Satellite operators are in panic mode due to a worsening launch crisis
Satellite operators are in panic mode due to a worsening launch crisis
卫星运营商陷入恐慌：发射危机日益严峻
This should be a golden era of launch. During the last three years, an average of 270 orbital rockets have launched from Earth, a more than threefold increase from only a decade ago. By every metric available, the launch industry is crushing it: Prices have never been more competitive, launches never more frequent, and access to space never more rapid. Paradoxically, though, there is a growing crunch in launch availability.
这本应是航天发射的黄金时代。在过去三年中，全球平均每年发射 270 枚轨道火箭，比十年前增加了两倍多。从各项指标来看，发射行业正处于巅峰：价格竞争从未如此激烈，发射频率从未如此之高，进入太空的速度也从未如此之快。然而矛盾的是，发射运力却出现了日益严重的短缺。
As part of his job as the director of research at Quilty Space, Caleb Henry speaks with satellite operators all the time. And he is hearing a constant and increasingly loud refrain from companies that want to put stuff into space. “What we have is an industry in panic,” Henry said.
作为 Quilty Space 的研究总监，Caleb Henry 的工作之一就是与卫星运营商保持密切沟通。他不断听到那些想要将设备送入太空的公司发出越来越强烈的抱怨。Henry 说：“我们现在面对的是一个陷入恐慌的行业。”
Anecdotes abound. A Canadian satellite company, Telesat, recently received inquiries from other companies asking if they would consider sharing some of the 11 Falcon 9 launches Telesat has booked for its new constellation. (Sorry, no, is the reply). The Amazon LEO constellation has had to throttle back production of satellites because few of the dozens of launches it booked half a decade ago are ready. And during an earnings call last Monday, officials from AST SpaceMobile said launch availability was now the pacing item for deploying its constellation.
此类轶事比比皆是。加拿大卫星公司 Telesat 最近收到其他公司的询问，想知道他们是否愿意分享 Telesat 为其新卫星星座预订的 11 次猎鹰 9 号（Falcon 9）发射机会。（回答当然是：不行）。亚马逊的低轨（LEO）卫星星座不得不放缓卫星生产速度，因为他们五年前预订的数十次发射中，很少有能按时准备好的。在上周一的财报电话会议上，AST SpaceMobile 的高管表示，发射运力已成为部署其卫星星座的瓶颈。
With a growing number of constellations big and small, there is a huge and growing demand signal. The Commercial Space Federation predicts demand for thousands of satellite launches annually in less than a decade. Analysys Mason forecasted that more than 37,000 satellites will need to be launched between 2023 and 2033. Henry’s own firm, Quilty Space, has charted a change in the discussion from how many launch companies the US market can support to who can execute the fastest to meet surging satellite needs. And if things are bad now, there are reasons to believe they may get even worse over the next two to four years.
随着大大小小的卫星星座数量不断增加，市场需求信号巨大且持续增长。商业航天联合会（Commercial Space Federation）预测，十年内每年的卫星发射需求将达到数千次。Analysys Mason 预测，2023 年至 2033 年间将有超过 37,000 颗卫星需要发射。Henry 所在的 Quilty Space 公司指出，行业讨论的焦点已经从“美国市场能支持多少家发射公司”转变为“谁能以最快速度执行任务以满足激增的卫星需求”。如果现在的情况已经很糟糕，那么有理由相信，未来两到四年内情况可能会进一步恶化。
X marks the spot
SpaceX 成为焦点
Myriad factors are driving this crunch, but the principal concern of late has been SpaceX. The company that is almost exclusively responsible for the dramatic increase in launch availability in the 2020s has signaled that it intends to wind down Falcon 9 operations as quickly as possible in favor of the larger Starship rocket. Some might see that as a good thing due to Starship’s enormous payload capacity. But there are growing concerns that SpaceX will largely focus on its own payloads—Starlink v3 satellites and orbital data centers—because of their potential to drive far greater profits.
导致这种短缺的因素有很多，但最近的主要担忧集中在 SpaceX 身上。这家几乎凭一己之力推动了 2020 年代发射运力大幅增长的公司，已经发出信号，打算尽快缩减猎鹰 9 号的运营，转而支持更大的星舰（Starship）火箭。有些人可能认为这是件好事，因为星舰拥有巨大的载荷能力。但人们越来越担心，SpaceX 将主要专注于其自身的载荷——星链（Starlink）v3 卫星和轨道数据中心——因为这些项目具有带来更高利润的潜力。
The Starship rocket’s PEZ satellite dispenser, optimized for Starlink, is an indication of the company’s priorities. In financial documents, it’s clear that SpaceX views commercial launch as a rounding error compared to revenues from its own satellites in space. A majority of the company’s revenue ($4.3 billion out of $7.8 billion) during the second quarter of 2026 came from Starlink, whereas less than 12 percent was due to space services, of which commercial launch is but a fraction. This disparity is only likely to widen.
星舰火箭为星链优化的 PEZ 卫星分配器，正是该公司优先事项的体现。财务文件显示，与太空卫星业务带来的收入相比，SpaceX 将商业发射视为“四舍五入的误差”。2026 年第二季度，该公司大部分收入（78 亿美元中的 43 亿美元）来自星链，而太空服务收入占比不到 12%，其中商业发射仅占一小部分。这种差距很可能会进一步扩大。
SpaceX has already moved beyond “peak” Falcon 9 operations. The company flew the rocket 165 times last year, and it will probably fly about 20 fewer missions this year. SpaceX is already making ground system changes to reflect these reductions. The company’s president, Gwynne Shotwell, has previously said the operational lifetime of the Falcon 9 may end in 2030 or 2032. However, more recently, commercial satellite customers have been running into difficulties when trying to purchase a launch after 2028. One source said SpaceX has told the US government that it intends to end commercial launches after 2028 but will continue flying the Falcon 9 rocket for a limited number of federally contracted missions after that.
SpaceX 已经过了猎鹰 9 号的“巅峰”运营期。去年该公司发射了 165 次，今年可能会减少约 20 次。SpaceX 已经在进行地面系统调整以适应这些削减。公司总裁 Gwynne Shotwell 此前曾表示，猎鹰 9 号的服役寿命可能会在 2030 年或 2032 年结束。然而，最近商业卫星客户在尝试购买 2028 年之后的发射服务时遇到了困难。有消息称，SpaceX 已告知美国政府，打算在 2028 年后停止商业发射，但之后仍将为有限的联邦合同任务继续使用猎鹰 9 号火箭。
Whether or not these dates stick, it has become clear to commercial satellite operators that they can no longer reliably plan their future around the workhorse Falcon 9 rocket, creating a huge pain point for the commercial space industry in the United States and other Western countries. This is because of an inescapable reality: Without SpaceX, the Western launch market would have been completely screwed over the last half-decade.
无论这些日期是否最终确定，商业卫星运营商都已经清楚，他们不能再指望依靠猎鹰 9 号这一“主力”火箭来规划未来，这给美国及其他西方国家的商业航天业造成了巨大的痛点。原因是一个无法回避的现实：如果没有 SpaceX，过去五年西方发射市场将彻底陷入瘫痪。
The war in Ukraine
乌克兰战争的影响
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This took Russian rockets off the table for Western countries, including European nations. Most immediately impacted was OneWeb, which lost some satellites already in Soyuz launch processing and eventually had to turn to a direct competitor, SpaceX and its Falcon 9 rocket, to complete its constellation.
2022 年 2 月 24 日，俄罗斯对乌克兰发动全面入侵。这使得俄罗斯火箭不再是西方国家（包括欧洲国家）的选择。受影响最直接的是 OneWeb，他们损失了一些已经在联盟号（Soyuz）火箭发射处理流程中的卫星，最终不得不求助于直接竞争对手 SpaceX 及其猎鹰 9 号火箭来完成其卫星星座的部署。
The loss of the Soyuz and Proton rockets for Western commercial purposes came at the same time that two other leading providers were shutting down their older rockets for newer models. In Europe, the transition from the Ariane 5 to Ariane 6 rocket was underway. Across the pond, United Launch Alliance sought to end its dependence on Russian engines for the Atlas V rocket by migrating to the new Vulcan rocket. Both projects had initially targeted completion by 2020, but by the time of the war’s outbreak, neither new vehicle was close to flying for the first time. Effectively, this meant that Arianespace and United Launch Alliance had a dwindling number of older rockets that were already spoken for.
西方商业市场失去联盟号和质子号（Proton）火箭的同时，另外两家领先的供应商也正在淘汰旧型号火箭，转向新型号。在欧洲，从阿丽亚娜 5 号（Ariane 5）向阿丽亚娜 6 号（Ariane 6）的过渡正在进行中。在大西洋彼岸，联合发射联盟（ULA）试图通过转向新型火神（Vulcan）火箭，结束对阿特拉斯 5 号（Atlas V）火箭所用俄罗斯发动机的依赖。这两个项目最初都计划在 2020 年完成，但到战争爆发时，这两种新型运载火箭都远未达到首次飞行阶段。实际上，这意味着阿丽亚娜航天公司（Arianespace）和联合发射联盟手中仅存的少量旧型号火箭早已被预订一空。
The war also offered a chance for two Asian nations with ties to the West, Japan and India, to step up. Both countries, with the H3 rocket in Japan and LVM3 in India, had been seeking to support the commercial satellite industry. But the H3’s debut slipped to 2023, and…
这场战争也为与西方关系密切的两个亚洲国家——日本和印度——提供了机会。两国分别凭借日本的 H3 火箭和印度的 LVM3 火箭，一直寻求支持商业卫星行业。但 H3 的首飞推迟到了 2023 年，并且……