Position: AI Lock-In Is in Progress, and We Must Be Prepared

立场：AI 锁定效应正在发生，我们必须做好准备

Abstract: AI safety research has mainly focused on two areas: technical alignment (ensuring AI systems produce human-aligned outputs) and the regulation of generative AI’s societal impacts (including unemployment risk and labor market disruption). However, an equally important dimension remains underexplored: the risk inherent in dependence on AI systems themselves.

摘要： AI 安全研究目前主要集中在两个领域：技术对齐（确保 AI 系统产生符合人类意图的输出）以及对生成式 AI 社会影响的监管（包括失业风险和劳动力市场中断）。然而，一个同样重要的维度尚未得到充分探讨：即对 AI 系统本身产生依赖所固有的风险。

In this position paper, we argue that AI safety research should address AI Lock-In, the phenomenon whereby excessive reliance on AI systems leads to human deskilling, diminishes human capacity for independent functioning, and creates systemic vulnerabilities when AI systems become unavailable or compromised.

在这篇立场论文中，我们认为 AI 安全研究应关注“AI 锁定效应”（AI Lock-In）。这一现象是指对 AI 系统的过度依赖导致人类技能退化，削弱了人类独立运作的能力，并在 AI 系统不可用或受损时产生系统性脆弱性。

We highlight that AI Lock-In is a systemic threat that is already emerging at individual, societal, and national levels, one that could be dramatically amplified by AI service disruptions or geopolitical conflicts. Drawing on detailed scenarios, we investigate how AI Lock-In emerges and escalates across multiple levels, ranging from individual skill atrophy to national-scale infrastructure failures.

我们强调，AI 锁定效应是一种已经在个人、社会和国家层面显现的系统性威胁，这种威胁可能会因 AI 服务中断或地缘政治冲突而急剧放大。通过详细的场景分析，我们探讨了 AI 锁定效应如何从个人技能萎缩到国家级基础设施故障等多个层面产生并升级。

To address this, we provide guidance on how such risks can be mitigated and prepared for at each level. We contend that proactively addressing AI Lock-In before such dependencies become entrenched, or even irreversible, is essential for preserving individual autonomy and national security.

为了应对这一问题，我们提供了关于如何在各个层面减轻此类风险并做好准备的指导。我们主张，在这些依赖关系变得根深蒂固甚至不可逆转之前，主动解决 AI 锁定效应对于维护个人自主权和国家安全至关重要。