China is Tesla’s cash cow, but for how much longer?

中国是特斯拉的“摇钱树”，但还能持续多久？

Tesla’s factory in Shanghai had its best June ever, according to the China Passenger Car Association. Tesla built 93,579 cars in China that month, a hefty 38 percent increase compared to June 2025, according to CPCA’s data. 根据中国乘用车市场信息联席会（CPCA）的数据，特斯拉上海超级工厂迎来了史上表现最好的六月。当月特斯拉在中国生产了 93,579 辆汽车，较 2025 年 6 月大幅增长了 38%。

But that production isn’t translating into bumper sales to Chinese customers. Rather, sales have been down quarter on quarter in China for more than a year now, particularly as buyers tire of the Model 3 sedan. Almost 40 percent of the EVs that Tesla built in June were destined for export. And in Q2 in total, more than 50 percent—just—of the cars it built were for Europe, Canada, and other Asian markets: 128,394 versus the 126,157 Chinese-built Teslas that were sold to Chinese buyers. 然而，这种产量并没有转化为中国市场销量的激增。事实上，特斯拉在中国的销量已连续一个多季度环比下滑，尤其是消费者对 Model 3 轿车已产生审美疲劳。特斯拉 6 月生产的电动汽车中，近 40% 用于出口。整个第二季度，其生产的汽车中超过 50%（勉强过半）销往了欧洲、加拿大及其他亚洲市场：出口量为 128,394 辆，而中国本土销量为 126,157 辆。

Low labor costs compared to Germany or the US are a big boon here, as are cheaper components from local suppliers. Throw in some export-related tax rebates from the Chinese government, and it’s not hard to see how Tesla’s Shanghai plant is an extremely valuable asset. 与德国或美国相比，低廉的劳动力成本是一大优势，来自本地供应商的廉价零部件也是如此。再加上中国政府提供的出口相关退税政策，不难看出特斯拉上海工厂为何是一项极具价值的资产。

Despite this seemingly critical importance to the automaker at a time when its profit margins are evaporating, Tesla may be contemplating a future without China. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that some Tesla executives have been tasked with separating Chinese and non-Chinese parts of the company, although Tesla denied such preparations were underway. 尽管在利润率不断缩水的当下，上海工厂对特斯拉而言至关重要，但特斯拉或许正在考虑一个“没有中国”的未来。上周，《华尔街日报》报道称，一些特斯拉高管已被委派负责将公司业务中中国与非中国部分进行拆分，尽管特斯拉否认了此类准备工作正在进行。

But Tesla has been working to reduce its dependency on China for the cars it sells in the US, which remains the company’s largest market. New US regulations banning Chinese-linked connected car software went into effect for model-year 2027, and a similar ban on Chinese-linked hardware comes into effect for model-year 2030, meaning cars that will be on US roads in two years. Tesla now no longer imports Chinese-made cars for sale in the US, and it has worked with its North American suppliers to make sure the components it buys don’t have unwanted Chinese origins. 特斯拉一直在努力减少其在美国市场（仍是其最大市场）销售的汽车对中国的依赖。美国针对中国相关联网汽车软件的禁令已于 2027 车型年起生效，针对中国相关硬件的类似禁令将于 2030 车型年起生效，这意味着两年后上路的汽车将受到影响。特斯拉目前已不再进口中国制造的汽车在美国销售，并已与北美供应商合作，确保其采购的零部件不含不合规的中国来源。

Trade restrictions aren’t the reason for the potential divorce, however. Rather, the desire to join up with SpaceX is what is being cited as the driving force. Although SpaceX has started using excess Cybertrucks in its operations, the real desire behind such a marriage is access to investors. As Ars detailed earlier this summer, the S&P 500 index rejected a request by Elon Musk—CEO of both Tesla and SpaceX—to bend the rules (which require, among other things, four consecutive profitable quarters) for the rocket company. 然而，贸易限制并非潜在“分手”的原因。相反，与 SpaceX 合并的愿望被认为是背后的驱动力。尽管 SpaceX 已开始在其运营中使用多余的 Cybertruck，但这种联姻背后真正的渴望是获取投资者。正如 Ars 今年夏天早些时候详细报道的那样，标普 500 指数拒绝了特斯拉和 SpaceX 的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克提出的放宽规则（其中包括要求连续四个季度盈利）的请求，以让这家火箭公司进入指数。

Tesla, though, joined the S&P 500 back at the end of 2020, and if SpaceX merged with it, those efforts by S&P to keep SpaceX from passive investors will be for naught. (Both Tesla and SpaceX are down about 25 percent for the year to date, although obviously SpaceX’s year only began with its IPO in June.) Such a merger would risk being blocked by the US government on national security grounds given the tens of billions of dollars of military contracts between SpaceX and the US government on the one hand, and Tesla’s Chinese operations on the other. 然而，特斯拉早在 2020 年底就已加入标普 500 指数。如果 SpaceX 与其合并，标普阻止 SpaceX 接触被动投资者的努力将付诸东流。（特斯拉和 SpaceX 今年迄今为止股价均下跌了约 25%，尽管 SpaceX 的年度表现显然是从 6 月 IPO 开始计算的。）考虑到 SpaceX 与美国政府之间数百亿美元的军事合同，以及特斯拉在中国的业务，这种合并可能会因国家安全理由而面临被美国政府封杀的风险。

Killing the golden goose doesn’t make sense if you think about it from the perspective of a company that wants to sell more cars profitably. But then, Tesla’s CEO does keep telling us that it’s not a car company anymore, doesn’t he? 如果你从一家希望通过卖车获利的公司角度来看，杀掉这只“金鹅”并不合理。但话说回来，特斯拉的首席执行官一直在告诉我们，它已经不再是一家汽车公司了，不是吗？