What Is El Niño? Here’s What It Means for Weather, Water, and Global Economy
What Is El Niño? Here’s What It Means for Weather, Water, and Global Economy
什么是厄尔尼诺现象？它对天气、水资源和全球经济意味着什么
El Niño looks to reach an intensity unprecedented in recorded history. Characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, El Niño occurs every few years. Meteorological agencies and researchers around the world are on high alert because when the heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere, it triggers a chain reaction that affects rainfall, temperatures, and even hurricane activity around the world.
厄尔尼诺现象（El Niño）的强度似乎将达到有记录以来的空前水平。厄尔尼诺现象每隔几年就会发生一次，其特征是赤道太平洋海面温度高于正常水平。世界各地的气象机构和研究人员都处于高度戒备状态，因为当储存在海洋中的热量释放到大气中时，会引发连锁反应，进而影响全球的降雨量、气温，甚至是飓风活动。
This year’s El Niño has gained strength at an exceptional speed, and it will wreak havoc on everything from fisheries to ski seasons. Not all impacts are bad—the parched Southwest, for example, is likely to see more winter precipitation—but anticipating them is the key to being prepared. What exactly is happening now, and what might happen in the coming months? Read on to understand what El Niño is, why this one might be a super El Niño, and where its impacts will be most acutely felt.
今年的厄尔尼诺现象增强速度极快，将对从渔业到滑雪季的各个领域造成严重破坏。并非所有的影响都是负面的——例如，干旱的美国西南部可能会迎来更多的冬季降水——但提前预判是做好准备的关键。现在究竟发生了什么？未来几个月可能会发生什么？请继续阅读，了解什么是厄尔尼诺现象，为什么这次可能是“超级厄尔尼诺”，以及哪些地区受到的影响最为剧烈。
What Is El Niño?
什么是厄尔尼诺现象？
Declaring El Niño requires meeting a certain threshold of oceanic heat in the Pacific. Specifically, a region known as NINO3.4. It’s an area that sits between NINO3 and NINO 4 if you want to geek out even more. In plain language, it’s a region in the eastern-central tropical Pacific.
宣布厄尔尼诺现象的发生，需要太平洋的海洋热量达到一定的阈值。具体来说，是指一个被称为 NINO3.4 的区域。如果你想深入研究，它位于 NINO3 和 NINO4 区域之间。通俗地说，它位于热带太平洋的中东部。
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses the three-month average sea surface temperature of the region to determine if an El Niño is in effect. If the ocean is 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal for three overlapping three-month periods, it’s officially an El Niño.
美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）使用该区域三个月的平均海面温度来确定厄尔尼诺现象是否正在发生。如果海洋温度在三个重叠的三个月周期内比正常水平高出 0.5 摄氏度（0.9 华氏度），则正式确认为厄尔尼诺现象。
Other weather agencies do things a little differently. Japan’s Meteorological Agency monitors a slightly different region using its own criteria, while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s threshold has an atmospheric component as well.
其他气象机构的做法略有不同。日本气象厅使用自己的标准监测略有不同的区域，而澳大利亚气象局的阈值还包含大气成分。
In addition to warmer oceans, the trade winds that blow from east to west also weaken. That allows seawater to pile up on the eastern side of the Pacific. In 1997 and 2015—when El Niño events were among the strongest on record—sea levels rose more than 18 centimeters (7 inches) above average.
除了海洋变暖外，从东向西吹的信风也会减弱。这使得海水在太平洋东侧堆积。在 1997 年和 2015 年——当时厄尔尼诺事件是有记录以来最强烈的几次之一——海平面比平均水平上升了超过 18 厘米（7 英寸）。
All this increases the odds of shifts in weather around the world. There’s the aforementioned increase in rainfall in the Southwest as well as a corresponding decrease in Pacific Northwest precipitation. Atlantic hurricane season tends to be milder as well, with fewer storms.
所有这些都增加了全球天气发生变化的可能性。除了前面提到的西南部降雨量增加外，太平洋西北地区的降水量也会相应减少。大西洋飓风季节往往也会变得温和，风暴数量减少。
Indonesia sees an increased risk of drought as do parts of southern Africa. El Niño also tends to raise the odds winter warmth in Japan and parts of Australia and Brazil. It’s important to note that El Niño tilts the odds of certain weather because it’s not the only phenomenon weighing on what happens in a given day or given season.
印度尼西亚和非洲南部部分地区面临的干旱风险增加。厄尔尼诺现象也往往会增加日本以及澳大利亚和巴西部分地区冬季变暖的几率。需要注意的是，厄尔尼诺现象只是改变了特定天气发生的概率，因为它并不是影响某一天或某一季节天气的唯一现象。
What Is a Super El Niño?
什么是“超级厄尔尼诺”？
Super El Niño isn’t an official term any meteorological agency uses, but scientists generally use it define any event where temperatures by a least 2 degrees Celsius above average. While there’s no standardized definition, four particular El Niños are ones that check the super box: 1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16, and 2023–24.
“超级厄尔尼诺”并不是任何气象机构使用的官方术语，但科学家通常用它来定义温度比平均水平至少高出 2 摄氏度的事件。虽然没有标准化的定义，但有四次特定的厄尔尼诺事件符合“超级”标准：1982–83 年、1997–98 年、2015–16 年和 2023–24 年。
When the Super El Niño occurred in 1982–83, the Colorado River basin in the US was hit by record-breaking heavy snowfall. Combined with high spring temperatures and rainfall, the river’s flow exceeded 1.5 times the average. Reservoirs upstream filled to capacity one after another, forcing emergency releases, and Lake Mead also reached near-capacity, causing water to overflow from the Hoover Dam spillway for the first time in about 40 years. As a result, the basin suffered significant flood damage. In other words, the impacts of El Niño that may be “good” can still lead to bad outcomes.
当 1982–83 年发生超级厄尔尼诺现象时，美国科罗拉多河流域遭遇了破纪录的强降雪。加上春季的高温和降雨，河流流量超过了平均水平的 1.5 倍。上游水库相继蓄满，被迫进行紧急泄洪，米德湖（Lake Mead）也接近满水位，导致胡佛大坝溢洪道约 40 年来首次溢水。结果，该流域遭受了严重的洪水灾害。换句话说，厄尔尼诺现象中可能被视为“有利”的影响，也可能导致糟糕的后果。
In 1997–98, Indonesia was hit by the worst drought in the past half-century, while the 2023-24 super El Niño contributed to the worst drought in over 100 years for southern Africa. Conditions were so extreme that approximately 61 million people needed humanitarian aid.
1997–98 年，印度尼西亚遭遇了半个世纪以来最严重的干旱，而 2023–24 年的超级厄尔尼诺现象则导致非洲南部出现了 100 多年来最严重的干旱。情况极其严峻，约有 6100 万人需要人道主义援助。
How Is This El Niño Shaping Up?
这次厄尔尼诺现象的发展情况如何？
There is a greater than 90 percent probability of this El Niño becoming “very strong” this fall and winter, according to NOAA. Modeling by Berkeley Earth shows that median temperatures for the NINO3.4 region could reach 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal—even after accounting for the effects of long-term global warming. This would exceed the all-time high recorded during the 2015–16 El Niño by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. Given that the difference between the strongest and fifth-strongest El Niño events over the past 150 years was only about 0.5 degrees Celsius, this represents an exceptional level of warming.
根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的数据，这次厄尔尼诺现象在今年秋冬季节变得“非常强烈”的可能性超过 90%。伯克利地球（Berkeley Earth）的建模显示，即使考虑到长期全球变暖的影响，NINO3.4 区域的中位温度也可能比正常水平高出 3.6 摄氏度。这将比 2015–16 年厄尔尼诺现象期间记录的历史最高值高出约 0.8 摄氏度。考虑到过去 150 年中最强和第五强厄尔尼诺事件之间的温差仅为 0.5 摄氏度左右，这代表了异常的变暖水平。
This El Niño event is also developing at a faster pace than usual. While the 2015 El Niño developed from a situation where sea surface temperatures were already rising, this year’s began in a state closer to a La Niña, with below average sea surface temperatures. Nevertheless, it is said to be developing even more rapidly than the 1997–98 super El Niño.
这次厄尔尼诺事件的发展速度也比往常更快。2015 年的厄尔尼诺现象是在海面温度已经上升的情况下发展起来的，而今年的厄尔尼诺现象开始时更接近拉尼娜状态，海面温度低于平均水平。尽管如此，据称其发展速度甚至超过了 1997–98 年的超级厄尔尼诺现象。
The economic impact of El Niño cannot be overlooked either. An analysis found that the 1997–98 El Niño resulted in a cumulative loss of approximately $5.7 trillion over the following five years.
厄尔尼诺现象的经济影响也不容忽视。一项分析发现，1997–98 年的厄尔尼诺现象在随后的五年中造成了约 5.7 万亿美元的累计损失。
What About La Niña?
那么拉尼娜现象呢？
The counterpart to El Niño is La Niña, which is characterized by cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific. It also occurs every few years, and the effects are generally the opposite of those of El Niño. That includes higher odds of more rain in Indonesia, a more active Atlantic hurricane season, and drier conditions in the Southwest, among others. But with El Niño likely in the driver’s seat until at least spring, those impacts aren’t the ones to watch out for.
厄尔尼诺的对应现象是拉尼娜（La Niña），其特征是太平洋海面温度低于正常水平。它也每隔几年发生一次，其影响通常与厄尔尼诺相反。这包括印度尼西亚降雨量增加、大西洋飓风季节更加活跃以及西南部气候更加干燥等。但由于厄尔尼诺现象至少要到春季才会占据主导地位，目前还无需担心这些影响。
This story originally appeared in WIRED Japan and has been translated from Japanese. 本文最初发表于《连线》日本版，由日语翻译而来。