U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
美国经济7月减少2.3万个就业岗位，出现突然逆转
The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, a sign that the labor market had not stabilized after four months of positive growth. The unemployment rate ticked down only slightly to 4.1%. 美国经济在7月份减少了2.3万个就业岗位，这表明劳动力市场在经历了四个月的正增长后尚未企稳。失业率仅微降至4.1%。
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting the release to show 83,000 added roles, more than June’s 57,000. In yet another troubling sign for the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that it revised down the prior two months by a combined 103,000. May’s jobs total was cut by 66,000 to 129,000 total jobs added, while June’s total was lowered by 37,000 to a total gain of 57,000. 道琼斯调查的经济学家此前预计该报告将显示新增8.3万个就业岗位，高于6月份的5.7万个。劳工统计局表示，将前两个月的数据合计下调了10.3万个，这对劳动力市场来说是另一个令人不安的信号。5月份的就业总数被下调了6.6万个，至12.9万个；6月份的总数被下调了3.7万个，至5.7万个。
The hiring data comes against a complicated economic backdrop. The U.S. war with Iran continues without any kind of agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, energy prices remain elevated, even if they are off their highest levels of the year. The change in workers’ average hourly earnings also fell well short of economists’ expectations. Wage growth was 0.1% from June, or 3.2% from one year ago. That’s also below inflation, which was 3.5% in its most recent reading. 这份招聘数据是在复杂的经济背景下发布的。美国与伊朗的战争仍在继续，且尚未达成任何全面重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的协议。因此，能源价格虽然已从年内最高水平回落，但仍处于高位。工人的平均时薪变化也远低于经济学家的预期。工资增长率较6月份增长0.1%，较一年前增长3.2%。这低于最近一次统计中3.5%的通胀率。
“That’s the number that many Americans are focused on right now,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told NBC News. Long pointed out that 3.2% was the lowest wage growth has been in five years. “At the same time, inflation is heating back up again.” “这是许多美国人目前关注的数字，”海军联邦信贷联盟（Navy Federal Credit Union）首席经济学家希瑟·朗（Heather Long）告诉NBC新闻。朗指出，3.2%是五年来工资增长的最低水平。“与此同时，通货膨胀正在重新升温。”
Economists had been expecting wages to continue pacing at 3.5% from a year ago. “The labor market is stalling again,” Long said, also calling the report “bleak.” 经济学家此前预计工资增长将保持在同比3.5%的水平。“劳动力市场再次陷入停滞，”朗说，并称这份报告“令人沮丧”。
Long also pointed to another troubling data point: The labor force participation rate in July was the lowest since February 2021, a sign that workers are dropping out of the workforce. “It’s pretty shocking,” she said. “Over two million people have left the labor force since November.” 朗还指出了另一个令人不安的数据点：7月份的劳动力参与率是自2021年2月以来的最低水平，这表明工人正在退出劳动力市场。“这非常令人震惊，”她说。“自11月以来，已有超过200万人离开了劳动力市场。”
“The magnitude of the payroll miss suggests the labor market may be losing momentum and can no longer be considered the pillar of strength,” said Allianz investment strategist Charlie Ripley. 安联（Allianz）投资策略师查理·里普利（Charlie Ripley）表示：“非农就业数据不及预期的幅度表明，劳动力市场可能正在失去动力，不再被视为经济的支柱。”
The average price of regular gasoline also remains high, at $4.04 per gallon as of Friday morning, up 36% since Feb. 28, when the Iran war began. Inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target at 3.5%. Wages are struggling to keep pace. 普通汽油的平均价格也保持在高位，截至周五上午为每加仑4.04美元，自2月28日伊朗战争开始以来上涨了36%。通胀率仍远高于美联储2%的目标，处于3.5%的水平。工资增长难以跟上通胀步伐。
The BLS said employment contracted the most in “local government education,” which declined by 50,000 roles, likely reflecting teachers during summer break. It also flagged a contraction of 19,000 roles in the retail industry. The financial industry shed 14,000 roles. 劳工统计局表示，“地方政府教育”部门的就业人数萎缩最为严重，减少了5万个岗位，这很可能反映了暑假期间教师的变动。该局还指出零售业减少了1.9万个岗位。金融业减少了1.4万个岗位。
The leisure and hospitality industry also contracted by 40,000 jobs. Economists watch this figure closely because a significant loss at hotels and restaurants could be an early warning sign of a shift in consumer spending. 休闲和酒店业也减少了4万个就业岗位。经济学家密切关注这一数字，因为酒店和餐馆的大幅裁员可能是消费者支出发生转变的早期预警信号。
“In July, employment in health care continued its upward trend,” the BLS said, noting a gain of 22,000 jobs. But it said, that was “a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.” The agency’s data also showed a 5,000 payroll gain in the manufacturing sector in July and an additional 22,000 roles in construction. These bright spots come as the AI data center boom has benefited some industries, but deeply divided many communities where the centers are located. “7月份，医疗保健行业的就业人数继续呈上升趋势，”劳工统计局表示，并指出增加了2.2万个就业岗位。但该局表示，这“比过去12个月的平均月增长速度要慢”。该机构的数据还显示，7月份制造业增加了5000个就业岗位，建筑业增加了2.2万个岗位。这些亮点出现的同时，人工智能数据中心的繁荣虽然使一些行业受益，但也让许多数据中心所在的社区产生了严重分歧。
“Employment showed little change” in July in the mining, oil & gas, transportation and professional & business services sectors, according to BLS. 据劳工统计局称，7月份采矿、石油和天然气、运输以及专业和商业服务行业的“就业人数几乎没有变化”。
Stocks rose after the report, as investors who were concerned the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates breathed a sigh of relief. The S&P 500 closed the day higher by 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite index soared 1.3%. The Russell 2000, which tracks small and medium size firms that can be more sensitive to rate changes, closed the trading session up by 1.1%. 报告发布后股市上涨，此前担心美联储会加息的投资者松了一口气。标普500指数当日收盘上涨0.6%，纳斯达克综合指数飙升1.3%。追踪对利率变化更为敏感的中小型企业的罗素2000指数收盘上涨1.1%。
Bond yields dropped, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to around 4.6%. That Treasury bond specifically drives the direction of consumer lending rates, such as for mortgages, credit cards and personal loans. 债券收益率下降，10年期美国国债收益率跌至4.6%左右。该国债收益率直接影响消费者贷款利率的走向，例如抵押贷款、信用卡和个人贷款。
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.74% on Friday afternoon, its lowest level since June 21. 周五下午，30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率为6.74%，为6月21日以来的最低水平。
The jobs report likely eases some pressure on the Federal Reserve, which had been widely expected to hike the federal funds rate — potentially as soon as September. Before Friday’s report, the futures market indicated the odds of a September rate hike were over 50%. After the jobs numbers were released, those odds fell to about 40%. 这份就业报告可能会减轻美联储的一些压力，此前市场普遍预计美联储将提高联邦基金利率——最早可能在9月份。在周五的报告发布前，期货市场显示9月份加息的可能性超过50%。就业数据公布后，这一概率降至约40%。