Hyperscalers might regret embracing natural gas if new forecast proves correct

如果新的预测准确，超大规模云服务商可能会为拥抱天然气而感到后悔

After years of snapping up wind and solar developments, hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are betting that natural gas will power the data centers behind their lofty AI ambitions. But a new research report suggests they may regret their newfound affinity for the fossil fuel. 在多年来大举收购风能和太阳能项目后，亚马逊、谷歌、Meta 和微软等超大规模云服务商（Hyperscalers）正押注天然气，以驱动其宏伟 AI 愿景背后的数据中心。但一份新的研究报告指出，他们可能会为这种对化石燃料的新偏好感到后悔。

Natural gas prices could triple in some parts of the U.S. in the coming years as hyperscaler demand collides with declining supply growth and rising exports of liquefied natural gas, according to Noreva, an energy research firm. Hyperscalers might not be prepared for future price shocks. “I think everyone in the energy markets has been lulled into a sense that gas prices can’t go up,” Peter Gardett, CEO of Noreva, told TechCrunch. “You just need simple arithmetic to get to a much tighter gas market than you were in just a few years ago.” 能源研究公司 Noreva 表示，随着超大规模云服务商的需求与供应增长放缓及液化天然气出口增加发生碰撞，未来几年美国部分地区的天然气价格可能会翻三倍。这些云服务商可能并未为未来的价格冲击做好准备。“我认为能源市场的每个人都被一种‘天然气价格不会上涨’的错觉所麻痹，”Noreva 首席执行官 Peter Gardett 对 TechCrunch 表示，“你只需要简单的算术就能发现，现在的天然气市场比几年前要紧张得多。”

Hyperscalers’ big bets

云服务商的豪赌

Cheap gas has pushed hyperscalers to lock up part of the market. In March, Meta said it would build a massive 7.5-gigawatt natural gas power plant in Louisiana to power its Hyperion data center. A few days later, Microsoft and Google each said they’d build their own gigawatt-scale gas power plants, both in Texas. And not to be left out, Amazon plans to build a 7.6-gigawatt gas power plant in Texas. 廉价的天然气促使云服务商锁定了部分市场份额。今年 3 月，Meta 宣布将在路易斯安那州建设一座 7.5 吉瓦的巨型天然气发电厂，为其 Hyperion 数据中心供电。几天后，微软和谷歌也分别宣布将在德克萨斯州建设各自的吉瓦级天然气发电厂。亚马逊也不甘落后，计划在德克萨斯州建设一座 7.6 吉瓦的天然气发电厂。

For companies that historically have shied away from large capital expenditures, the data center building boom suddenly has them investing heavily in the physical world while also pushing them deeper into energy markets, which are even less familiar territory. Gardett said at least one investor he spoke with was “surprised” by how much natural gas price risk hyperscalers are willing to take on. “They’re doing things that are not normal for an off-taker to do,” he said. 对于那些历史上一直回避大规模资本支出的公司来说，数据中心建设热潮突然让他们在物理世界中投入巨资，同时也迫使他们更深入地进入能源市场——这对于他们来说是更加陌生的领域。Gardett 表示，他交谈过的一位投资者对云服务商愿意承担如此巨大的天然气价格风险感到“惊讶”。他说：“他们正在做的事情对于电力承购商来说是不寻常的。”

Noreva expects natural gas prices to soar above $10 per million BTUs in certain hubs, or delivery points for futures contracts. Today, prices range from about $2 to $4.50 per million BTUs, with the widely traded Henry Hub in Louisiana priced at just under $3. Fuel represents about half the cost of electricity from a large power plant, so a doubling or tripling of natural gas prices could make “bring your own power” AI data centers much more expensive to run. That could drive up token costs, or it could push hyperscalers to connect to the grid, driving electricity prices higher. Noreva 预计，在某些枢纽（即期货合约的交割点），天然气价格将飙升至每百万英热单位（BTU）10 美元以上。目前，价格范围约为每百万英热单位 2 美元至 4.50 美元，交易广泛的路易斯安那州亨利港（Henry Hub）价格略低于 3 美元。燃料约占大型发电厂电力成本的一半，因此天然气价格翻倍或翻三倍可能会使“自带电力”的 AI 数据中心运营成本大幅增加。这可能会推高代币成本，或者迫使云服务商接入电网，从而推高电价。

For the foreseeable future, natural gas prices appear stable — futures contracts aren’t anticipating big changes. “It’s not an unreasonable bet,” Gardett said. But he’s not convinced they’re right. 在可预见的未来，天然气价格似乎保持稳定——期货合约并未预期会有重大变化。“这并不是一个不合理的赌注，”Gardett 说。但他并不认为他们是对的。

Surging demand

需求激增

Natural gas prices have been stable thanks to years of relatively flat demand and the steady addition of new supplies, which has countered waning production at old wells, Gardett said. He expects that energy companies will be able to add more supplies, just not at the rate they did before. Plus, new wells are getting more expensive. “That alone wouldn’t change the economics here. What’s changing the number is that finally we’re connecting the domestic gas market to the global gas market,” he said. “And the second is the AI demand pull.” Gardett 指出，天然气价格之所以保持稳定，得益于多年来相对平稳的需求和新供应的稳定增加，这抵消了老油井产量的下降。他预计能源公司仍能增加供应，只是速度不会像以前那么快。此外，新油井的成本正在上升。“单凭这一点还不足以改变这里的经济状况。真正改变数据的是，我们终于将国内天然气市场与全球天然气市场连接起来了，”他说，“第二个因素是 AI 带来的需求拉动。”

Hyperscalers have been lured to Texas and Louisiana by cheap natural gas prices. In West Texas, in particular, most wells have been focused on oil, and the natural gas that comes out is a byproduct that hasn’t found much of a market. There weren’t a lot of big pipelines to move it out of the region, so producers sold natural gas at a discount to anyone who could use it. That’s changing, though. “They’ve finally built some pipelines out there, and a lot of that is headed towards export markets,” Gardett said. 廉价的天然气价格吸引了云服务商前往德克萨斯州和路易斯安那州。特别是在西德克萨斯州，大多数油井专注于石油开采，产出的天然气只是副产品，且一直没有找到太大的市场。由于缺乏大型管道将天然气运出该地区，生产商只能以折扣价将其卖给任何能使用的人。然而，这种情况正在改变。“他们终于在那里修建了一些管道，其中大部分天然气正流向出口市场，”Gardett 说。

As West Texas becomes more connected to national and international natural gas markets, demand there will influence prices elsewhere and vice versa. Even modest price swings near hyperscalers’ big data centers could be magnified elsewhere. “You will get places where you get a lot of gas next to someplace where there’s none, and so you’ll get those big differentials,” Gardett said. 随着西德克萨斯州与国内和国际天然气市场的联系日益紧密，当地的需求将影响其他地区的价格，反之亦然。即使是云服务商大型数据中心附近的小幅价格波动，也可能在其他地方被放大。Gardett 说：“你会发现有些地方天然气充足，而紧邻的地方却完全没有，因此会出现巨大的价格差异。”

It’s those differentials that will drive prices in some regions above $10 per million BTUs for extended periods of time. Under that scenario, even if hyperscalers can stomach higher prices, their natural gas consumption could add a new dimension to the data center backlash. Already, 80% of consumers are worried about data centers’ impact on their utility bills, mostly related to electricity. That angst could spill over to natural gas bills. 正是这些差异将导致某些地区的天然气价格在较长时期内超过每百万英热单位 10 美元。在这种情况下，即使云服务商能够承受更高的价格，他们的天然气消耗量也可能为数据中心引发的抵制浪潮增加一个新的维度。目前，80% 的消费者已经对数据中心对其公用事业账单的影响感到担忧，这主要与电费有关。这种焦虑可能会蔓延到天然气账单上。

Hyperscalers, in their haste to power their AI data centers, are quickly enmeshing themselves in the fossil fuel world. It’s a space in which they have relatively little experience, but one that could soon materially impact their businesses. “On future Alphabet earning calls, you will hear them talk about the correlation between natural gas pricing and Google results, which is strange, but that’s where we are,” Gardett said. 云服务商在急于为 AI 数据中心供电的过程中，正迅速卷入化石燃料的世界。这是一个他们经验相对较少的领域，但很快就会对他们的业务产生实质性影响。Gardett 说：“在未来的 Alphabet 财报电话会议上，你会听到他们谈论天然气价格与谷歌业绩之间的相关性，这很奇怪，但这就是我们所处的现实。”