Supreme Court urged to let states regulate sports bets on prediction markets
Supreme Court urged to let states regulate sports bets on prediction markets
最高法院被敦促允许各州监管预测市场上的体育博彩
New Jersey yesterday asked the Supreme Court to rule on whether states can regulate sports betting on prediction markets such as Kalshi. “Companies like Kalshi claim to offer legal sports betting in all 50 states, but they refuse to follow the gambling laws of any state,” New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport said in a press release announcing the lawsuit. 新泽西州昨日请求最高法院裁定各州是否有权监管像 Kalshi 这类预测市场上的体育博彩。“像 Kalshi 这样的公司声称在全美 50 个州提供合法的体育博彩，但它们拒绝遵守任何州的博彩法律，”新泽西州总检察长詹妮弗·达文波特（Jennifer Davenport）在宣布诉讼的新闻稿中表示。
In April, the US Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit ruled that New Jersey cannot regulate sports bets on prediction markets. The court determined that sports-related event contracts meet the legal definition of “swaps,” giving the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction. 今年 4 月，美国第三巡回上诉法院裁定，新泽西州无权监管预测市场上的体育博彩。法院认定，与体育赛事相关的合约符合法律对“掉期”（swaps）的定义，从而赋予了美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）排他性的管辖权。
New Jersey’s petition to the Supreme Court said, “The issue is one of tremendous practical and legal consequence: Kalshi seeks to federalize the multi-billion-dollar sports betting industry at the expense of every state sports gaming law. And the decision [by the 3rd Circuit] is badly mistaken.” 新泽西州向最高法院提交的请愿书称：“这是一个具有巨大现实和法律后果的问题：Kalshi 试图将价值数十亿美元的体育博彩行业联邦化，而代价是牺牲各州的体育博彩法律。而且（第三巡回法院的）裁决是极其错误的。”
New Jersey’s petition to the Supreme Court came about a week after the 9th Circuit appeals court ruled that Nevada can stop Kalshi from allowing sports bets. Unlike the 3rd Circuit, the 9th Circuit judges determined that sports betting labeled as swaps is just gambling with a different name. The split between circuits “has tremendous importance, as it will determine whether a multi-billion-dollar gaming industry can suddenly operate free from state sports-gaming laws,” New Jersey’s petition said. 在新泽西州向最高法院提交请愿书约一周前，第九巡回上诉法院裁定内华达州有权阻止 Kalshi 提供体育博彩。与第三巡回法院不同，第九巡回法院的法官认定，被贴上“掉期”标签的体育博彩本质上就是换了个名字的赌博。新泽西州的请愿书指出，巡回法院之间的分歧“意义重大，因为它将决定一个价值数十亿美元的博彩行业是否可以突然摆脱各州体育博彩法律的约束而运营。”
Circuit split raised odds of Supreme Court taking case
巡回法院分歧增加了最高法院受理此案的可能性
The circuit split dramatically raised the odds that the Supreme Court will step in and determine who’s right, although Kalshi reportedly said it won’t allow bets on the case. Davenport’s office said New Jersey’s petition asks the Supreme Court “to hear a question that divided courts nationwide: whether prediction markets can offer sports wagers without following state sports-gambling laws.” 巡回法院之间的分歧极大地增加了最高法院介入并裁定谁是谁非的可能性，尽管据报道 Kalshi 表示不会允许针对此案进行下注。达文波特的办公室表示，新泽西州的请愿书请求最高法院“审理一个在全国法院中存在分歧的问题：预测市场是否可以在不遵守各州体育博彩法律的情况下提供体育投注。”
“Litigation regarding these questions has erupted across at least 20 states, with dozens of active suits pending and the gambling laws of several states currently enjoined by the federal courts,” Davenport’s office said. “This is the first certiorari petition filed with the US Supreme Court regarding the legality of this business model—of offering sports wagers self-certified by Kalshi with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) without following state laws.” “关于这些问题的诉讼已在至少 20 个州爆发，目前有数十起案件正在审理中，多个州的博彩法律目前被联邦法院禁止执行，”达文波特办公室表示。“这是首个提交给美国最高法院的调卷令申请，涉及这种商业模式的合法性——即在不遵守州法律的情况下，提供由 Kalshi 向商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）自我认证的体育投注。”
New Jersey regulates gambling and prohibits betting on college sports entirely but hasn’t been able to enforce its laws against Kalshi. New Jersey’s petition asked the Supreme Court to determine “whether the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act preempted States from regulating sports bets that occur within their jurisdictions if those bets are offered on markets registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.” 新泽西州对博彩业进行监管，并完全禁止对大学体育赛事进行投注，但一直无法对 Kalshi 执行其法律。新泽西州的请愿书请求最高法院裁定“2010 年《多德-弗兰克华尔街改革与消费者保护法》是否剥夺了各州监管其管辖范围内体育博彩的权力，如果这些博彩是在向商品期货交易委员会注册的市场中提供的。”
New Jersey’s petition said that “if Kalshi is right that it can offer sports bets on federal exchanges irrespective of state law, companies can disregard all state sports-gambling statutes with ease, so long as they register with the CFTC.” New Jersey said the 3rd Circuit decision is “profoundly wrong.” 新泽西州的请愿书称，“如果 Kalshi 的观点正确，即它可以在不顾州法律的情况下在联邦交易所提供体育博彩，那么公司只要在 CFTC 注册，就可以轻松无视所有州的体育博彩法规。”新泽西州称第三巡回法院的裁决是“极其错误的”。
Defining sports bets as swaps
将体育博彩定义为“掉期”
The more specific legal question is whether the US law’s definition of a swap includes sports bets. The Dodd-Frank Act amended the Commodity Exchange Act to give the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over swaps and defined “swap” as “any agreement, contract, or transaction… that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery… that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.” 更具体的法律问题是，美国法律对“掉期”的定义是否包含体育博彩。《多德-弗兰克法案》修订了《商品交易法》，赋予了 CFTC 对掉期的排他性管辖权，并将“掉期”定义为“任何协议、合约或交易……提供任何购买、销售、支付或交付……且取决于与潜在金融、经济或商业后果相关的事件或偶然事件的发生、不发生或发生程度。”
Judges have come to different conclusions about whether athletic contests are events with potential financial, economic, or commercial consequences. Third Circuit judges ruled that “the outcome of a sports event certainly can be associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence,” with “numerous affected stakeholders, including sponsors, advertisers, television networks, franchises, and local and national communities.” 法官们对于体育竞赛是否属于具有潜在金融、经济或商业后果的事件得出了不同的结论。第三巡回法院的法官裁定，“体育赛事的结果当然可以与潜在的金融、经济或商业后果相关联”，因为涉及“众多受影响的利益相关者，包括赞助商、广告商、电视网络、特许经营商以及地方和全国社区。”
The Trump administration has backed Kalshi in the company’s fights against states, and the CFTC has filed lawsuits itself against states to block them from regulating prediction markets. Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to Kalshi and Polymarket, and his venture capital firm has invested in Polymarket. 特朗普政府曾在 Kalshi 与各州的斗争中支持该公司，CFTC 本身也曾对各州提起诉讼，以阻止它们监管预测市场。小唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump Jr.）是 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的顾问，他的风险投资公司也投资了 Polymarket。
While Trump has had plenty of success at the current Supreme Court, the court’s conservative majority isn’t necessarily a guarantee that states will lose this battle. After all, the three 9th Circuit judges who unanimously ruled against Kalshi were all appointed by Trump. 尽管特朗普在当前的最高法院中取得了许多成功，但法院的保守派多数席位并不一定保证各州会输掉这场战斗。毕竟，那三位一致裁定反对 Kalshi 的第九巡回法院法官都是由特朗普任命的。
“Placing sports bets, even when called by another name, is still gambling,” 9th Circuit Judge Ryan Nelson wrote. Judge Kenneth Lee said the outcome of a typical sports game is not an “event” with financial, economic, or commercial consequences as conceived in US law governing swap contracts. “进行体育博彩，即使换个名字，依然是赌博，”第九巡回法院法官瑞安·尼尔森（Ryan Nelson）写道。肯尼斯·李（Kenneth Lee）法官表示，典型体育比赛的结果并不是美国掉期合约法律所构想的那种具有金融、经济或商业后果的“事件”。
“Few people would describe, say, the New York Mets’ latest loss of a game as an ‘event.’… perhaps in an uber-technical sense a Mets’ loss could have marginal economic impact as some fans guzzle more beer to drown away their sorrows. But it seems somewhat fanciful to say that the outcome of a single game in a 162-game season is likely ‘associated’ with a ‘financial, economic, or commercial consequence’ that one would expect in a swap contract,” Lee wrote. “很少有人会把纽约大都会队最近输掉的一场比赛描述为一件‘事件’……也许在极度技术性的意义上，大都会队的失利可能会产生微小的经济影响，因为一些球迷会喝更多的啤酒来消愁。但如果说 162 场比赛中单场比赛的结果很可能与掉期合约中预期的‘金融、经济或商业后果’相关联，这似乎有些异想天开，”李法官写道。
NJ: Congress did not federalize gambling regulation
新泽西州：国会并未将博彩监管联邦化
New Jersey’s petition to the Supreme Court cited the 9th Circuit’s discussion of swaps and said that prohibiting state regulation of sports bets on prediction markets would conflict with other US laws on the balance of power between the federal government and states. “Kalshi argues that in granting the CFTC ‘exclusive jurisdiction’ over 新泽西州向最高法院提交的请愿书引用了第九巡回法院关于掉期的讨论，并表示禁止各州对预测市场上的体育博彩进行监管，将与美国关于联邦政府与各州之间权力平衡的其他法律相冲突。“Kalshi 辩称，在授予 CFTC 对……的‘排他性管辖权’时……”