AI is hitting entry-level jobs hardest, Stanford study finds

斯坦福大学研究发现：人工智能对入门级职位的冲击最为严重

For years, AI industry watchers of all stripes have been warning of a coming jobs apocalypse driven by ultra-intelligent AI systems that will be able to replicate most human tasks more cheaply. Now, newly updated research from Stanford University economists suggests AI seems to be causing significant entry-level job losses for younger workers in some fields, even as older workers appear largely unaffected so far. 多年来，各界的 AI 行业观察人士一直在警告，由超智能 AI 系统驱动的“就业末日”即将到来，这些系统将能够以更低的成本复制大多数人类任务。如今，斯坦福大学经济学家的一项最新研究表明，人工智能似乎正在导致某些领域年轻员工的入门级职位大量流失，而年长员工目前似乎基本未受影响。

The August 2026 edition of “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence” updates and revises a paper of the same name published last year with fresh data and refined statistics. In that update, the Stanford researchers find the employment trends they identified for entry-level workers last year are persisting and expanding. Specifically, employment levels for workers ages 22 to 25 in the most “AI-exposed” occupations are now 19 percent below those of their peers in fields less exposed to AI disruption. Last year, that gap measured just 13 percent. 2026 年 8 月版的《煤矿里的金丝雀？关于人工智能近期就业影响的六个事实》一文，利用最新数据和更精确的统计资料，对去年发表的同名论文进行了更新和修订。在这次更新中，斯坦福大学的研究人员发现，他们去年观察到的入门级员工就业趋势正在持续并扩大。具体而言，在受“AI 影响”最严重的职业中，22 至 25 岁员工的就业水平目前比受 AI 干扰较小领域的同龄人低 19%。而去年，这一差距仅为 13%。

To determine those numbers, the researchers used a large subsample of the anonymized, high-frequency payroll data regularly aggregated by HR management company ADP. The team then rated each occupation’s “exposure” to AI disruption using both a potential labor market impact gauge established by previous researchers and the Anthropic Economic Index, which looks at how various occupations actually use the Claude model in their everyday work. 为了得出这些数据，研究人员使用了人力资源管理公司 ADP 定期汇总的大量匿名高频工资数据子样本。随后，研究团队利用先前研究人员建立的潜在劳动力市场影响指标，以及“Anthropic 经济指数”（该指数考察了不同职业在日常工作中实际使用 Claude 模型的情况），对每个职业受 AI 干扰的“暴露程度”进行了评估。

When crunching the numbers economy-wide, the researchers found little to no difference in relative overall employment between the jobs judged most and least affected by AI on these metrics. When separating out workers ages 22 to 25, though, the researchers found that, since 2022, employment in the top 40 percent of “AI-impacted” jobs had fallen by about 11 percent. In the 60 percent of jobs with the least AI impact, by contrast, total employment for those young workers grew by 10 percent over the same period. 在对全经济范围的数据进行分析时，研究人员发现，根据这些指标判断受 AI 影响最大和最小的职位，其整体相对就业率几乎没有差异。然而，当将 22 至 25 岁的员工单独列出时，研究人员发现，自 2022 年以来，受“AI 影响”最严重的 40% 的职位中，就业人数下降了约 11%。相比之下，在受 AI 影响最小的 60% 的职位中，同期这些年轻员工的总就业人数增长了 10%。

Digging deeper into the data, the researchers found that this phenomenon is mainly manifesting itself through lower hiring rates for entry-level workers in AI-impacted fields, rather than increased firings or employees quitting. They also found that the labor market effects among this age group were mostly seen in lower overall employment, rather than reduced pay rates. 深入挖掘数据后，研究人员发现，这种现象主要表现为受 AI 影响领域对入门级员工的招聘率降低，而非裁员或员工离职率增加。他们还发现，这一年龄段的劳动力市场影响主要体现在整体就业人数减少，而非薪资水平下降。

But not all jobs that show potential for AI “disruption” are created equal, the researchers found. In its Economic Index, Anthropic differentiates between queries related to tasks that are “automative” (i.e., fully replacing work previously done by a human) or “augmentative” (i.e., helping human workers be more effective at tasks they are still needed for). By this measure, jobs like “accountants and auditors” and “receptionists and information clerks” were among those judged most susceptible to AI automation, while jobs like “chief executive” and “registered nurse” were among those using AI augmentation most often. 研究人员发现，并非所有具有 AI “干扰”潜力的工作都是一样的。Anthropic 在其经济指数中区分了与“自动化”（即完全取代以前由人类完成的工作）或“增强型”（即帮助人类员工更有效地完成他们仍需参与的任务）相关的任务查询。按照这一标准，“会计师和审计师”以及“接待员和信息文员”等职业被认为最容易受到 AI 自动化的影响，而“首席执行官”和“注册护士”等职业则属于最常使用 AI 增强功能的行列。

The researchers also theorized that entry-level workers could be especially affected by AI’s impact on jobs that require heavily “codified” knowledge—the kind of “formal, standardized, documented knowledge that can be taught through education, textbooks, or written procedures.” That would contrast with jobs where AI mainly complements an experienced worker’s more “tacit” knowledge, which is overwhelmingly “acquired through practice, mentorship, and repeated exposure to real situations.” 研究人员还推测，入门级员工可能特别容易受到 AI 对那些需要高度“编码化”知识的工作的影响——即那种“可以通过教育、教科书或书面程序传授的正式、标准化、文档化的知识”。这与 AI 主要作为经验丰富的员工的“隐性”知识补充的工作形成了对比，后者主要“通过实践、指导和反复接触真实情况获得”。