The Super El Niño Won’t Fix the West’s Water Crisis

超级厄尔尼诺现象无法解决西部的水危机

The Colorado River, which provides water for 40 million people across seven states, is at a crisis point. The two largest reservoirs in the US, Lakes Mead and Powell, provide critical supply for states along the lower part of the river; both have hit multiple record low points this month. 科罗拉多河为七个州的 4000 万人提供水源，目前正处于危机点。美国最大的两个水库——米德湖（Lake Mead）和鲍威尔湖（Lake Powell）——为河流下游各州提供了关键供应；本月，这两个水库均多次创下历史最低水位。

Enter El Niño. The weather phenomenon, which is shaping up to be the strongest one of its kind in recorded history, may bring increased rain and snowfall to the southwestern United States this winter and spring. But experts caution that that precipitation might not be enough to stave off the slow-building disaster on the Colorado River. Even a best-case scenario this winter, involving a healthy snowpack in the region helping to temporarily replenish the river, would be no match for the longer-term problems plaguing it. 厄尔尼诺现象登场了。这一气象现象正演变为有记录以来最强的一次，可能会在今年冬春两季为美国西南部带来更多的降雨和降雪。但专家警告称，这些降水可能不足以阻止科罗拉多河正在缓慢形成的灾难。即使是今年冬天出现最好的情况，即该地区拥有充足的积雪并暂时补充了河流，也无法解决困扰该河流的长期问题。

The Colorado River is fed primarily by snowmelt from the four states in the river’s Upper Basin (Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming), which then supplies the Lower Basin states (California, Arizona, and Nevada). Lakes Powell and Mead are crucial reservoirs that bring water to those lower states. 科罗拉多河的水源主要来自上游盆地四个州（科罗拉多州、犹他州、新墨西哥州和怀俄明州）的融雪，随后供应给下游盆地各州（加利福尼亚州、亚利桑那州和内华达州）。鲍威尔湖和米德湖是为这些下游州输送水源的关键水库。

A winter of record-breaking warm temperatures across the West—made much more likely by climate change—and some of the lowest snowpack on record in mountain ranges in multiple states has led to an incredibly dry season for the Colorado. On Thursday, Lake Powell was sitting at 3,519.4 feet, while Lake Mead was at 1,039.6 feet, their lowest levels on record. Both reservoirs will hit what’s known as “deadpool” at certain levels (3,370 feet for Lake Powell, and 895 feet for Lake Mead), meaning that water can no longer flow out of the reservoirs downstream. (Hydropower from dams on both reservoirs will be affected, or go offline entirely, even earlier.) 受气候变化影响，西部地区经历了创纪录的暖冬，多个州的山脉积雪量处于历史最低水平，这导致科罗拉多河经历了一个极其干旱的季节。周四，鲍威尔湖水位为 3519.4 英尺，米德湖水位为 1039.6 英尺，均为历史最低水平。当水位降至特定高度（鲍威尔湖为 3370 英尺，米德湖为 895 英尺）时，两个水库都将达到所谓的“死水位”（deadpool），这意味着水库的水将无法再流向下游。（两个水库大坝的水力发电将更早受到影响，甚至完全停运。）

In a stroke of uniquely terrible timing, the river, whose water has for decades been over-allocated to thirsty industries like agriculture, is also facing a political crisis. A century-old compact dictating water rights from the river runs out at the end of this year, and states have missed several deadlines to figure out who gets what in the future, requiring the federal government to step in. Combined with the dismal water levels at Lakes Powell and Mead, it’s a terrifying situation for experts who have been watching the slow-motion crisis on the river suddenly accelerate. 在极其糟糕的时机下，这条几十年来一直被过度分配给农业等高耗水行业的河流，也正面临政治危机。一份规定该河流用水权、已有百年历史的协议将于今年年底到期，而各州已多次错过确定未来用水分配的最后期限，迫使联邦政府介入。再加上鲍威尔湖和米德湖惨淡的水位，对于那些一直观察着河流缓慢危机突然加速的专家来说，这是一种可怕的局面。

“People have talked about the Colorado River crisis for decades—we’re now in it,” says John Berggren, a policy manager at environmental nonprofit Western Resource Advocates. “Everyone you talk to is like, ‘Shit, man. This is the year. Next year is the year.’ We’re really going to see: Can we get through it?” “几十年来人们一直在谈论科罗拉多河危机——我们现在正身处其中，”环保非营利组织“西部资源倡导者”（Western Resource Advocates）的政策经理约翰·伯格伦（John Berggren）说。“你和每个人交谈，他们都会说：‘天哪，就是今年了。明年就是关键一年。’我们真的要看看：我们能挺过去吗？”

A wet and snowy winter this year could help to temporarily stave off disaster as the states and the federal government scramble to come to a solution about the river’s future. And it’s true that El Niño should bring some relief to parts of the region that rely on the river. Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather says that one of the most “reliable” El Niño signals is wet weather in specific areas of the country, including some states that take water from the Colorado. 今年潮湿多雪的冬天或许能帮助暂时避免灾难，因为各州和联邦政府正在争分夺秒地为河流的未来寻找解决方案。厄尔尼诺现象确实应该能为依赖该河流的部分地区带来一些缓解。伯克利地球（Berkeley Earth）的气候科学家泽克·豪斯法瑟（Zeke Hausfather）表示，厄尔尼诺现象最“可靠”的信号之一就是美国特定地区的潮湿天气，其中包括一些从科罗拉多河取水的州。

“A strong El Niño does load the dice toward a wet winter across the southern US, from Southern California through亚利桑那州和新墨西哥州，一直到墨西哥湾沿岸，”他说。 “强厄尔尼诺现象确实增加了美国南部出现潮湿冬天的概率，从南加州穿过亚利桑那州和新墨西哥州，一直延伸到墨西哥湾沿岸，”他说。

Whether or not the crucial Upper Basin states, whose snowmelt feeds into the river and replenishes Lake Powell and Lake Mead, will get snowfall is another question entirely. Hausfather points out that during the last “very strong” El Niño, in the winter of 2015-16, the river’s Upper Basin experienced a “normal” amount of snowfall. “Peer-reviewed correlations between El Niño and Upper Basin snowpack or streamflow are modest at best,” he says. 关键的上游盆地各州的融雪是河流的主要补给来源，也是鲍威尔湖和米德湖的水源，这些州是否会迎来降雪则是另一个完全不同的问题。豪斯法瑟指出，在 2015-16 年冬季上一次“非常强”的厄尔尼诺现象期间，该河流的上游盆地仅经历了“正常”的降雪量。“经同行评审的厄尔尼诺现象与上游盆地积雪或径流量之间的相关性充其量只是适度的，”他说。

This year’s El Niño is shaping up to be the strongest on record. A normal El Niño and a “ridiculously strong El Niño” are “are almost two completely distinct things,” says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. 今年的厄尔尼诺现象正演变为有记录以来最强的一次。加州大学农业与自然资源部（University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources）的气候科学家丹尼尔·斯温（Daniel Swain）表示，正常的厄尔尼诺现象和“极其强烈的厄尔尼诺现象”几乎是两码事。

With how strong this El Niño is shaping up to be, Swain says, there’s a chance that some of the Upper Basin states could see some of that precipitation. But all experts say that the area most likely to be impacted is the Lower Basin states—which doesn’t do much to replenish Lake Powell and Lake Mead and help the river’s overall water supply. 斯温表示，鉴于这次厄尔尼诺现象的强度，上游盆地的一些州有可能获得部分降水。但所有专家都认为，最可能受到影响的地区是下游盆地各州——这对补充鲍威尔湖和米德湖的水位以及改善河流的整体供水作用不大。

Thanks to climate change, many states in the West have seen increasingly warmer winters, making snow droughts even more common. While Swain doesn’t think the West will see as warm a winter as last year, climate change has changed the baseline conditions of what constitutes a “normal” winter. That affects the kind of wetter weather that El Niño may bring. Precipitation can be “intercepted by drying soil, or re-evaporated directly into a thirstier atmosphere, or [fall] as rain rather than snow,” says Swain. “That won’t have the same effect as a good snow year in 1980 or 1990.” 由于气候变化，西部许多州的冬季越来越暖，使得“雪旱”变得更加普遍。虽然斯温认为西部不会像去年那样经历暖冬，但气候变化已经改变了构成“正常”冬季的基准条件。这影响了厄尔尼诺现象可能带来的潮湿天气。斯温说，降水可能“被干燥的土壤拦截，或直接重新蒸发到更干渴的大气中，或者以雨而非雪的形式落下。这不会产生与 1980 年或 1990 年大雪年份相同的效果。”

All of the experts agreed that the best-case scenario—in which the mountains that feed the Colorado get a record snowpack year, and Lake Powell and Lake Mead get pulled back from the brink—won’t be nearly enough to make a serious dent in the problem. El Niño is set to temporarily intensify global temperatures next year, highlighting just how quickly climate change is transforming the world. Some projections show that the river’s flow could shrink as much as 30 percent by 2050 thanks to climate change. 所有专家都一致认为，即使是最好的情况——即为科罗拉多河供水的山脉迎来创纪录的积雪年，鲍威尔湖和米德湖从崩溃边缘被拉回——也远不足以从根本上解决问题。厄尔尼诺现象预计将在明年暂时加剧全球气温，这凸显了气候变化正在以多快的速度改变世界。一些预测显示，受气候变化影响，到 2050 年，该河流的流量可能会减少多达 30%。

“Even one big year is not going to save us,” says Beggren. “It might be a sigh of relief, but we’ll be right back in it.” “即使有一个丰水年也救不了我们，”伯格伦说。“这或许能让人松一口气，但我们很快又会陷入同样的困境。”