2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
2027 年内存产能据传已售罄
It feels like no matter where I look recently, there’s more evidence that the RAM crisis isn’t ending any time soon. Now, a new report suggests that all three memory manufacturers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — have collectively sold through their 2027 memory manufacturing capacity to, you guessed it, AI companies.
最近无论我看向哪里，似乎都有越来越多的证据表明内存危机短期内不会结束。一份新的报告显示，三星、SK 海力士和美光这三家内存制造商已经将其 2027 年的内存产能全部售罄，而买家不出所料，正是那些人工智能公司。
According to a report from Digitimes and spotted by TweakTown, all DRAM and HBM capacity has been sold through for 2027, with no further supply planned. (The companies themselves have not yet confirmed this to be the case.) Of course, that only means that retail prices are going to go up even further in the near future.
根据 Digitimes 的报道以及 TweakTown 的观察，2027 年所有的 DRAM 和 HBM 产能均已售罄，且目前没有进一步的供应计划。（相关公司尚未对此予以证实。）当然，这意味着在不久的将来，零售价格只会进一步上涨。
Selling through all the capacity for next year would be bad enough for consumers, but the problem is that most of the companies buying up this capacity have done so through long-term purchasing agreements, essentially pre-ordering memory that hasn’t even been manufactured yet over a five-year term. Unless more capacity opens up somewhere in the next few years, it’s hard to imagine that RAM will become more affordable and less scarce any time soon.
对于消费者来说，明年的产能被抢购一空已经够糟糕了，但问题在于，大多数抢购这些产能的公司都是通过长期采购协议进行的，本质上是在五年期限内预订了尚未生产的内存。除非未来几年内能有更多产能释放，否则很难想象内存会在短期内变得更便宜、更充足。
It’s not just memory that’s affected. According to that Digitimes report, NAND storage is growing in demand too. Luckily, NAND capacity hasn’t been completely absorbed, because there are more companies supplying the stuff. But it’s not exactly hard to see that SSDs have been growing steadily more expensive over the last six months or so.
受影响的不仅仅是内存。根据 Digitimes 的报道，NAND 存储的需求也在增长。幸运的是，由于供应商较多，NAND 产能尚未被完全吞噬。但显而易见的是，过去六个月左右，固态硬盘（SSD）的价格一直在稳步上涨。
Just look at the Western Digital SN7100, a pretty bog-standard PCIe 4 drive. According to Camelcamelcamel, it was about $110 in January for 1TB of storage, but now it’s 52% more expensive, costing $189 before the tiny discount that Amazon currently has running. If NAND manufacturing capacity grows as scarce as RAM, I can only imagine how much that drive is going to cost this time next year.
以西部数据 SN7100 为例，这是一款非常标准的 PCIe 4 硬盘。据 Camelcamelcamel 数据显示，今年 1 月其 1TB 版本的价格约为 110 美元，但现在价格上涨了 52%，在亚马逊当前的微小折扣前售价已达 189 美元。如果 NAND 的制造产能也像内存一样变得稀缺，我简直不敢想象明年这个时候这款硬盘会涨到什么价格。
All I know is that I grow weary of covering the RAM crisis, but it’s hard to look at anything in the hardware space and not see the effects. Just this month, the Xbox Series X went up in price, and a month ago, the Steam Machine came out at a higher price than Valve wanted because of the higher cost of memory. At this point, all I can do is beg for the AI bubble to burst so I can at least buy a decent kit of RAM for less than 500 dollars again.
我只知道，我已经厌倦了报道内存危机，但在硬件领域，无论看什么都能感受到它的影响。就在本月，Xbox Series X 涨价了；一个月前，Steam Machine 的上市价格也因内存成本高昂而高于 Valve 的预期。事已至此，我只能祈祷 AI 泡沫破裂，这样我至少能再次以低于 500 美元的价格买到一套像样的内存。