Democrats Just Might Win the Senate
Democrats Just Might Win the Senate
民主党人或许真的能赢得参议院
With primary elections in the key 2026 battleground states largely complete, Democrats have emerged with several open paths to take the majority in the US Senate. 随着2026年关键摇摆州的初选基本结束，民主党人已经开辟出几条通往美国参议院多数席位的可行路径。
The basic contours of the national map remain uphill for Democrats. They currently hold 47 seats in the Senate, meaning they need to flip four Republican seats and hold their current ones, including in Michigan and Georgia, which President Donald Trump won in 2024. 从全国版图的基本轮廓来看，民主党人的处境依然艰难。他们目前在参议院拥有47个席位，这意味着他们需要翻转四个共和党席位，并保住现有的席位，其中包括唐纳德·特朗普总统在2024年获胜的密歇根州和佐治亚州。
But presiding over an unpopular Iran war that has dragged on for six months and resulted in high gas and grocery prices, Trump’s approval rating is now consistently below 40 percent, a historically perilous level. A Reuters/Ipsos poll has shown his approval nearing 30 percent. 然而，由于主持了一场已拖延六个月且导致汽油和食品价格高涨的不得人心的伊朗战争，特朗普的支持率目前持续低于40%，处于历史性的危险水平。路透社/益普索（Reuters/Ipsos）的一项民调显示，他的支持率已接近30%。
The last time a Republican president was presiding over an unpopular war and spiking gas prices with less than 40 percent approval—George W. Bush in 2006—Democrats picked up six seats and took control of the Senate. 上一次共和党总统在支持率不足40%的情况下，主持一场不得人心的战争并面对飙升的油价时——即2006年的乔治·W·布什时期——民主党人赢得了六个席位并夺取了参议院的控制权。
As a result, political strategists tell Inner Loop, there are now several states in play for Democrats beyond the four-state path of Alaska, North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine envisioned by Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer at the start of the year. 因此，政治策略师告诉《Inner Loop》，除了参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）在年初设想的阿拉斯加、北卡罗来纳、俄亥俄和缅因这四个州的路径外，现在还有几个州也成为了民主党人的争夺目标。
Alaska and North Carolina
阿拉斯加州与北卡罗来纳州
The picture for Democratic pickups remains perhaps brightest in Alaska and North Carolina, two states where Democrats have candidates that have previously won statewide elections and are polling ahead of their Republican opponents. 民主党人夺取席位的前景在阿拉斯加州和北卡罗来纳州或许最为明朗，在这两个州，民主党候选人都曾赢得过全州范围的选举，且目前的民调支持率领先于共和党对手。
In conservative-leaning Alaska, former representative Mary Peltola is leading incumbent Dan S. Sullivan by more than 5 percentage points in the state’s nonpartisan primary, according to incomplete results, suggesting Democratic voters are highly engaged in that race. 在倾向保守的阿拉斯加州，根据不完全统计结果，前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉（Mary Peltola）在该州的无党派初选中以超过5个百分点的优势领先现任议员丹·S·沙利文（Dan S. Sullivan），这表明民主党选民对这场竞选参与度极高。
In an added annoyance for Republicans, a retired teacher named Dan J. Sullivan won a spot on the general-election ballot Tuesday—a development that could split the GOP vote if Alaskans get the two Sullivans mixed up. 令共和党人感到额外困扰的是，一位名叫丹·J·沙利文（Dan J. Sullivan）的退休教师周二赢得了大选选票上的席位——如果阿拉斯加选民混淆了这两位“沙利文”，这一进展可能会分流共和党的选票。
If the midterms are decided as much by turnout as other political factors, a similar turnout in the general election could give Peltola an edge in a race the nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently moved from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.” 如果中期选举的结果不仅取决于政治因素，还取决于投票率，那么大选中类似的投票率可能会让佩尔托拉在竞选中占据优势。无党派的《库克政治报告》（Cook Political Report）最近已将该选区的评级从“倾向共和党”调整为“胜负难料”。
Meanwhile, in North Carolina, former Democratic governor Roy Cooper, who has never lost an election, is running as a tough-on-crime moderate against Trump-endorsed candidate Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman. 与此同时，在北卡罗来纳州，从未输过选举的前民主党州长罗伊·库珀（Roy Cooper）正以“严厉打击犯罪的温和派”身份参选，对阵特朗普背书的候选人、前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利（Michael Whatley）。
Cooper has consistently led in the North Carolina Senate race, sometimes by as much as double digits. One early August poll had Cooper some 13 points ahead. 库珀在北卡罗来纳州的参议院竞选中一直保持领先，有时领先优势甚至达到两位数。8月初的一项民调显示，库珀领先约13个百分点。
Ohio
俄亥俄州
Democratic strategists also see former senator Sherrod Brown as a good prospect to flip a seat in Ohio, an agriculture-heavy state that is reliably Republican but was, not long ago, the swing state of swing states and has been hit hard by rising costs and discontent over data centers. 民主党策略师还认为，前参议员谢罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）是翻转俄亥俄州席位的有力人选。该州以农业为主，虽然是共和党的稳固票仓，但不久前还是“摇摆州中的摇摆州”，且目前正受到成本上升和对数据中心不满情绪的沉重打击。
This month, the Senate Republican campaign arm warned in a memo to top AI labs that voter opposition toward data centers is sinking incumbent senator Jon Husted. 本月，参议院共和党竞选机构在给顶级人工智能实验室的一份备忘录中警告称，选民对数据中心的反对情绪正在拖累现任参议员乔恩·哈斯特德（Jon Husted）。
Brown spent millions of dollars on an ad campaign this summer painting Husted as the “face of data centers in Ohio.” Brown has pulled ahead in August polling in a race the Cook Political Report rates as a toss-up. 布朗今年夏天花费数百万美元进行广告宣传，将哈斯特德描绘成“俄亥俄州数据中心的代言人”。在《库克政治报告》评级为“胜负难料”的这场竞选中，布朗在8月份的民调中已经实现反超。
Texas and Maine
得克萨斯州与缅因州
If Democrats can win those three battleground states and hold their current seat in Michigan—there is some worry about the nominee Abdul El-Sayed after a bruising primary, although he is back ahead in some polls—the party would need just one more pickup. 如果民主党人能赢得上述三个摇摆州，并保住他们在密歇根州的现有席位——尽管在激烈的初选后，人们对候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）有些担忧，但他目前在一些民调中已重回领先——那么该党只需要再多拿下一个席位即可。
Senate Democratic leaders have been quietly optimistic about their prospects in traditionally red Texas, where Republicans nominated Ken Paxton, the state’s beleaguered attorney general, to run against James Talarico. 参议院民主党领袖对他们在传统红州得克萨斯州的前景持谨慎乐观态度。共和党人在该州提名了深陷困境的州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton），与詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）对决。
Talarico has turned out to be a charismatic politician and prolific fundraiser, raking in $69 million in campaign contributions compared with Paxton’s $9 million, according to the most recent FEC filings. 根据最新的联邦选举委员会（FEC）备案，塔拉里科已证明自己是一位富有魅力的政治家和高效的筹款人，他筹集了6900万美元的竞选捐款，而帕克斯顿仅筹得900万美元。
While WIRED previously reported that Elon Musk’s America PAC is expected to pour some of its projected $100 million to $200 million spend into the Texas race, Democrats see momentum with Talarico. 尽管《连线》（WIRED）此前报道称，埃隆·马斯克的“美国政治行动委员会”（America PAC）预计将把其计划支出的1亿至2亿美元中的一部分投入到得克萨斯州的竞选中，但民主党人认为塔拉里科正处于上升势头。
An Emerson College poll at the start of August had Paxton ahead by a single percentage point in what should be a ruby-red Texas, while a YouGov poll around the same time had Talarico three points ahead. 8月初的一项爱默生学院（Emerson College）民调显示，在理应是深红色的得克萨斯州，帕克斯顿仅领先1个百分点；而同一时期的一项YouGov民调则显示，塔拉里科领先3个百分点。
If not in Texas, Democrats also have a possible route through Maine, although Schumer’s plan is in worse shape there after the original nominee, Graham Platner, was accused of rape—a claim he’s denied—and dropped out. 如果得克萨斯州失利，民主党人还有可能通过缅因州突围，尽管舒默在该州的计划因原候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳（Graham Platner）被指控强奸（他本人否认该指控）并退选后，处境变得更加糟糕。
Democrats moved to quickly coalesce around Troy Jackson, who faces longtime incumbent Republican senator Susan Collins. Some party leaders are worried whether liberal voters will back Jackson after the messy primary. As in Michigan, though, Trump’s trade policies could bolster Democrats, given how tightly integrated the border states’ economies are with Canada’s. 民主党人迅速转向支持特洛伊·杰克逊（Troy Jackson），他将面对长期在任的共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）。一些党内领导人担心，在混乱的初选之后，自由派选民是否会支持杰克逊。不过，正如在密歇根州一样，考虑到边境州的经济与加拿大的紧密联系，特朗普的贸易政策可能会对民主党人起到助推作用。
This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here. 本文是雨果·洛厄尔（Hugo Lowell）的《Inner Loop》通讯。点击此处阅读往期通讯。