A Social Media Analysis of Discourse on the Israel—Palestine Conflict on Telegram

Telegram 上关于巴以冲突话语的社交媒体分析

Abstract: Social media has become a central arena in which armed conflicts are contested, yet the pro-Israel and pro-Palestine communities on Telegram, whose broadcast architecture yields an unusually direct record of deliberate political communication, have not been systematically compared at scale.

摘要： 社交媒体已成为武装冲突博弈的核心舞台。然而，Telegram 上的亲以色列和亲巴勒斯坦群体——其广播架构提供了极其直接的政治传播记录——尚未在规模上进行过系统性的对比研究。

This study presents a multi-method computational analysis of 87,617 messages from sixteen Telegram channels, eight pro-Israel and eight pro-Palestine, spanning May 2021 to June 2026 and covering multiple conflict escalations.

本研究对来自 16 个 Telegram 频道（8 个亲以色列，8 个亲巴勒斯坦）的 87,617 条消息进行了多方法计算分析，时间跨度从 2021 年 5 月至 2026 年 6 月，涵盖了多次冲突升级事件。

It combines sentiment analysis, three stance detection methods drawn from distinct paradigms (keyword matching, zero-shot DeBERTa via natural language inference, and a fine-tuned BERTweet model), and a framing analysis, all evaluated against 736 manually annotated messages.

研究结合了情感分析、三种源自不同范式的立场检测方法（关键词匹配、基于自然语言推理的零样本 DeBERTa 模型，以及微调后的 BERTweet 模型）和框架分析，并使用 736 条人工标注的消息对所有方法进行了评估。

The fine-tuned model performed best (72.1% accuracy, 0.721 macro F1 under 5-fold cross-validation), outperforming both label-free baselines by 8 to 11 points; the baselines stalled in the low-to-mid 60s, indicating a hard ceiling for stance detection not adapted to in-domain language.

微调后的模型表现最佳（在 5 折交叉验证下准确率为 72.1%，宏观 F1 分数为 0.721），比两种无标签基准模型高出 8 到 11 个百分点；基准模型的效果停滞在 60% 左右，这表明对于未针对特定领域语言进行适配的立场检测模型而言，存在难以突破的性能上限。

The central finding emerges only when sentiment, stance, and framing are read together: the two communities deploy the same death- and victim-related vocabulary in opposite emotional registers, pro-Israel channels predominantly neutral and report-style, pro-Palestine channels markedly more negative, consistent with writing from the distinct discourse positions of acting party and affected party.

只有将情感、立场和框架结合起来分析，才能得出核心发现：两个群体在描述死亡和受害者相关词汇时，采用了截然相反的情感基调——亲以色列频道主要表现为中立和报道风格，而亲巴勒斯坦频道则明显更为负面。这与双方作为“行动方”和“受影响方”的不同话语立场是一致的。