险，但取消这些市场并不能阻止悲剧发生，反而会让最需要这些信息的人更难获得最准确的信息，”他写道。

In the same email, the spokesperson also noted “on background”—a condition to which Ars did not agree—that “Polymarket does not currently have any markets on wildfires and has not for some time.” The spokesperson declined to respond to Ars’ follow-up questions about whether Polymarket was claiming that, by definition, it provides “the most accurate information” to people experiencing a wildfire. 在同一封邮件中，该发言人还以“背景说明”（Ars 并未同意此条件）的方式指出，“Polymarket 目前没有任何关于野火的市场，且已经有一段时间没有此类市场了。”对于 Ars 追问 Polymarket 是否声称其本质上为经历野火的人提供了“最准确的信息”，该发言人拒绝回应。

Perverse incentives

反向激励（不良动机）

For their part, wildfire experts say that they are appalled by the mere existence of prediction markets that allow for trading on these disasters. 野火专家们则表示，对于这种允许对灾难进行交易的预测市场的存在，他们感到震惊。

“[Such markets] could create a perverse incentive for arson or other destructive activities,” Michael Gollner, a professor at the UC Berkeley Fire Research Lab, emailed Ars. “We should not focus our energy on monetizing the outcome of devastating natural disasters. Instead, we should focus our efforts on mitigating these events with targeting investments before they start so that our communities can become more resilient.” 加州大学伯克利分校火灾研究实验室教授迈克尔·戈尔纳（Michael Gollner）在给 Ars 的邮件中写道：“（此类市场）可能会为纵火或其他破坏性活动创造不良动机。我们不应将精力集中在将毁灭性自然灾害的结果货币化上。相反，我们应该致力于在灾难发生前通过定向投资来减轻这些事件的影响，从而使我们的社区更具韧性。”

Riva Duncan, the president of Grassroots Wildland Firefighters, a nonprofit organization made up of current and former federal wildland firefighters, said her community is “pretty disgusted” by these betting markets. 由现任和前任联邦野外消防员组成的非营利组织“草根野外消防员”（Grassroots Wildland Firefighters）主席里瓦·邓肯（Riva Duncan）表示，她的群体对这些博彩市场感到“非常厌恶”。

“To think there are people hoping to make money off tragedy is beyond comprehension,” she emailed Ars. “They should ask some of the folks in Spokane who just lost their homes how they feel about it.” “想到有人希望从悲剧中赚钱，这简直令人无法理解，”她在给 Ars 的邮件中写道，“他们应该去问问斯波坎那些刚刚失去家园的人，看看他们对此有何感想。”