What’s behind this summer’s heat, and why 2027 could be worse
What’s behind this summer’s heat, and why 2027 could be worse
今夏高温背后的原因，以及为何 2027 年的情况可能会更糟
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This summer has been a scorcher for much of the Northern Hemisphere. June and July marked the hottest two-month stretch in Europe since record-keeping began. The contiguous US endured its hottest month on record in July. South Korea saw its highest-ever recorded temperature. The heat isn’t over yet, but some scientists are already looking ahead to 2027. Experts say the latest El Niño event is going to affect next year’s temperatures more than this year’s. So as the summer (slowly) starts to wane and temperatures (hopefully) start to come down, why has it been so hot this summer? What’s coming next year, and how should we prepare for it?
执行摘要 今年夏天，北半球大部分地区都经历了酷热天气。6 月和 7 月是欧洲自开始有记录以来最热的两个月。美国本土经历了有记录以来最热的 7 月。韩国也出现了有记录以来的最高气温。高温尚未结束，但一些科学家已经开始展望 2027 年。专家表示，最新的厄尔尼诺现象对明年气温的影响将超过今年。因此，随着夏天（缓慢地）开始消退，气温（希望）开始下降，为什么今年夏天会如此炎热？明年会发生什么，我们又该如何准备？
As we burn fossil fuels and fill up the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, temperatures all over the globe are on the rise—climate change makes heat waves more likely and more intense. But different regions see different warming rates, and Europe takes the prize for the world’s fastest-warming continent. (It’s second only to the Arctic in terms of regional warming.) So it’s not terribly surprising that Europe has seen a particularly brutal summer, battered with heat wave after heat wave. One study looked at the continent’s May heat wave and found that climate change played a major role: A similar heat wave in 1976 would have been about 3.5 °C (6.3 °F) cooler than it was under today’s conditions.
随着我们燃烧化石燃料并向大气中排放温室气体，全球气温正在上升——气候变化使得热浪发生的可能性更高、强度更大。但不同地区的变暖速度各不相同，欧洲是世界上变暖速度最快的大洲（在区域变暖方面仅次于北极）。因此，欧洲经历了一个特别残酷的夏天，遭受了一波又一波的热浪袭击，这并不令人感到意外。一项研究调查了该大陆 5 月份的热浪，发现气候变化在其中发挥了重要作用：在 1976 年，类似的热浪会比在当今条件下低约 3.5°C（6.3°F）。
The US hasn’t been excused from the heat either. July’s record for the contiguous US (which excludes Alaska and Hawaii) officially ends one held by July 1936 for nearly a century. It’s concerning that we’re breaking records set during the Dust Bowl, an environmental disaster across much of the country. But looking ahead to next year, El Niño could have even more in store.
美国也未能幸免于高温。美国本土（不包括阿拉斯加和夏威夷）7 月份的纪录正式打破了 1936 年 7 月保持了近一个世纪的纪录。令人担忧的是，我们正在打破“尘暴”时期（当时美国大部分地区遭遇了环境灾难）所创下的纪录。但展望明年，厄尔尼诺现象可能会带来更多挑战。
A quick crash course here: There’s a natural variation in patterns across the oceans and atmosphere called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Basically, over the course of several years, feedback systems between the ocean and wind patterns shift one way and then another. (These two states are the El Niño and La Niña events.) The Pacific Ocean gets a lot of sunlight, warming up the water’s surface. In normal conditions the trade winds, caused by Earth’s rotation, carry that warm water west, forcing colder water deep in the ocean up toward the surface in the east. In turn, warm air rises, flows east, and sinks again. During an El Niño, the trade winds weaken and heat stored in the central Pacific builds up, warming up the air above it and creating a pocket of air that disrupts movement in the atmosphere and oceans, altering rainfall and weather across the globe.
这里做一个快速科普：海洋和大气中存在一种被称为“厄尔尼诺-南方涛动”（ENSO）的自然模式变化。简单来说，在几年时间里，海洋和风模式之间的反馈系统会发生交替变化（这两种状态分别是厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件）。太平洋接收大量阳光，使海水表面变暖。在正常情况下，由地球自转引起的信风会将温暖的海水带向西方，迫使深海中较冷的海水上升到东部表面。反过来，暖空气上升、向东流动并再次下沉。在厄尔尼诺现象期间，信风减弱，储存在中太平洋的热量积聚，加热了上方的空气，形成了一个扰动大气和海洋运动的气团，从而改变了全球的降雨和天气。
We’ve already entered an El Niño phase, defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as a period when we see the temperature in a specific part of the Pacific Ocean get 0.5 °C hotter than usual, plus associated changes in the atmosphere. And this could be a big deal for global temperatures. El Niño doesn’t actually add energy into the climate system or warm up the entire globe on a long-term scale. It’s essentially just taking heat that’s been stored in the oceans and releasing it into the atmosphere. But climate change has pushed a lot of heat into storage in the atmosphere and oceans—so combining the effects of this year-to-year variation with that long-term trend could have brutal results.
我们已经进入了厄尔尼诺阶段，美国国家海洋和大气管理局将其定义为太平洋特定区域的温度比平时高出 0.5°C，并伴随大气相关变化的时期。这对全球气温来说可能是一个重大事件。厄尔尼诺现象实际上并不会向气候系统增加能量，也不会从长期尺度上使全球变暖。它本质上只是将储存在海洋中的热量释放到大气中。但气候变化已经将大量热量推入大气和海洋中储存——因此，将这种年度变化的影响与长期趋势相结合，可能会产生残酷的结果。
This El Niño is expected to be an especially notable one. Some forecasts predict that the event could peak at over 3.5 °C above the average, potentially making it the strongest on record. It also came on quite quickly, representing “one of the fastest onsets in the observational record,” writes climate scientist Zeke Hausfather in an analysis for Carbon Brief. And while this El Niño is already starting to have an effect on temperatures, it’s still ramping up. El Niño’s effect on global temperatures tends to lag the development of the ocean pattern by several months, and the effects will likely be more significant next year.
这次厄尔尼诺现象预计将特别引人注目。一些预测显示，该事件的峰值可能比平均水平高出 3.5°C 以上，这可能使其成为有记录以来最强的一次。气候科学家 Zeke Hausfather 在为 Carbon Brief 撰写的分析中写道，它的到来也非常迅速，是“观测记录中发生最快的事件之一”。虽然这次厄尔尼诺现象已经开始对气温产生影响，但它仍在加剧。厄尔尼诺对全球气温的影响往往比海洋模式的发展滞后几个月，其影响在明年可能会更加显著。
In some recent El Niño periods, record-breaking temperatures came during the second calendar year of the event, Hausfather points out in his analysis. The most recent El Niño developed in 2023 and ran into 2024, and 2024 is the reigning hottest year on record. There’s some uncertainty in trying to predict how the rest of this El Niño will play out, but so far, it is set to be a doozy. Given how brutal these summer heat waves have been, there’s a pretty high likelihood that much of the world could see even higher temperatures next year.
Hausfather 在分析中指出，在最近的一些厄尔尼诺时期，破纪录的高温出现在该事件的第二个日历年。最近的一次厄尔尼诺现象始于 2023 年并持续到 2024 年，而 2024 年是目前有记录以来最热的一年。预测这次厄尔尼诺现象的后续发展存在一定的不确定性，但到目前为止，它注定会非常严重。考虑到今年夏天的热浪是多么残酷，世界大部分地区明年出现更高气温的可能性非常大。
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video statement in June. It’s time to start preparing for it, and individuals can take some actions in the near term: If you’ve been putting it off, I’d buy that air conditioner, install solar and a backup battery, or upgrade the insulation in your home. In the longer term, though, temperatures will keep climbing because we’re still burning fossil fuels and driving climate change. As Guterres said in his statement, “The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis: ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.”
“厄尔尼诺现象将为正在变暖的世界火上浇油，”联合国秘书长古特雷斯在 6 月的一份视频声明中表示。现在是开始为此做准备的时候了，个人可以在短期内采取一些行动：如果你一直拖延，我建议你购买空调、安装太阳能和备用电池，或者升级家里的隔热设施。然而，从长远来看，气温将继续攀升，因为我们仍在燃烧化石燃料并推动气候变化。正如古特雷斯在声明中所说：“唯一有效的应对措施是采取与危机相匹配的气候行动：结束对化石燃料的依赖，加速向可再生能源转型，保护最脆弱的群体，并为所有人提供预警系统。”