Bill Gates says we’ve passed AI’s danger thresholds. Now what?

比尔·盖茨：我们已跨越人工智能的危险阈值，接下来该怎么办？

It’s a glorious day in Kirkland, Washington, an affluent Seattle suburb on the eastern shore of Lake Washington. The temperature is in the mid-80s, and the sky is incapable of being any more blue. The view from the Gates Ventures conference room overlooks the Carillon Point Marina, where a flotilla of expensive boats bob in the water, and across the lake to the Olympic Mountains that define the horizon. It’s gorgeous. And vaguely terrifying. Because if the scene is placid, the messenger is not.

华盛顿州柯克兰是一个阳光明媚的日子，这里是西雅图东岸华盛顿湖畔的一个富裕郊区。气温在华氏80多度（约29摄氏度），天空蓝得无可挑剔。从盖茨创投（Gates Ventures）会议室望去，可以俯瞰卡里隆角码头（Carillon Point Marina），那里停泊着一队昂贵的游艇，在水中轻轻摇曳；隔湖望去，奥林匹克山脉构成了地平线的轮廓。这一切美不胜收，却又隐约让人感到恐惧。因为尽管眼前的景象宁静祥和，但传达信息的人却并非如此。

Seated across from me at a conference room table, Bill Gates is rocking back and forth in his chair, totally animated. And the more he has to say—about the threats of terror or economic collapse or just losing control of our AI systems—the more agitated I find myself becoming, too. The philanthropist and former Microsoft CEO says he has been growing increasingly alarmed by the rate of change at which AI technology is advancing, especially since guardrails are not keeping pace.

坐在会议桌对面，比尔·盖茨在椅子上前后摇晃，神情十分激动。他谈论的内容越多——关于恐怖主义威胁、经济崩溃，或是仅仅关于失去对人工智能系统的控制——我就越感到不安。这位慈善家、前微软首席执行官表示，他对人工智能技术的发展速度感到越来越担忧，尤其是因为安全护栏的建设并没有跟上步伐。

In a new essay published today, Gates argues that we have passed the points where multiple potential dangers should have been checked. “We’ve crossed the threshold in terms of [AI’s] bio-capabilities, cyber-capabilities, psychosocial capabilities, job-market-destruction capabilities, and even the lack of control,” he said in an interview with MIT Technology Review about his new memo. “I’m just stunned at the lack of concern and discussion outside of the industry.”

在今天发表的一篇新文章中，盖茨指出，我们已经错过了本应控制多种潜在危险的关键节点。在接受《麻省理工科技评论》关于其新备忘录的采访时，他说：“我们在人工智能的生物能力、网络能力、社会心理能力、就业市场破坏能力，甚至失控风险方面，都已经跨越了阈值。我对行业之外缺乏关注和讨论感到震惊。”

In an effort to wake the world up to what he sees as a rapidly growing societal disrupter, the 70-year-old tech titan has begun sounding the alarm as a “shrill voice,” both publicly with his new essay (the first of multiple he plans on the topic) and in meetings with the press, and privately in conversations with industry, government, and civil society leaders. And while Gates is calling attention to a number of issues, his warnings about the bio-capabilities of the current frontier models are especially chilling. “Any model that can make novel molecules should be monitored,” he says. “I view bioterrorism risk, versus a natural pandemic, as about 50 times more scary, more likely than a natural pandemic risk.”

为了唤醒世界，让人们意识到他眼中这个正在迅速增长的社会颠覆者，这位70岁的科技巨头开始发出“刺耳的警报”。他不仅通过新文章（这是他计划撰写的系列文章中的第一篇）公开表态，还在媒体会议以及与行业、政府和民间社会领导人的私下谈话中不断敲响警钟。虽然盖茨提请人们关注多个问题，但他对当前前沿模型生物能力的警告尤为令人不寒而栗。“任何能够制造新型分子的模型都应该受到监控，”他说，“我认为生物恐怖主义风险比自然大流行病可怕约50倍，发生的可能性也更高。”

In addition to the cautionary notes, he also advances some novel ideas for moving society forward. Among them are the concepts of human-reserved jobs, and taxes on robots and tokens. (A robot tax is a longtime notion of his.) The former would preserve some societally agreed-upon jobs for human beings, which he notes may vary from one nation to another. The latter is a tax that sets aside money earned from AI usage that replaces human work. And to be sure, there is also a hint of optimism. Gates is bullish on the ways AI will continue to transform agriculture and health care and education, for example, or the ways in which it can help us navigate bureaucracy. And, he argues, eventually we do get to abundance. But first? Turbulence. And lots of it.

除了警示之外，他还提出了一些推动社会进步的新颖想法。其中包括“人类保留岗位”的概念，以及对机器人和代币征税（机器人税是他长期以来的观点）。前者旨在为人类保留一些社会共识下的工作岗位，他指出这在不同国家可能有所不同；后者则是对取代人类工作的AI使用所产生的收益进行征税。当然，其中也有一丝乐观情绪。盖茨看好人工智能在持续改变农业、医疗保健和教育等领域的方式，或者它帮助我们应对官僚主义的方式。他认为，最终我们确实会走向富足。但在此之前呢？动荡，而且是大量的动荡。

MIT Technology Review sat down with the billionaire philanthropist to talk about the road that lies ahead, its dangers, and how it could someday take us to a better place. The following interview has been edited for length and to improve clarity and readability.

《麻省理工科技评论》与这位亿万富翁慈善家进行了深入交谈，探讨了前方的道路、其中的危险，以及它如何能在某一天将我们带向更好的未来。以下采访内容经过删减，以提高清晰度和可读性。

Mat Honan / MIT Technology Review: Thanks for doing this. I don’t know if you had something you wanted to open with, or I can just jump in. Mat Honan / 《麻省理工科技评论》：感谢您接受采访。不知道您是否有开场白，还是我直接开始提问？

Bill Gates: You know, one good question I’ve had is: Why am I speaking out now? 比尔·盖茨： 你知道，我一直在思考的一个好问题是：为什么我现在要站出来说话？

MIT Technology Review: Literally, my first question! 《麻省理工科技评论》：这简直就是我的第一个问题！

Bill Gates: It’s really two things. One is that we’ve crossed the thresholds in terms of the bio-capabilities, cyber-capabilities, psychosocial capabilities, job-market-destruction capabilities, and even the lack of control; we’re seeing signs of difficulties there. And all these years, people have said, “Okay, when we get close to these thresholds, we’ll really figure out how to let only good people use it, or how to not let it do these things, and maybe that’s when we won’t let people copy models.” And I’m in a state of shock that we’ve crossed these thresholds. So the fact that we’ve gotten past these is one reason, and the second is that I’m just stunned at the lack of concern and discussion outside of the industry. Within the industry, it’s complicated because the industry doesn’t like criticizing itself, or players like criticizing each other. Some companies are hiring fewer entry-level workers, which you’d have to call a pretty modest signal. But it’s going to happen, and not in any long time frame—because the things that hold people back in terms of capabilities and reliability, all those things are being solved. And so for a substantial part of the white-collar market, you have very low-cost substitution. And then you can have an opinion on how quickly robotics come along. We’re not there yet, but it is stunning the progress being made there—a little bit more in China than in the US, but somewhat in both. 比尔·盖茨： 其实主要有两点原因。第一，我们在生物能力、网络能力、社会心理能力、就业市场破坏能力，甚至失控风险方面都已经跨越了阈值；我们已经看到了困难的迹象。多年来，人们一直说：“好吧，当我们接近这些阈值时，我们一定会想出办法，只让好人使用它，或者不让它做这些坏事，也许到那时我们就会限制人们复制模型。”而我们竟然已经跨越了这些阈值，这让我感到震惊。所以，我们已经越过了这些界限是一个原因；第二个原因是，我对行业之外缺乏关注和讨论感到震惊。在行业内部，情况很复杂，因为行业不喜欢自我批评，参与者也不喜欢互相批评。一些公司正在减少招聘入门级员工，这只能算是一个相当温和的信号。但这种情况终将发生，而且不会在很长的时间跨度内——因为那些在能力和可靠性方面阻碍人们的问题，正在被一一解决。因此，对于很大一部分白领市场来说，你将面临极低成本的替代。至于机器人技术的发展速度，你可以有自己的看法。我们还没到那一步，但那里的进展令人惊叹——中国比美国稍微快一点，但两国都有所进展。

MIT Technology Review: You talked about all of this happening so much faster than the internet revolution did, than some of these previous technological revolutions did. What type of timescale are you talking about? You pointed to the thresholds that we’ve crossed. In your view, have we already passed some sort of tipping point where there’s going to be this inevitable change? 《麻省理工科技评论》：您提到这一切发生的速度比互联网革命以及之前的一些技术革命要快得多。您所指的时间尺度是怎样的？您指出了我们已经跨越的阈值。在您看来，我们是否已经越过了某种临界点，从而导致这种变革变得不可避免？

Bill Gates: The past definitely is very misleading on this, and a lot of people lean on that. “Hey, no previous technology resulted in a net jobs reduction,” and they’re right. And I’ve given that speech. But with any credibility that I have, this time is different. When you can replace human cognition for an extremely high percentage of jobs across every industry in the same time frame at modest cost, relative to human labor costs, and your error rates … will probably be lower than human rates. The past is just very misleading. The current economic statistics are very misleading. 比尔·盖茨： 过去在这方面确实非常具有误导性，很多人都依赖于过去的经验。“嘿，以前没有任何技术导致过净就业岗位减少，”他们说得对。我也曾发表过那样的演讲。但以我所有的信誉担保，这次不同了。当你在相同的时间框架内，以相对于人力成本而言适中的成本，取代各行各业中极高比例工作岗位的人类认知能力时，而且你的错误率……很可能低于人类的错误率。过去（的经验）确实非常具有误导性。当前的经济统计数据也非常具有误导性。