The Supreme Court’s Mail-In Ballot Ruling Is a Step Toward Chaos in the Midterms
The Supreme Court’s Mail-In Ballot Ruling Is a Step Toward Chaos in the Midterms
最高法院关于邮寄选票的裁决是中期选举陷入混乱的一步
The US Supreme Court ruled on Monday that President Donald Trump’s executive order imposing severe restrictions on voting by mail ahead of November’s midterms can proceed. While a nationwide injunction preventing the US Postal Service from implementing the order remains in place, election officials and experts believe Monday’s ruling could still result in chaos and voters being disenfranchised. 美国最高法院周一裁定，唐纳德·特朗普总统在11月中期选举前对邮寄投票实施严格限制的行政命令可以继续推进。尽管一项阻止美国邮政署（USPS）执行该命令的全国性禁令仍然有效，但选举官员和专家认为，周一的裁决仍可能导致混乱，并使选民失去投票权。
The Supreme Court ruling, which split along ideological lines, paused an injunction by a federal judge in Boston that prevented the Trump administration from applying provisions of the executive order to 23 states, along with the District of Columbia. 最高法院的这项裁决在意识形态阵营上出现了分歧，它暂停了波士顿一名联邦法官此前下达的禁令，该禁令曾阻止特朗普政府将该行政命令的条款应用于23个州以及哥伦比亚特区。
The court didn’t rule on the legality of the order, which seeks to impose federal oversight on elections that are, under the Constitution, controlled by states. The conservative majority ruled, rather, that the states that brought the lawsuit did not have standing because they could not show actual damage caused by the order. 法院并未就该命令的合法性作出裁决，该命令旨在对根据宪法应由各州控制的选举实施联邦监管。相反，保守派多数派裁定，提起诉讼的各州不具备诉讼资格，因为它们无法证明该命令造成了实际损害。
“The court’s disposition of this application does not mean that any measure taken by the government to implement the order will necessarily be lawful,” the majority wrote in an unsigned opinion. “On that score, time will tell.” “法院对这一申请的处理并不意味着政府为执行该命令所采取的任何措施必然合法，”多数派在一份未署名的意见书中写道。“在这方面，时间会给出答案。”
The executive order is predicated on the baseless allegations pushed by Trump and his allies that widespread mail-in voter fraud has altered the outcomes of recent elections. (To put the claims in perspective, a database of supposed voter fraud incidents, maintained by the right-wing Heritage Foundation and dating back to 1980, contains fewer than 100 proven examples of noncitizen voting of any sort.) Experts and election officials have long warned that if implemented in full, the executive order would disenfranchise millions of voters. In a blistering dissent, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson agreed, writing that the ruling could create a “Kafkaesque nightmare [that] needlessly injects chaos and uncertainty into the upcoming midterm elections.” 该行政命令基于特朗普及其盟友散布的毫无根据的指控，即广泛的邮寄选票欺诈改变了近期选举的结果。（为了客观地看待这些说法，由右翼传统基金会维护的、可追溯至1980年的所谓选民欺诈事件数据库中，非公民投票的证实案例不到100起。）专家和选举官员长期以来一直警告称，如果全面实施，该行政命令将剥夺数百万选民的投票权。凯坦吉·布朗·杰克逊大法官在措辞严厉的异议书中表示赞同，她写道，这一裁决可能会制造一场“卡夫卡式的噩梦，不必要地给即将到来的中期选举注入混乱和不确定性。”
Despite the possibly temporary nature of this victory, election denial groups cheered the result as a major victory for so-called election integrity efforts. And experts worry that even if Trump’s executive order is eventually blocked, the decision will still have a direct impact on voter turnout in November by sowing doubts about the legitimacy of mail-in voting. 尽管这一胜利可能是暂时的，但选举否认团体对这一结果欢呼雀跃，称其为所谓“选举诚信”努力的重大胜利。专家们担心，即使特朗普的行政命令最终被阻止，该决定仍会通过播下对邮寄投票合法性的怀疑，直接影响11月的选民投票率。
“Voting rights organizations have experienced first-hand the significant confusion that President Trump’s executive order is causing right now,” the counsel and plaintiffs in a second lawsuit against Trump’s executive order wrote in a statement on Monday. “With the November election right around the corner, nonpartisan voting rights groups should be fully engaged in the vital work of educating all eligible voters to prepare to cast their ballots. Instead, plaintiffs and similar organizations are scrambling to understand how the rules may change while fielding inquiries from voters who rely on mail ballots and who are confused and fearful about how they will exercise their right to vote.” “投票权组织已经亲身体会到特朗普总统的行政命令目前正在造成严重的混乱，”针对特朗普行政命令的第二起诉讼的律师和原告在周一的一份声明中写道。“随着11月选举临近，无党派投票权组织本应全身心投入到教育所有合格选民准备投票的重要工作中。然而，原告和类似组织却不得不忙于弄清规则可能如何改变，同时还要应对那些依赖邮寄选票、对如何行使投票权感到困惑和恐惧的选民的咨询。”
The Executive Order / 行政命令
Almost one third of US voters cast their ballots by mail, including around one in four Republican voters. (Trump himself voted by mail in this year’s GOP primary in Florida.) In eight states, more than 70 percent of ballots were cast by mail during the 2024 elections. 近三分之一的美国选民通过邮寄方式投票，其中包括约四分之一的共和党选民。（特朗普本人在今年佛罗里达州的共和党初选中也是通过邮寄投票的。）在2024年的选举中，有八个州的邮寄选票比例超过了70%。
Despite years of false claims from Trump and his allies about widespread mail-in voter fraud, there is no evidence to back up those claims. But in March, Trump signed an executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections.” The order contains three distinct provisions. 尽管特朗普及其盟友多年来一直散布关于广泛邮寄选票欺诈的虚假指控，但没有任何证据支持这些说法。然而在3月，特朗普签署了一项名为“确保联邦选举中的公民身份核实与诚信”的行政命令。该命令包含三项不同的条款。
The first directs the Department of Homeland Security to compile a “State Citizenship List” of individuals confirmed to be US citizens and deemed eligible to vote in each state. The list would be compiled from Social Security Administration records, Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) data, and federal citizenship and naturalization records. The list would need to be sent to states 60 days before the election. That date is Friday, September 4—just 11 days after the Supreme Court ruling. 第一项条款指示国土安全部编制一份“州公民身份名单”，列出在各州被确认拥有美国公民身份并被认为有资格投票的个人。该名单将根据社会保障局记录、系统性外国人权利核实（SAVE）数据以及联邦公民身份和入籍记录编制。该名单需在选举前60天发送给各州。这一日期是9月4日星期五——距离最高法院裁决仅过去11天。
“This would create a parallel federal eligibility infrastructure on top of existing state voter rolls,” Issue One, a nonprofit seeking to reduce the role of money in politics, wrote shortly after the order was issued. “这将在现有的州选民名册之上建立一套平行的联邦资格审查基础设施，”旨在减少金钱在政治中影响的非营利组织“Issue One”在该命令发布后不久写道。
The second provision targets election officials by demanding that the US attorney general “prioritize the investigation and, as appropriate, the prosecution of State and local officials … who issue Federal ballots to individuals not eligible to vote in a Federal election.” 第二项条款针对选举官员，要求美国司法部长“优先调查并酌情起诉那些……向无权参加联邦选举的个人发放联邦选票的州和地方官员。”
The final provision in the order directs the USPS to create new rules for absentee and mail-in ballots. Under the rules, states would need to provide the USPS with a list of voters they intend to send ballots to. The order prevents the USPS from sending ballots to anyone not on the list. This rule would require the printing of millions of new ballot envelopes with trackable barcodes. 该命令的最后一项条款指示美国邮政署为缺席选票和邮寄选票制定新规则。根据这些规则，各州需要向邮政署提供一份他们打算寄送选票的选民名单。该命令禁止邮政署向名单外的人寄送选票。这项规则将需要印制数百万个带有可追踪条形码的新选票信封。
Last week, before the Supreme Court ruling was issued, the USPS issued a 95-page final rule explaining how it plans to enforce Trump’s proposed changes to mail-in voting in order to “reduce the risk of fraud, and help protect the integrity of federal elections.” The rule compares mail-in ballots to fake bombs or cremated animal remains. The New York Times reported on Monday that Trump is seeking to take control over the USPS board by stacking it with members who have questioned the outcome of the 2020 election. 上周，在最高法院裁决发布之前，美国邮政署发布了一份95页的最终规则，解释了它计划如何执行特朗普提出的邮寄投票改革，以“降低欺诈风险，并帮助保护联邦选举的诚信”。该规则将邮寄选票比作炸弹模型或火化的动物遗骸。《纽约时报》周一报道称，特朗普正试图通过安插质疑2020年选举结果的成员来控制美国邮政署董事会。
The provisions of the executive order were mostly blocked by federal courts before the Trump administration appealed the rulings to the Supreme Court in July. Earlier than this month, the administration pushed the court to issue a ruling quickly, claiming that failing to do so would cause “irreparable harm to the federal government, the public, and election integrity.” 在特朗普政府于7月向最高法院提出上诉之前，该行政命令的条款大多已被联邦法院阻止。本月初，特朗普政府敦促法院尽快作出裁决，声称如果不这样做，将对“联邦政府、公众和选举诚信造成不可挽回的损害。”