AI Could Help Fossil Fuel Companies Create More Emissions
AI Could Help Fossil Fuel Companies Create More Emissions
人工智能可能助推化石燃料公司产生更多排放
The emissions from powering data centers rightly get a lot of attention. But new research from former Microsoft sustainability workers cautions that the way artificial intelligence enhances productivity in the oil and gas industry could be much more damaging to the planet. 为数据中心供电所产生的排放理应受到高度关注。但来自前微软可持续发展员工的一项新研究警告称，人工智能在石油和天然气行业中提升生产力的方式，可能对地球造成更大的破坏。
Published last week in the journal npj Climate Action, the research finds that AI use could significantly increase global energy emissions simply by enabling the fossil fuel industry to produce more oil and gas. At the low end, the research finds that the additional yearly emissions could be equal to Mexico’s; at the high end, AI boosting the fossil fuel industry could add as much greenhouse gas emissions as Russia, the world’s fourth-largest emitter. 这项研究于上周发表在《npj气候行动》（npj Climate Action）期刊上。研究发现，人工智能的使用可能仅仅通过助力化石燃料行业生产更多的石油和天然气，就显著增加全球能源排放。研究显示，在保守估计下，每年增加的排放量可能相当于墨西哥全国的排放量；而在高估值下，人工智能对化石燃料行业的推动所增加的温室气体排放量，可能相当于全球第四大排放国俄罗斯的排放总量。
That increase in emissions, the paper finds, outweighs the benefits AI provides to developing solar, wind, and other clean technologies. It also significantly outpaces projections of emissions from the global data center buildout. 论文指出，这种排放量的增加超过了人工智能在开发太阳能、风能和其他清洁技术方面所带来的益处。它也远远超过了全球数据中心建设所带来的排放预测。
The relationship between technology companies and fossil fuels is “a self-reinforcing effect between supply and demand,” says Will Alpine, one of the authors of the research. “One of the key insights of our paper is that you cannot treat them independently. They are two sides of the same coin.” 该研究的作者之一威尔·阿尔派恩（Will Alpine）表示，科技公司与化石燃料之间的关系是“一种供需之间的自我强化效应”。“我们论文的一个关键见解是，你不能将它们独立看待。它们是同一枚硬币的两面。”
Alpine and his wife and coauthor, Holly, are former Microsoft sustainability workers with years of experience between them at the company. They quit their jobs at the start of 2024 because of the company’s continued work with the oil and gas industry and began publicly campaigning to draw attention to the relationship between AI and fossil fuels. 阿尔派恩和他的妻子兼合著者霍莉（Holly）都是前微软可持续发展员工，两人在公司拥有多年的工作经验。由于公司持续与石油和天然气行业合作，他们于2024年初辞职，并开始公开呼吁人们关注人工智能与化石燃料之间的关系。
Oil and gas companies have been using various types of AI for decades to help find and develop underground resources more efficiently. That increases global dependence on fossil fuels and makes it harder for the world to reach its climate targets, the Alpines argue. 阿尔派恩夫妇认为，石油和天然气公司几十年来一直在使用各种类型的人工智能，以更高效地寻找和开发地下资源。这增加了全球对化石燃料的依赖，并使世界更难实现其气候目标。
While tech companies measure their own emissions and that of their supply chain, they don’t tend to measure just how much their tools help to increase fossil fuel production. The Alpines refer to AI-supported greenhouse gas pollution as “enabled emissions.” 虽然科技公司会衡量自身及其供应链的排放量，但它们往往不会衡量其工具在多大程度上助推了化石燃料的生产。阿尔派恩夫妇将这种由人工智能支持的温室气体污染称为“赋能排放”（enabled emissions）。
“Sustainability measures [within tech companies] are very much focused on operational emissions” rather than enabled emissions, Holly says. The new paper argues that while accounting for that pollution is important, it ignores emissions that do much more damage to the climate. 霍莉说：“（科技公司内部的）可持续发展措施非常关注运营排放，而不是赋能排放。”这篇新论文认为，虽然核算这些污染很重要，但它忽略了那些对气候造成更大破坏的排放。
To get an idea of how AI can affect fossil fuel companies’ emissions, the Alpines used a complex economic model that allows researchers to introduce various factors to test out how they might play out over the broader economy. Using reports from oil and gas companies about demonstrated gains from AI tools, the Alpines modeled AI as a productivity enhancer across various sectors of the fossil fuel industry, from extraction to refining to electricity generation. They also estimated how that in turn can increase global emissions. 为了了解人工智能如何影响化石燃料公司的排放，阿尔派恩夫妇使用了一个复杂的经济模型，该模型允许研究人员引入各种因素，以测试它们在更广泛的经济中可能产生的影响。利用石油和天然气公司关于人工智能工具所带来收益的报告，阿尔派恩夫妇将人工智能建模为化石燃料行业各个部门（从开采到炼油再到发电）的生产力增强器。他们还估算了这反过来会如何增加全球排放量。
The modeling found that AI as a productivity enhancer for the fossil fuel industry could help increase global energy-related emissions between 1.2 to 4.8 percent. That’s significantly higher than multiple projections around emissions from data center energy use. 模型发现，作为化石燃料行业的生产力增强器，人工智能可能导致全球能源相关排放量增加1.2%至4.8%。这远高于关于数据中心能源使用排放的多项预测。
“The scale of this was staggering,” says Will. “其规模令人震惊，”威尔说。
Fossil fuel companies are increasingly providing power for data centers. Chevron and Microsoft recently confirmed that the oil giant would be building a large behind-the-meter gas plant in Texas to power data centers for the tech company. 化石燃料公司正越来越多地为数据中心提供电力。雪佛龙（Chevron）和微软最近证实，这家石油巨头将在德克萨斯州建造一座大型用户侧（behind-the-meter）天然气发电厂，为该科技公司的数据中心供电。
In a call with analysts in June, Jeff Gustavson, the president of Chevron’s New Energies division, hinted that the deal would benefit Chevron’s AI capacities as well. Chevron, according to Gustavson, will “use some of that compute” generated by the power from the power plant serving Microsoft “to actually power AI inside of our company.” 在6月份与分析师的电话会议中，雪佛龙新能源部门总裁杰夫·古斯塔夫森（Jeff Gustavson）暗示，这笔交易也将使雪佛龙的人工智能能力受益。据古斯塔夫森称，雪佛龙将“利用为微软供电的发电厂所产生的部分计算能力，来实际驱动我们公司内部的人工智能。”
(“Chevron and Microsoft have worked together for years to accelerate digital transformation, leveraging the capabilities of a trusted cloud to generate insights, scale innovation, and unlock value across the organization,” Chevron spokesperson Paula Beasley told WIRED in an email, in response to several questions about the specific relationship between the oil giant and the tech company.) （雪佛龙发言人宝拉·比斯利（Paula Beasley）在回复《连线》（WIRED）关于这家石油巨头与科技公司之间具体关系的几个问题时，通过电子邮件表示：“雪佛龙和微软多年来一直合作加速数字化转型，利用可信云的能力来生成洞察、扩展创新并释放整个组织的价值。”）
“It’s perfectly illustrative of the relationship between AI and fossil fuels,” Will says of the Chevron deal with Microsoft. “这完美地说明了人工智能与化石燃料之间的关系，”威尔在谈到雪佛龙与微软的交易时说。
“There are many AI boosters who blithely claim that AI will solve the climate problem so we should go ahead and develop it as quickly as possible,” Jon Koomey, an energy researcher, tells WIRED in an email. “Such hand-waving arguments ignore the effects that AI will have on ALL industries, not just renewable energy and efficiency.” 能源研究员乔恩·库米（Jon Koomey）在给《连线》的电子邮件中表示：“有许多人工智能支持者轻率地声称，人工智能将解决气候问题，因此我们应该尽快开发它。这种随意的论点忽略了人工智能将对所有行业产生的影响，而不仅仅是可再生能源和效率。”
Koomey, who was not involved in the new analysis, says that the conclusions the researchers draw seem solid. 未参与这项新分析的库米表示，研究人员得出的结论似乎是可靠的。
“Machine learning can make data center cooling 30-40 percent more efficient, but [could] also make fossil fuel extraction much cheaper and faster,” he says. “How that nets out nobody yet knows for sure, but this new research is a credible attempt to answer that question using a macroeconomic model.” “机器学习可以使数据中心冷却效率提高30%到40%，但也可能使化石燃料的开采变得更便宜、更快捷，”他说。“最终结果如何，目前还没有人能确定，但这项新研究是使用宏观经济模型来回答这一问题的可靠尝试。”