Due to need for ‘absolute success,’ China delays critical Moon launch to 2027

因追求“绝对成功”，中国将关键探月任务推迟至2027年

China’s “Manned Space” program issued a terse announcement on Sunday regarding its much-anticipated Chang’e 7 lunar exploration mission. The agency stated: “In keeping with the principle of proceeding prudently and reliably, and ensuring absolute success, after a comprehensive assessment it has been determined that the Chang’e 7 mission does not meet the conditions for launch and therefore cannot be carried out during the planned launch window this year.” 中国载人航天工程办公室周日就备受瞩目的嫦娥七号探月任务发布了一则简短声明。声明称：“本着审慎可靠、确保绝对成功的原则，经综合评估，嫦娥七号任务目前不具备发射条件，因此无法在今年计划的发射窗口期内执行。”

The Chinese message offered no explanation for the cause of the delay from the Wenchang Space Launch Site, located on an island in the South China Sea. Consisting of a lunar orbiter, lander, rover, and a mini-hopper of a probe, the mission was due to launch as early as Sunday on a Long March 5 rocket. It is intended to land at the South Pole of the Moon. 中方并未说明位于南海岛屿上的文昌航天发射场推迟发射的具体原因。该任务由轨道器、着陆器、巡视器和飞跃探测器组成，原定于最早周日搭乘长征五号运载火箭发射，目标是着陆于月球南极。

Weather and launch windows

天气与发射窗口

Most likely, Sunday’s delayed launch was due to Typhoon Narra, which has 45-mph winds (equivalent to a moderate Tropical Storm) and continues to meander around in the waterway separating Hainan island, where the spaceport is located, and mainland China. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, this storm is expected to continue tracking in this general area for the next two or three days, likely providing inclement weather at the Wenchang launch site. 周日的发射推迟极有可能是受台风“娜拉”影响，该台风风速达每小时45英里（相当于中等热带风暴），目前仍在海南岛（航天发射场所在地）与中国大陆之间的海域徘徊。据联合台风警报中心预测，该风暴预计将在未来两到三天内继续在该区域移动，可能会给文昌发射场带来恶劣天气。

Plausibly, then, Chinese forecasters determined that the weather would not break before the current launch window to reach the lunar pole from Wenchang closes. Although official Chinese sources have provided no confirmed information, there has been social media chatter indicating that another suitable launch window may not open until next February or March. 因此，中国气象预报员很可能判定，在文昌前往月球南极的当前发射窗口关闭前，天气状况不会好转。尽管中国官方尚未提供确切信息，但社交媒体上有传言称，下一个合适的发射窗口可能要等到明年二月或三月才会开启。

Why so long?

为何推迟如此之久？

It likely is a combination of factors, including sunlight conditions in polar landing zones as well as the mission plan that requires a 90-day lunar orbit reconnaissance before landing. Another, lesser possibility, is that some technical issue was discovered at the last minute with either the complex Chang’e 7 payload, or the rocket. The large Long March 5 rocket shares an engine, the YF-100, with the Long March 7A vehicle that was lost during ascent two weeks ago. This engine issue seems unlikely to be the cause of the delay, however, as China had been proceeding toward launch in recent days. 这很可能是多种因素共同作用的结果，包括极区着陆点的光照条件，以及任务计划中要求的着陆前90天环月侦察。另一种可能性较小的原因是，嫦娥七号复杂的载荷或火箭在最后一刻发现了技术问题。大型长征五号火箭与两周前在上升过程中失利的长征七号甲运载火箭共用YF-100发动机。不过，发动机问题似乎不太可能是推迟的原因，因为中国在过去几天里一直都在推进发射准备工作。

Latest twist in the second space race

第二次太空竞赛的最新转折

The delay comes amid a tight contest between China and the United States to establish a meaningful presence at the South Pole of the Moon. Robotic missions such as Chang’e 7 are precursor flights for human missions that could follow in the next two to four years. Chang’e 7 is planned to land near one of the most compelling regions of the Moon, Shackleton Crater, very nearly at the South Pole. 此次推迟正值中美两国在月球南极建立实质性存在而展开激烈竞争之际。像嫦娥七号这样的机器人任务，是未来两到四年内可能进行的载人任务的先导飞行。嫦娥七号计划着陆在月球最引人注目的区域之一——沙克尔顿陨石坑附近，该位置非常接近南极点。

Much of the lunar surface is pretty barren, but the South Pole, and Shackleton Crater in particular, offers some of the most coveted real estate there. This is because the high rims of the crater create permanently shadowed regions known as “cold traps,” where it’s thought that water (in the form of ice, of course) and other useful materials may have accumulated over billions of years. In all of NASA’s and China’s plans for long-term settlement on the Moon, relatively few square miles at the South Pole of the Moon matter the most. 月球表面大部分地区相当荒凉，但南极，特别是沙克尔顿陨石坑，提供了月球上最令人垂涎的“地块”。这是因为陨石坑的高边缘形成了被称为“冷阱”的永久阴影区，据信水（以冰的形式存在）和其他有用物质可能已经在那里积累了数十亿年。在NASA和中国所有关于月球长期定居的计划中，月球南极仅有的几平方英里土地至关重要。

No country has softly landed a spacecraft at the lunar poles, which are more difficult to reach than equatorial regions of the Moon. The delay of Chang’e 7 opens up the possibility that NASA could reach this terrain first, with the initial launch of Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1 vehicle. This large lander will carry two NASA probes to the South Pole. 目前还没有国家在月球极区实现过软着陆，因为极区比月球赤道地区更难抵达。嫦娥七号的推迟增加了NASA率先抵达该区域的可能性，即通过蓝色起源公司“蓝月”Mark 1飞行器的首次发射。这款大型着陆器将携带两台NASA探测器前往南极。

Blue Moon was on track to launch this year before the loss of the New Glenn rocket, and its launch pad, at Cape Canaveral, Florida during a static fire test in May. Blue Origin has been hustling to rebuild its Launch Complex 36A facility in Florida, and aims to return New Glenn to flight before the end of this year. That is probably ambitious, but Blue Moon could plausibly launch during the first half of 2027, making for a close race with Chang’e 7 if it were to launch in February, and spend three months in lunar orbit before landing. 在今年5月“新格伦”火箭及其发射台在佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角进行静态点火测试中损毁之前，“蓝月”原定于今年发射。蓝色起源公司一直在加紧重建其位于佛罗里达州的36A发射设施，并计划在今年年底前让“新格伦”恢复飞行。这可能是一个雄心勃勃的目标，但“蓝月”完全有可能在2027年上半年发射。如果嫦娥七号在二月发射并进行为期三个月的环月飞行后再着陆，两者之间将展开一场激烈的竞争。