Anthropic could be worth $2 trillion when it goes public
Anthropic could be worth $2 trillion when it goes public
Anthropic 上市时估值可能达到 2 万亿美元
Anthropic investors expect the AI startup to float at a valuation of $2 trillion or more in October, a dizzying figure that would eclipse SpaceX and make the AI lab’s debut the largest-ever initial public offering. Anthropic 的投资者预计，这家人工智能初创公司将于 10 月以 2 万亿美元或更高的估值上市。这一令人咋舌的数字将超越 SpaceX，使这家 AI 实验室的首次公开募股（IPO）成为史上规模最大的一次。
Half a dozen of the company’s backers told the FT that Anthropic’s rapidly rising revenue would enable it to more than double its current valuation in a planned autumn float. A listing at that level could unlock billions of dollars in gains for the five-year-old company’s early investors but would also test public markets that are growing more nervous about the AI boom. 该公司的六位支持者告诉《金融时报》，Anthropic 快速增长的营收将使其在计划的秋季上市中，估值较当前水平翻一番以上。以这一水平上市可能会为这家成立五年的公司的早期投资者带来数十亿美元的收益，但也考验着对 AI 热潮日益感到不安的公开市场。
Anthropic’s backers say booming demand for the lab’s advanced AI models and tools justifies their lofty expectations. Investors expect the Claude maker’s annualized revenue to be between $100 billion and $120 billion by the end of 2026—using the startup’s preferred measure, which infers full-year sales from recent performance—up by more than 10 times over the course of 2026. Anthropic 的支持者表示，市场对该实验室先进 AI 模型和工具的旺盛需求证明了他们的高期望是合理的。投资者预计，到 2026 年底，这家 Claude 开发商的年化营收将达到 1000 亿至 1200 亿美元（采用该初创公司偏好的衡量标准，即根据近期表现推算全年销售额），较 2026 年初增长超过 10 倍。
“If Anthropic is growing 800 percent a year, you’d think at the incredibly low end they would trade at 30 times [revenue],” said one investor in the group. “That would make them a $3 trillion company.” “如果 Anthropic 以每年 800% 的速度增长，你可能会认为即使在极度保守的情况下，其市销率（P/S）也会达到 30 倍，”该投资群体中的一位投资者表示。“那将使它成为一家 3 万亿美元的公司。”
Anthropic lacks a publicly listed US peer that would provide a benchmark for its valuation. But companies that are seen as AI beneficiaries, such as data intelligence group Palantir and cloud company Nebius, have traded this year at roughly 55 times revenue. Anthropic 缺乏可作为估值基准的美国上市同行。但被视为 AI 受益者的公司，如数据智能集团 Palantir 和云服务公司 Nebius，今年的市销率约为 55 倍。
Several investors said senior Anthropic executives had yet to fix the valuation target for the IPO, even in private conversations. But investors have built their own financial models. Their bullish projections come despite mounting challenges, including rising competition from Chinese rivals, pressure for AI regulation, and a simmering feud with the US government. 几位投资者表示，Anthropic 的高管尚未确定 IPO 的估值目标，即使在私下交谈中也是如此。但投资者已经建立了自己的财务模型。尽管面临越来越多的挑战，包括来自中国竞争对手的日益激烈的竞争、AI 监管压力以及与美国政府之间不断发酵的矛盾，他们依然给出了看涨的预测。
Those concerns, particularly the Commerce Department’s temporary ban on Anthropic’s best models, contributed to overall revenue growth slowing in the month of June, according to two investors with knowledge of the matter. Even so, they said the company had rebounded and continued to grow at an extraordinary rate even by Silicon Valley standards. 据两位知情投资者透露，这些担忧，尤其是美国商务部对 Anthropic 最优模型的临时禁令，导致 6 月份的整体营收增长放缓。即便如此，他们表示该公司已经反弹，并继续保持着即便以硅谷标准衡量也堪称非凡的增长速度。
Anthropic declined to comment. The startup led by Dario Amodei filed paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June, putting the company in a quiet period that limits public announcements about its financial performance. Anthropic 拒绝置评。由 Dario Amodei 领导的这家初创公司于 6 月向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了文件，使公司进入静默期，限制了有关其财务业绩的公开声明。
Anthropic has gained ground on rivals OpenAI and Google this year, releasing models that have outperformed competitors while focusing on sales to business customers. The group announced in May that its annualized revenue had surpassed $47 billion. 今年，Anthropic 在与竞争对手 OpenAI 和 Google 的竞争中取得了进展，发布了优于竞争对手的模型，同时专注于向企业客户销售。该公司在 5 月份宣布，其年化营收已超过 470 亿美元。
Venture capitalists, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors have poured just under $100 billion into the company in 2026. Anthropic’s valuation leapfrogged OpenAI’s for the first time in May, reaching $965 billion, including the new investment. 风险投资家、主权财富基金和其他机构投资者在 2026 年向该公司投入了近 1000 亿美元。Anthropic 的估值在 5 月份首次超过 OpenAI，达到 9650 亿美元（包含新一轮投资）。
But the group also faces considerable uncertainty. It has repeatedly clashed with the Trump administration and remains in active litigation against the US Department of Defense, which labeled Anthropic a supply-chain risk earlier this year. 但该公司也面临相当大的不确定性。它与特朗普政府多次发生冲突，并仍在与美国国防部进行诉讼，后者在今年早些时候将 Anthropic 列为供应链风险。
Anthropic has since been forced to briefly pull its leading models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, after being hit with export controls by the Commerce Department in June. The episode spooked some customers who rely on Anthropic models. 自 6 月份受到美国商务部的出口管制后，Anthropic 被迫短暂下架了其领先模型 Fable 5 和 Mythos 5。这一事件惊吓到了一些依赖 Anthropic 模型的客户。
Customers are also increasingly sensitive to the price of accessing the best models. Faced with spiraling costs, they have, in some cases, reversed directives for employees to maximize their AI use and opted for less powerful, cheaper models. 客户对访问顶级模型的价格也越来越敏感。面对不断飙升的成本，在某些情况下，他们撤回了要求员工最大化使用 AI 的指令，转而选择功能较弱、价格更便宜的模型。
Anthropic’s market-leading model costs more than two and a half times as much to use as OpenAI’s flagship, while Chinese open-weight alternatives, which have also improved dramatically this year, are a fraction of the cost, according to Artificial Analysis, which analyzes AI models. 根据分析 AI 模型的 Artificial Analysis 的数据，Anthropic 市场领先的模型使用成本是 OpenAI 旗舰模型的两倍多，而今年同样取得巨大进步的中国开源权重替代方案，其成本仅为前者的几分之一。
Anthropic increased its market share among US businesses last month, according to data from payments group Ramp. But analysts at the company found that businesses were “hitting their limit on AI spend” and turning to cheaper alternatives. 根据支付集团 Ramp 的数据，Anthropic 上个月在美国企业中的市场份额有所增加。但该公司分析师发现，企业正在“触及 AI 支出的上限”，并转向更便宜的替代方案。
“It’s easy to come up with challenges,” said an Anthropic investor who has also backed AI groups including OpenAI and SpaceX, which went public at a $1.77 trillion valuation in June. “But the company continues to be in first position in performance, positioning, and what people want exposure to.” “找出挑战很容易，”一位同时投资了 OpenAI 和 SpaceX（6 月以 1.77 万亿美元估值上市）等 AI 集团的 Anthropic 投资者表示。“但该公司在性能、市场定位以及人们想要投资的领域方面，依然处于领先地位。”