Is Russia’s rival to Starlink failing? Here’s what we know.

俄罗斯的“星链”竞争对手正在失败吗？我们目前了解到的情况。

Russia’s attempt to replicate SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network seems to be moving as slowly as the front lines in eastern Ukraine. The Rassvet program, often billed as Russia’s answer to Starlink, started launching its first operational satellites earlier this year. Two launches, one in March and a second in July, have delivered 32 Rassvet satellites to low-Earth orbit, some 10 percent of the roughly 300 Rassvet spacecraft Russia aims to put into orbit by the end of next year to provide connectivity for military and civilian users. The company in charge of Rassvet, Bureau 1440, wants to deploy 924 satellites by 2035. 俄罗斯试图复制 SpaceX 星链（Starlink）卫星网络的尝试，进展似乎和乌克兰东部的前线一样缓慢。Rassvet 项目常被宣传为俄罗斯对标星链的方案，该项目于今年早些时候开始发射首批运行卫星。通过 3 月和 7 月的两次发射，已有 32 颗 Rassvet 卫星进入近地轨道。这仅占俄罗斯计划在明年年底前送入轨道以供军事和民用连接的约 300 颗卫星的 10%。负责 Rassvet 项目的 1440 局（Bureau 1440）计划在 2035 年前部署 924 颗卫星。

But none of the 32 satellites launched so far have reached the 500-mile (800-kilometer) orbit they were designed to operate in. The rockets that launched the first two batches of Rassvets released the satellites much closer to Earth, and the satellites were expected to use their own plasma engines to raise their orbits over the few months. The highest altitude achieved by the Rassvet satellites so far is a little more than 300 miles (500 kilometers). Twelve of the 16 Rassvet satellites from the first launch in March have settled into orbits at this altitude, according to an assessment released Monday by the Institute for the Study of War. 然而，迄今为止发射的 32 颗卫星中，没有一颗达到其设计的 500 英里（800 公里）运行轨道。负责发射前两批 Rassvet 卫星的火箭将卫星释放点设置在离地球更近的地方，原本预计卫星会利用自身的等离子发动机在随后的几个月内提升轨道。目前 Rassvet 卫星达到的最高高度仅略高于 300 英里（500 公里）。根据战争研究所（Institute for the Study of War）周一发布的评估报告，3 月份首批发射的 16 颗卫星中，有 12 颗已稳定在这一高度。

A chart published by Jonathan McDowell, an independent tracker of global launch and satellite activity, indicates one more Rassvet satellite may soon climb above 300 miles. One Rassvet satellite from the March launch never made any significant maneuvers and reentered the atmosphere in June. The remaining two satellites have not raised their altitude in the last two months, an indication that they, too, may be experiencing problems. 全球发射与卫星活动独立追踪者乔纳森·麦克道尔（Jonathan McDowell）发布的一张图表显示，可能还有一颗 Rassvet 卫星很快会爬升至 300 英里以上。3 月份发射的一颗 Rassvet 卫星从未进行过任何重大机动，并于 6 月坠入大气层。其余两颗卫星在过去两个月内没有提升高度，这表明它们可能也遇到了问题。

Some satellites in the second batch of Rassvets also show signs of trouble. Two of them never maneuvered after launch in July and appear to be heading for reentry, according to Anatoly Zak, a journalist and editor of RussianSpaceWeb.com. Eleven of the 16 satellites launched in July were “noticeably climbing” by early August, Zak reported. Three more appeared to stop maneuvering after initial attempts to raise their orbits. 第二批 Rassvet 卫星中的一些也显示出故障迹象。据 RussianSpaceWeb.com 的记者兼编辑阿纳托利·扎克（Anatoly Zak）称，其中两颗卫星在 7 月发射后从未进行过机动，似乎正准备重返大气层。扎克报道称，7 月发射的 16 颗卫星中，有 11 颗在 8 月初“明显在爬升”。另有 3 颗在尝试提升轨道后似乎停止了机动。

Too soon to know

现在下结论还为时过早

What are we to make of all this? What we can say for sure is that at least three of the first 32 Rassvet satellites likely suffered outright failures. Some technical anomalies were expected. About 5 percent of SpaceX’s first batch of Starlinks failed almost immediately after launch. Over time, this group of 60 Starlink prototypes suffered a failure rate of about 13 percent, according to McDowell. With more experience, SpaceX’s next 420 Starlink satellites had a failure rate of about 3 percent. SpaceX’s current generation of Starlink Version 2 satellites has a failure rate of about 0.01 percent, according to McDowell’s tabulations. 我们该如何看待这一切？可以肯定的是，首批 32 颗 Rassvet 卫星中至少有 3 颗可能彻底失败了。出现一些技术异常是在预料之中的。SpaceX 的第一批星链卫星中，约有 5% 在发射后几乎立即失效。据麦克道尔统计，随着时间的推移，这 60 颗星链原型机的故障率约为 13%。随着经验的积累，SpaceX 后续 420 颗星链卫星的故障率降至约 3%。根据麦克道尔的计算，SpaceX 当前一代星链 Version 2 卫星的故障率约为 0.01%。

The US military’s Space Development Agency is fielding its own constellation of data relay satellites for applications in missile targeting and command and control. Some of the agency’s first 42 operational satellites encountered thermal and propulsion problems after launching last year, and they have taken longer than anticipated to raise their orbits. In its assessment on Monday, the Institute for the Study of War wrote that the second batch of Rassvet satellites “appears to have failed to reach intended operational altitudes.” 美国军方的太空发展局（Space Development Agency）正在部署自己的数据中继卫星星座，用于导弹瞄准和指挥控制。该机构去年发射的首批 42 颗运行卫星中，有一些在发射后遇到了热控和推进问题，导致它们提升轨道的时间比预期的要长。战争研究所在周一的评估中写道，第二批 Rassvet 卫星“似乎未能达到预期的运行高度”。

Zero Rassvets have reached 500 miles, and none of the second group have climbed above 300 miles, whereas much of the first cluster seems to have settled into stable orbits. However, there’s a lot we don’t know. Perhaps, for untold reasons, Russian officials decided to abandon plans to orbit the Rassvet satellites at 500 miles. Starlink satellites, after all, fly closer to 300 miles. This would put the Rassvet satellites closer to users on the ground, which comes with performance benefits. But there’s a trade-off in that lower-altitude constellations require more satellites for seamless global coverage. 目前没有一颗 Rassvet 卫星达到 500 英里高度，第二批卫星中也没有一颗爬升至 300 英里以上，而第一批卫星中的大部分似乎已稳定在轨道上。然而，我们还有很多未知之处。也许出于某种未公开的原因，俄罗斯官员决定放弃将 Rassvet 卫星置于 500 英里轨道的计划。毕竟，星链卫星的飞行高度更接近 300 英里。这会使 Rassvet 卫星更靠近地面用户，从而带来性能优势。但代价是，低轨道星座需要更多的卫星才能实现无缝的全球覆盖。

Also, networks like Starlink, Rassvet, and China’s Guowang and Qianfan fly their satellites in numerous orbital planes, or pathways. Russian ground teams may be intentionally keeping some of the Rassvet satellites at lower altitudes to allow their orbital planes to drift over a period of many months before eventually lining up with final pathways. 此外，像星链、Rassvet 以及中国的“国网”和“千帆”等网络，其卫星都在众多的轨道平面或路径上运行。俄罗斯地面团队可能是有意将部分 Rassvet 卫星保持在较低高度，以便让它们的轨道平面在数月内漂移，最终与最终路径对齐。

What we do know is that putting a megaconstellation into orbit is hard to do. At best, Russia’s entire satellite manufacturing sector has produced just a few dozen spacecraft per year since the fall of the Soviet Union. “It turned out we weren’t ready for this,” Yuri Borisov, the former head of Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, said in an interview in 2023. 我们所知道的是，将巨型星座送入轨道是一项艰巨的任务。自苏联解体以来，俄罗斯整个卫星制造业每年最多只能生产几十颗航天器。俄罗斯航天局（Roscosmos）前局长尤里·鲍里索夫（Yuri Borisov）在 2023 年的一次采访中表示：“事实证明，我们还没有为此做好准备。”

Russian forces are clamoring for Rassvet after SpaceX cut off access in February to the Starlink network by unregistered user terminals in Ukraine, circumventing Russia’s illicit use of satellite communications for military operations. Rassvet had been in the works for years, but the timing of the first Rassvet launch the following month offered Russian military commanders hope of soon regaining access to ubiquitous satellite broadband through a domestic network. It’s not all that surprising that those hopes failed to materialize. 在 SpaceX 于 2 月切断了乌克兰境内未注册用户终端对星链网络的访问，从而规避了俄罗斯非法利用卫星通信进行军事行动后，俄军对 Rassvet 的需求变得十分迫切。Rassvet 项目已经筹备多年，但次月进行的首次发射让俄罗斯军事指挥官们看到了希望，即通过国内网络重新获得无处不在的卫星宽带接入。这些希望未能实现，其实并不令人意外。

Russia’s satellite industry has long suffered from chronic underfunding, corruption, production bottlenecks, and reliability problems. Russia’s war in Ukraine has brought on new threats, from Ukrainian cyber, drone, and missile attacks on space industry infrastructure to personnel and funding redirected from the Russian space program to support the war effort. The 12 Rassvet satellites currently flying at 300 miles are lined up in a formation to bring them over Ukraine twice per day for communication windows of up to 90 minutes. “The existing Rassvet satellite constellation still presents a threat to Ukraine as it may allow Russian forces to conduct more prec… 俄罗斯卫星工业长期以来一直饱受资金不足、腐败、生产瓶颈和可靠性问题的困扰。俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争带来了新的威胁，从乌克兰对航天工业基础设施的网络、无人机和导弹攻击，到俄罗斯航天计划的人员和资金被挪用以支持战争。目前在 300 英里高度飞行的 12 颗 Rassvet 卫星正排成阵列，每天两次飞越乌克兰上空，提供长达 90 分钟的通信窗口。“现有的 Rassvet 卫星星座仍然对乌克兰构成威胁，因为它可能使俄罗斯军队能够进行更精……”