The wearable future is stuck in weird, experimental, existential limbo

可穿戴设备的未来正陷入一种怪异、实验性且存在主义的困境

I sat down with Google to discuss its vision for the next generation of wearables. It’s a work in progress. 我与谷歌坐下来探讨了他们对下一代可穿戴设备的愿景。这目前仍是一项正在进行中的工作。

For the past week, I’ve been testing the Google Pixel Watch 5. In many ways, it’s a typical, modern smartwatch. In others, it feels like one part of a wearable future that’s increasingly in flux. Everyone I’ve spoken to in wearable tech has roughly the same goal — soon, your tracker of choice will feature a helpful AI coach, “check engine” alerts that preventively flag hard-to-detect health conditions, and personalized health recommendations based on your lived experiences and needs. 过去一周，我一直在测试谷歌 Pixel Watch 5。在许多方面，它是一款典型的现代智能手表。但在其他方面，它感觉像是日益动荡的可穿戴设备未来的一部分。我在可穿戴技术领域交谈过的每个人都有大致相同的目标——不久之后，你选择的追踪器将配备有用的 AI 教练、“检查引擎”式警报（用于预防性地标记难以察觉的健康状况），以及基于你的生活经历和需求提供的个性化健康建议。

That’s certainly what’s being pitched. But so far, it seems like most companies don’t know how exactly we’re going to get there. 这当然是目前所宣传的愿景。但到目前为止，大多数公司似乎并不清楚我们究竟该如何实现这一目标。

AI coaches? Even the best ones are too chatty, fixate on one random detail you shared during setup, and require a ton of hand-holding. “Check engine” alerts can be useful and have been documented as saving lives. They can also spark health anxiety and the regulatory quagmire can be expensive to navigate. Personalized health holds great promise, but requires so much of your private data while also being subject to AI’s myriad shortcomings. Even now, most people think of wearable devices as fancy step trackers. AI 教练？即使是最好的教练也太爱唠叨，会纠结于你在设置过程中分享的一个随机细节，并且需要大量的引导。 “检查引擎”式警报可能很有用，且已有记录证明其能挽救生命。但它们也可能引发健康焦虑，且应对监管困境的成本可能很高。个性化健康前景广阔，但需要大量的个人隐私数据，同时也受限于 AI 的诸多缺陷。即使在今天，大多数人仍将可穿戴设备视为高级计步器。

“Historically, wearables have been very focused on hardcore health enthusiasts,” Rishi Chandra, Google’s vice president of health and home, tells me at a roundtable of tech reporters in New York ahead of the Made by Google event. Usually, tech companies like to keep mum on future ideas and plans. But recently, Google seems eager to lay out its particular vision. “从历史上看，可穿戴设备一直非常关注硬核健康爱好者，”谷歌健康与家庭副总裁 Rishi Chandra 在 Made by Google 活动前夕于纽约举行的科技记者圆桌会议上告诉我。通常，科技公司喜欢对未来的想法和计划保持沉默。但最近，谷歌似乎急于展示其独特的愿景。

“There’s a huge market of people who are not thinking about their health every day. Today, wearable penetration is about 30 percent — 70 percent of the population has no notion of wearables,” Chandra adds. “有一个巨大的市场，那里的人们并没有每天考虑自己的健康问题。今天，可穿戴设备的渗透率约为 30%——70% 的人口对可穿戴设备毫无概念，”Chandra 补充道。

In other words, wearable tech is still in its early days with a lot of untapped potential. The smartwatch is not the end-all, be-all. The fact that wearables can also capture a vast array of personal data compounds that. That’s one reason why, during last year’s Made by Google event, Chandra and Sandeep Waraich, Google’s senior director of wearables, told me that the future of AI gadgets won’t just be a single device. It’ll be an entire ecosystem of diverse accessories. 换句话说，可穿戴技术仍处于早期阶段，拥有巨大的未开发潜力。智能手表并非终极解决方案。可穿戴设备能够捕获大量个人数据这一事实加剧了这种复杂性。这就是为什么在去年的 Made by Google 活动中，Chandra 和谷歌可穿戴设备高级总监 Sandeep Waraich 告诉我，AI 小工具的未来将不仅仅是单一设备，而是一个由多种配件组成的完整生态系统。

Since that chat, I’ve already seen several signs supporting Google’s multi-wearable ecosystem thesis. Multiple companies have pivoted to AI glasses (or as Google calls it, “intelligent eyewear”). But we’ve also seen other wearable form factors start gaining steam. See: the horde of screenless Whoop dupes and smart rings. In the AI sphere, some wearable makers are eschewing the health tracking aspect altogether. Some smart jewelry startups like Vocci, Taya, and Sandbar envision rings and pendants as a way to record and transcribe your thoughts using AI. 自那次谈话以来，我已经看到了几个支持谷歌“多可穿戴设备生态系统”论点的迹象。多家公司已转向 AI 眼镜（或者谷歌所称的“智能眼镜”）。但我们也看到其他可穿戴设备形态开始流行。例如：大量无屏幕的 Whoop 仿品和智能戒指。在 AI 领域，一些可穿戴设备制造商完全放弃了健康追踪功能。一些智能珠宝初创公司（如 Vocci、Taya 和 Sandbar）设想将戒指和吊坠作为利用 AI 记录和转录你想法的工具。

These are not proven ideas. That there are so many different approaches is a pretty big indication that the entire industry is in the process of throwing wearable spaghetti at a wall, desperately hoping that something will stick and be the next smartphone. It’s enough to make a senior wearable reviewer excited — because yay! Weird experimental products — and also mad — because no! Weird experimental products that don’t work as advertised! Still, there’s a nugget of truth in this new search for new wearable form factors and use cases. 这些想法尚未得到验证。如此多的不同尝试是一个非常明显的信号，表明整个行业正处于“乱枪打鸟”的阶段，拼命希望某种产品能脱颖而出，成为下一个智能手机。这足以让一位资深可穿戴设备评论员感到兴奋——因为太棒了！怪异的实验性产品——同时也感到愤怒——因为不！这些怪异的实验性产品根本无法达到宣传的效果！尽管如此，在寻找新的可穿戴设备形态和用例的过程中，确实蕴含着一丝真理。

“Wearables are a great conduit for presence. And it goes both ways. As AI reaches you in a respectful way, and as you want to interact with it, these interactions will become more frequent, but also quicker and glanceable,” says Waraich, noting that Google views seven seconds as its current benchmark for any one wrist-based interaction. The question now is figuring out the ideal surface for each specific technological task. For example: What device should you use to check your calendar? Your phone, tablet, or laptop? Or, with the addition of the Proactive Assistance feature on the Pixel Watch 5, should it be your smartwatch? “可穿戴设备是实现‘存在感’的绝佳渠道。而且这种互动是双向的。当 AI 以一种尊重的方式触达你，且你想要与之互动时，这些互动会变得更加频繁，但也会变得更快、更易于一瞥，”Waraich 说道。他指出，谷歌目前将七秒钟视为任何基于手腕的交互的基准。现在的问题是为每个特定的技术任务找出理想的载体。例如：你应该使用什么设备来查看日历？手机、平板电脑还是笔记本电脑？或者，随着 Pixel Watch 5 上“主动辅助”（Proactive Assistance）功能的加入，应该是你的智能手表吗？

According to Chandra and Waraich, Google has had deep internal discussions about the pros and cons of various wearable form factors. Smart rings, for instance, are something that Google consistently gets asked about but won’t be pursuing in the short term. 据 Chandra 和 Waraich 称，谷歌内部已经就各种可穿戴设备形态的优缺点进行了深入讨论。例如，智能戒指是谷歌经常被问及的问题，但短期内不会考虑开发。

“To be clear, we’re not closing the door on [smart rings],” Chandra says. “But our belief right now is that there’s so much headroom on a wrist-worn wearable … I think the Fitbit Air is going to have far bigger expansion opportunities given how simple and easy it is for everyone to use it.” “需要明确的是，我们并没有关闭（智能戒指的）大门，”Chandra 说。“但我们目前的信念是，腕戴式设备还有很大的发展空间……我认为 Fitbit Air 将拥有更大的扩展机会，因为它对每个人来说都非常简单易用。”

Okay, so Google just introduced the minimalist Fitbit Air and for now is passing on smart rings. Perhaps then the next step is an “Ultra” Pixel Watch as Samsung and Apple have done. Not so. When I ask, Waraich explains the current Pixel Watch is where Google sees its premium offerings. Chandra adds that the company is wary of spreading itself too thin. 好吧，谷歌刚刚推出了极简主义的 Fitbit Air，目前暂时放弃了智能戒指。那么下一步可能是像三星和苹果那样推出“Ultra”版 Pixel Watch 吗？并非如此。当我询问时，Waraich 解释说，目前的 Pixel Watch 就是谷歌的高端产品线。Chandra 补充说，公司担心战线拉得太长。