This Atlantic hurricane season is looking like a dud, but there will be a price to pay
This Atlantic hurricane season is looking like a dud, but there will be a price to pay
今年大西洋飓风季看似平淡，但代价却不容小觑
The city of Houston, where I live, has been ground zero for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. So far this year there have been two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, that have formed. And the centers of both have passed near or directly over Houston. Two “strikes” in a year might seem notable, but like the middling hurricane season to date, Arthur and Bertha were both middle-of-the road tropical storms in terms of intensity. As a resident of a coastal region prone to hurricanes, one never wants to tempt fate. And in truth, since it is only early August, the bulk of seasonal activity definitely lies ahead of us. But all indications are we can look forward to a quiet season.
我居住的休斯顿市一直是2026年大西洋飓风季的“震中”。今年到目前为止，已经形成了两场被命名的风暴——“亚瑟”（Arthur）和“伯莎”（Bertha），且两者的中心都经过了休斯顿附近或直接穿过该市。一年内遭遇两次“袭击”似乎值得注意，但正如目前平淡的飓风季一样，从强度上看，亚瑟和伯莎都只是中规中矩的热带风暴。作为易受飓风影响的沿海地区居民，人们从不愿拿命运开玩笑。事实上，由于现在才八月初，大部分季节性活动肯定还在后面。但种种迹象表明，我们可以期待一个平静的飓风季。
Why this season should be below normal
为什么本季飓风活动将低于常年？
Why? First, there’s the start. By the metric of “accumulated cyclone energy,” a good measurement of overall intensity and duration of tropical systems, this year’s value to date is less than 30 percent of where things normally are. Historically, the Atlantic basin has usually seen three or four named storms by now, with one of those becoming a hurricane. Additionally, this is almost the time of year when the Atlantic season starts to ramp up. However, things look very quiet for at least the next week or 10 days, and there is no evidence of a bunch of menacing tropical waves starting to emerge off the coast of Africa.
原因何在？首先是开局。以衡量热带系统整体强度和持续时间的指标——“累积气旋能量”（ACE）来看，今年迄今为止的数值不到常年水平的30%。从历史上看，大西洋盆地此时通常已经出现了三到四场命名风暴，其中一场会演变成飓风。此外，现在几乎是大西洋飓风季开始活跃的时候。然而，至少在未来一周到十天内，情况看起来非常平静，也没有迹象表明非洲海岸有大量威胁性的热带波动正在形成。
The leading seasonal hurricane forecaster, Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University, has steadily been revising his outlook downward. In April, he and his team predicted 13 named storms and six hurricanes this season. In his latest, and final, outlook issued Wednesday, he is predicting nine named storms and four hurricanes. He expects the season’s accumulated cyclone energy to only be about 40 percent of normal levels. This would be a well-below-normal season, and certainly a welcome one for coastal residents in the United States from South Texas to Florida to Maine.
领先的季节性飓风预报员、科罗拉多州立大学的菲尔·克洛茨巴赫（Phil Klotzbach）一直在下调他的预测。今年四月，他和他的团队预测本季将有13场命名风暴和6场飓风。在周三发布的最新也是最终的展望中，他预测将有9场命名风暴和4场飓风。他预计本季的累积气旋能量仅为常年水平的40%左右。这将是一个远低于常年的飓风季，对于从南德克萨斯州到佛罗里达州再到缅因州的美国沿海居民来说，这无疑是个好消息。
El Niño is very rapidly strengthening
厄尔尼诺现象正在迅速增强
The primary reason is the strengthening El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which has global weather impacts. Among them is higher wind shear across the Atlantic basin, where a majority of hurricanes form and strengthen. “We are extremely confident that we will have a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season,” Klotzbach said in his latest update. “We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving very high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
主要原因是赤道太平洋地区正在增强的厄尔尼诺现象，它对全球天气产生影响。其中之一就是大西洋盆地的风切变增强，而这里正是大多数飓风形成和加强的地方。“我们非常有信心，在飓风季高峰期将出现强厄尔尼诺现象，”克洛茨巴赫在最新的更新中表示。“我们预计强大的厄尔尼诺现象将成为即将到来的飓风季的主导因素，导致热带大西洋出现极高的垂直风切变。我们预测美国大陆海岸线和加勒比地区遭受大型飓风登陆的概率将远低于平均水平。”
Fewer storms do not mean zero storms, of course. And we very probably will see a handful of serious threats later in August, and during September and October. But the Atlantic seems unlikely to turn into Grand Central Station, with hurricanes tracking hither and thither with hyper intensities. All of that is well and good, but North America—and much of the rest of the planet—is likely to pay a price for a quieter Atlantic season. That’s because this year’s El Niño is not only likely to be strong, it could also become one of the strongest recorded in the last century or so.
当然，风暴减少并不意味着没有风暴。我们很可能会在八月下旬以及九月和十月期间看到少数严重的威胁。但大西洋似乎不太可能变成“中央车站”，让飓风以超强强度四处横行。这一切固然很好，但北美——以及地球上大部分其他地区——很可能要为这个平静的大西洋飓风季付出代价。这是因为今年的厄尔尼诺现象不仅可能很强，甚至可能成为过去一个世纪左右记录中最强的一次。
There’s always a catch
总有代价
Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist who writes at The Climate Brink newsletter, wrote a few weeks ago about emerging data that indicates it is possible this year’s El Niño will be off the charts. “The multi-model median for the event’s peak currently stands at 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record of 2.75C set in 2015-16,” he said. “For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed.”
在《气候边缘》（The Climate Brink）通讯撰稿的气候科学家泽克·豪斯法瑟（Zeke Hausfather）几周前写道，新出现的数据表明，今年的厄尔尼诺现象可能会打破纪录。“目前多模型预测该事件峰值的中间值为3.6摄氏度，比2015-16年创下的2.75摄氏度的历史纪录高出约0.8摄氏度，”他说。“作为参考，过去150年里最强和第五强厄尔尼诺现象之间的差距仅为0.5摄氏度左右。模型预测的情况超出了我们以往观察到的任何范围。”
El Niño has varying impacts around the world (i.e., lower vertical wind shear in the Atlantic), but one thing is consistent. It adds additional fuel to global temperatures already rising due to climate change. This warming impact typically lags the peak of El Niño by several months, so the bulk of global heating will be observed in 2027. This means that global temperatures next year will almost certainly be the hottest ever, further destabilizing our planet’s environment. And it may not be close.
厄尔尼诺现象对世界各地有不同的影响（例如大西洋垂直风切变降低），但有一点是一致的：它为因气候变化而本已上升的全球气温增添了额外的燃料。这种变暖影响通常会滞后于厄尔尼诺现象的峰值几个月，因此全球变暖的大部分影响将在2027年显现。这意味着明年的全球气温几乎肯定会是有史以来最高的，这将进一步破坏我们地球环境的稳定性。而且，这可能还不是终点。