Title: The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)

标题：该预测的原始网址在 11 年后将无法访问（2011 年）

Bet 601 Duration 11 years (02011-02022) “The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years.” 赌注 601，持续时间 11 年（2011-2022 年）：“该预测的原始网址 (www.longbets.org/601) 在十一年后将无法访问。”

Detailed Terms » PREDICTOR Jeremy Keith CHALLENGER Matthew A Haughey STAKES $1,000 will go to Bletchly Park Trust if Keith wins, or The Internet Archive if Haughey wins. 详细条款 » 预测者：Jeremy Keith；挑战者：Matthew A Haughey；赌注：如果 Keith 获胜，1,000 美元将捐给布莱切利园信托基金 (Bletchly Park Trust)；如果 Haughey 获胜，则捐给互联网档案库 (The Internet Archive)。

Keith’s Argument “Cool URIs don’t change” wrote Tim Berners-Lee in 01999, but link rot is the entropy of the web. The probability of a web document surviving in its original location decreases greatly over time. I suspect that even a relatively short time period (eleven years) is too long for a resource to survive. I would love to be proven wrong. Keith 的论点：蒂姆·伯纳斯-李 (Tim Berners-Lee) 在 1999 年曾写道“酷的 URI 不会改变”，但链接失效是网络的熵。一个网页文档在其原始位置存活的概率会随着时间的推移而大幅下降。我怀疑即使是相对较短的时间（十一年）对于一个资源的存活来说也太长了。我很乐意被证明是错的。

Haughey’s Argument Though much of the web is ephemeral in nature, now that we have surpassed the 20 year mark since the web was created and gone through several booms and busts, technology and strategies have matured to the point where keeping a site going with a stable URI system is within reach of anyone with moderate technological knowledge. My oldest sites are going on 13 years old at the time of this bet and the original URL scheme still functions via 301 redirects to a final format we selected about six years ago. Haughey 的论点：虽然网络的大部分本质上是短暂的，但现在距离网络诞生已经超过 20 年，并经历了多次繁荣与萧条，技术和策略已经成熟到任何具备中等技术知识的人都可以通过稳定的 URI 系统来维持网站运行。在下注时，我最古老的网站已经运行了近 13 年，其原始 URL 方案仍然通过 301 重定向到我们大约六年前选择的最终格式来正常工作。

Detailed Terms On February 22nd, 2022 from 00:01 UTC until 23:59 UTC, entering the characters http://www.longbets.org/601 into the address bar of a web browser or command line tool (like curl) OR using a web browser to follow a hyperlink that points to http://www.longbets.org/601 MUST return an HTML document that still contains the following text: “The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years.” A 301 redirect from www.longbets.org/601 to a different URL containing that text would also fulfill those conditions. If those conditions are met, Matt wins. If those conditions aren’t met, Jeremy wins. 详细条款：在 2022 年 2 月 22 日 UTC 时间 00:01 至 23:59 期间，在网络浏览器或命令行工具（如 curl）的地址栏中输入 http://www.longbets.org/601，或者使用网络浏览器点击指向 http://www.longbets.org/601 的超链接，必须返回一个仍然包含以下文本的 HTML 文档：“该预测的原始网址 (www.longbets.org/601) 在十一年后将无法访问。” 从 www.longbets.org/601 到包含该文本的另一个 URL 的 301 重定向也满足这些条件。如果满足这些条件，Matt 获胜。如果未满足这些条件，Jeremy 获胜。