AI industry says Trump plans to tax chips in the “single dumbest way imaginable”
AI industry says Trump plans to tax chips in the “single dumbest way imaginable”
AI 行业称特朗普计划以“能想象到的最愚蠢方式”对芯片征税
Donald Trump may be preparing to announce sweeping new semiconductor tariffs at the absolute worst time, the tech industry fears. On Thursday, Politico reported that a wide range of new semiconductor tariffs, which the tech industry expects will “doom” artificial intelligence innovation in the US, could be imposed in the coming “weeks or months.”
科技行业担心，唐纳德·特朗普可能正准备在最糟糕的时机宣布全面征收新的半导体关税。据《政治报》（Politico）周四报道，一系列新的半导体关税可能会在未来“几周或几个月内”实施，科技行业预计这将“扼杀”美国的各种人工智能创新。
About eight people familiar with the Trump administration’s plans were granted anonymity to discuss how the tariffs might work. They suggested that the framework for tariffs may change as it becomes finalized, but one approach under consideration could “dramatically expand the number of tech products subject to the duties, hitting not just chips but potentially many of the goods made with them, such as gaming consoles or the servers that fill data centers.”
约八位熟悉特朗普政府计划的人士在匿名情况下讨论了关税的运作方式。他们表示，关税框架在最终确定前可能会有所调整，但目前考虑的一种方案可能会“大幅扩大受关税影响的科技产品范围，不仅涉及芯片，还可能波及许多使用芯片制造的商品，例如游戏机或填充数据中心的服务器。”
That scenario is the tech industry’s nightmare. Since Trump took office, trade groups have warned that imposing tariffs on both semiconductors and the many downstream products that use semiconductors—potentially even taxing used or refurbished products that contain chips—would be ruinous for the economy.
这种局面是科技行业的噩梦。自特朗普上任以来，贸易团体一直警告称，对半导体以及使用半导体的众多下游产品征收关税——甚至可能包括对含有芯片的二手或翻新产品征税——将对经济造成毁灭性打击。
Most absurdly, given the priorities of Trump’s AI Action Plan, that tariff approach would cost the US about $90 billion annually in GDP losses and cause about 20 percent of data center projects planned through 2030 to be delayed or canceled, the Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) estimated in June. The tariffs could even drive more data center development outside the US, the CCIA warned, which seems counterproductive, since Trump is imposing them in order to force more development into the US.
最荒谬的是，考虑到特朗普“人工智能行动计划”的优先事项，计算机与通信行业协会（CCIA）在6月份估计，这种关税方案每年将导致美国损失约900亿美元的GDP，并导致到2030年计划中的数据中心项目约20%被推迟或取消。CCIA警告称，这些关税甚至可能促使更多数据中心开发项目流向美国境外，这似乎适得其反，因为特朗普征收关税的初衷正是为了迫使更多开发项目留在美国。
Beyond disrupting the momentum of data centers, the tariffs could have wide-ranging ripple effects if certain products aren’t exempted, the CCIA said in a May letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which was cosigned by about 20 trade groups. For consumers, prices of “everyday tools,” like smartphones, laptops, tablets, smartwatches, connected devices, and vehicles, could increase at a time when US households are already budget-strained.
CCIA在5月份致财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）的一封信中表示，除了破坏数据中心的发展势头外，如果某些产品不被豁免，关税还可能产生广泛的连锁反应。这封信由约20个贸易团体共同签署。对于消费者而言，在美国家庭预算本已紧张的情况下，智能手机、笔记本电脑、平板电脑、智能手表、联网设备和汽车等“日常工具”的价格可能会上涨。
Tariffs could also limit technology choices for Americans by delaying new product launches, including devices featuring the latest AI technologies. And any dampened demand for popular tech risks further limiting innovation while seemingly working in lockstep with tariffs to slow AI adoption in the US, the letter warned.
信中警告称，关税还可能通过推迟新产品发布（包括搭载最新AI技术的产品）来限制美国人的技术选择。此外，对热门科技产品需求的任何抑制，都有可能进一步限制创新，同时似乎与关税协同作用，减缓人工智能在美国的普及。
“Consumer devices are the primary interface through which Americans access AI-powered tools. AI only delivers on its promise when people can actually use it—and tariffs that price consumers out of the device market would slow AI adoption at the very moment the United States is positioned to lead,” the letter said.
信中写道：“消费电子设备是美国人使用人工智能工具的主要界面。只有当人们真正能够使用它时，人工智能才能兑现其承诺——而将消费者挤出设备市场的关税，恰恰会在美国处于领先地位的关键时刻减缓人工智能的普及。”
To shield AI firms, the Trump administration is mulling some tariff relief, but sources told Politico it would likely be tied to foreign firms investing in US chip manufacturing, like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Apparently, that’s the approach Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick favors most.
为了保护人工智能公司，特朗普政府正在考虑提供一些关税减免，但消息人士告诉《政治报》，这很可能与外国公司在美国投资芯片制造（如台积电）挂钩。显然，这是商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）最青睐的做法。
Perhaps mindful of the data center development timeline—and possibly the upcoming holiday season, as Trump previously has exempted goods from tariffs to avoid consumer backlash that negatively impacted his approval ratings—the administration may impose tariffs in phases to avoid the worst impacts hitting all at once.
或许是考虑到数据中心的开发时间表，也可能是考虑到即将到来的假日季（特朗普此前曾为了避免消费者反弹影响其支持率而对部分商品免除关税），政府可能会分阶段实施关税，以避免最严重的冲击同时发生。
Industry talks with Trump turn “negative”
与特朗普的行业谈判转向“负面”
The global data center buildout already has the tech industry broadly scrambling for access to high-end semiconductors, which are forecasted to remain in short supply well into 2027. Just yesterday, Gartner forecasted that due to the shortage that’s driving price increases, global semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $1.6 trillion in 2026—much sooner than expected.
全球数据中心的建设已经让科技行业普遍争抢高端半导体，预计这种短缺将持续到2027年。就在昨天，高德纳（Gartner）预测，由于短缺推高了价格，全球半导体收入预计将在2026年达到1.6万亿美元——这比预期要快得多。
Economists expect that tariffs would only further increase prices for chips, which Politico reported could “hammer US chip designers such as Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, which rely on overseas manufacturers to produce their chips.” Tariffs could also hurt companies like Apple, which competes with foreign rivals overseas that wouldn’t have to deal with the tariffs. Chinese firms could benefit, Politico suggested, as chip suppliers potentially avoid tariffs by increasing business in China.
经济学家预计，关税只会进一步推高芯片价格。《政治报》报道称，这可能会“重创英伟达（Nvidia）和超威半导体（AMD）等美国芯片设计商，因为它们依赖海外制造商来生产芯片。”关税还可能伤害苹果（Apple）等公司，因为它们在海外面临着无需承担关税的外国竞争对手的竞争。《政治报》指出，中国企业可能会从中受益，因为芯片供应商可能会通过增加在中国的业务来规避关税。
Politico’s sources confirmed that the tech industry is so panicked by the risk of semiconductor tariffs that it “launched a lobbying blitz” to guarantee that data centers at the very least would be exempted. For the tech industry, the hope is that Trump will recognize an inherent tension at the heart of his semiconductor tariffs plan: Taxing data centers on chips during the key time they need to acquire as many as possible to scale AI infrastructure will not increase demand for chips produced domestically for a simple reason.
《政治报》的消息来源证实，科技行业对半导体关税的风险感到极度恐慌，以至于“发动了游说攻势”，以确保数据中心至少能获得豁免。对于科技行业来说，他们希望特朗普能认识到其半导体关税计划核心存在的一种内在矛盾：在数据中心需要尽可能多地获取芯片以扩展人工智能基础设施的关键时期对其征税，并不会增加对国产芯片的需求，原因很简单。
Domestic chip plants take years to build, and the US can’t rush that timeline, so firms will remain heavily dependent on importing semiconductors. As a detailed report from The Next Web summarized the problem: “Taxing the imports in the meantime raises the cost of the thing the administration also says it wants, which is American AI infrastructure at scale. There is no version of the timeline in which domestic supply arrives before the buildout needs the chips.”
国内芯片工厂需要数年时间才能建成，美国无法加快这一进度，因此企业仍将严重依赖进口半导体。《The Next Web》的一份详细报告总结了这一问题：“在此期间对进口产品征税，只会增加政府声称想要的东西的成本，即大规模的美国人工智能基础设施。在任何时间表版本中，国内供应都不可能在建设需要芯片之前到位。”
“This may be the single dumbest way imaginable to pursue American dominance in AI,” said one tech official who, Politico reported, is from a major industry group and also served in the first Trump administration. “It’s like kneecapping yourself at the starting line.”
“这可能是追求美国人工智能主导地位所能想象到的最愚蠢的方式，”一位科技界官员表示。据《政治报》报道，此人来自一个大型行业组织，也曾在特朗普第一届政府中任职。“这就像是在起跑线上就打断自己的膝盖。”
However, even though industry representatives and lobbyists have met with Trump officials “with increasing frequency since the start of summer,” sources suggested that this time, the tech industry may not get the exemptions that they’re seeking. The talks have recently “trended in a negative direction,” sources told Politico.
然而，尽管行业代表和游说者“自夏季开始以来与特朗普政府官员的会面频率越来越高”，但消息人士暗示，这一次科技行业可能无法获得他们寻求的豁免。消息人士告诉《政治报》，谈判最近“朝着负面方向发展”。