Agriculture relies on fossil fuels. It’s costing us.
Agriculture relies on fossil fuels. It’s costing us.
农业依赖化石燃料，代价正在显现。
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY If you’ve had to fill up your vehicle’s gas tank or buy a plane ticket lately, you’ve probably felt the effects of rising fossil-fuel prices. But farmers buying fertilizer for their crops are especially aware of just how far the ripple effects of the conflict in Iran have spread. Fertilizer prices have been on a roller coaster this year, kicked off in part by trade disruptions and high prices for natural gas, a key ingredient in fertilizer production. Let’s take a closer look at why conventional fertilizer prices are so sky-high, and how a few more climate-friendly alternatives could bring farmers some relief.
执行摘要： 如果你最近加过油或买过机票，你可能已经感受到了化石燃料价格上涨带来的影响。但对于购买农作物肥料的农民来说，他们对伊朗冲突所引发的连锁反应感受尤为深刻。今年化肥价格经历了过山车般的波动，部分原因是贸易中断以及作为化肥生产关键原料的天然气价格高企。让我们深入探讨一下为何传统化肥价格如此高昂，以及一些更环保的替代方案如何能为农民减轻负担。
As fossil-fuel prices go up, nearly all industries are affected, since most of our economy relies on these fuels to move goods and people around. But fertilizer is even more intertwined with these fluctuations, because natural gas is used as both an energy source and a chemical input in the production of ammonia, a key fertilizer ingredient. So as natural-gas prices have spiked in recent months because of the war in Iran, fertilizer prices have followed. (It’s worth briefly noting here that fertilizer production is also a major source of greenhouse-gas emissions, accounting for about 2% of the global total.)
随着化石燃料价格上涨，几乎所有行业都受到波及，因为我们大部分经济活动都依赖这些燃料来运输货物和人员。但化肥与这些波动联系更为紧密，因为天然气既是能源，也是生产氨（化肥的关键成分）的化学原料。因此，随着近几个月因伊朗战争导致天然气价格飙升，化肥价格也随之水涨船高。（值得一提的是，化肥生产也是温室气体排放的主要来源，约占全球总量的 2%。）
Fertilizer trade is being directly affected as well, since about one-third of global seaborne trade in fertilizers passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed to commercial traffic because of the conflict. Access to fertilizer could get worse for some of the poorest countries around the world because of the strait’s closure, according to a report from the World Bank. While the US largely meets demand for nitrogen fertilizers with domestic production, some imports do come from the Persian Gulf.
化肥贸易也受到直接影响，因为全球约三分之一的海运化肥贸易经过霍尔木兹海峡，而该海峡因冲突已实际上对商业交通关闭。根据世界银行的一份报告，由于海峡关闭，世界上一些最贫穷国家获取化肥的渠道可能会进一步恶化。虽然美国主要通过国内生产满足氮肥需求，但仍有部分进口来自波斯湾。
At one point in April, the price of urea (the most commonly applied fertilizer) climbed above $850 per metric ton. That’s 80% higher than it was before the conflict and the highest level since 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting conflict caused fertilizer costs to hit record highs. Prices have come down significantly, but forecasts remain uncertain.
4 月份，尿素（最常用的肥料）价格一度攀升至每公吨 850 美元以上。这比冲突前高出 80%，也是自 2022 年以来的最高水平，当时俄罗斯入侵乌克兰及其引发的冲突导致化肥成本创下历史新高。目前价格已大幅回落，但未来走势仍不确定。
“There’s just this out-of-control supply chain that’s a lot more volatile than it’s ever been,” says Travis Frey, chief technology officer of Pivot Bio, a company making fertilizer with genetically edited microbes. (For more on these microbes, how they work, and what research is still needed, check out my latest story here.) Pivot says its products are cost-competitive with chemical fertilizers today. And because they don’t use natural gas as an input, they aren’t subject to the same price spikes.
“供应链已经失控，波动性比以往任何时候都要大，”Pivot Bio 的首席技术官 Travis Frey 说道。该公司利用基因编辑微生物生产肥料。（关于这些微生物、它们的工作原理以及仍需进行的研究，请参阅我最新的报道。）Pivot 表示，其产品目前在成本上与化学肥料具有竞争力。而且由于它们不使用天然气作为原料，因此不会受到同样的价格飙升影响。
When the war in Iran started, Pivot increased the volume it planned to produce, dropped prices, and allowed farmers to lock in prices for three years, Frey says. That could be a major help for those farmers, because high prices could be here to stay for a while. Some fertilizer prices could remain high through at least 2028, according to a report from CoBank, one of the largest banks for the agriculture industry in the US. That’s partly because the war has caused long-lasting damage: 31 ammonia plants in the Middle East have been affected or shut down completely. That’s on top of 20 ammonia plants that have been damaged in Russia in recent years.
Frey 表示，伊朗战争爆发时，Pivot 增加了计划产量，降低了价格，并允许农民锁定三年的价格。这对那些农民来说可能是一个巨大的帮助，因为高价可能会持续一段时间。美国最大的农业银行之一 CoBank 的一份报告显示，一些化肥价格可能至少会持续高位到 2028 年。部分原因是战争造成了持久的破坏：中东地区有 31 家氨工厂受到影响或完全关闭。此外，近年来俄罗斯还有 20 家氨工厂遭到破坏。
Ongoing high prices can be extremely challenging for farmers. “The fertilizer price spikes, and because farmers have paper-thin margins, this is a real problem,” says Tim Schnabel, founder and CEO of Switch Bioworks, another company working on advanced microbe fertilizers. Higher costs can help push food prices higher, causing all of us to pay more at the grocery store. (It’s not just fertilizer, by the way. Farmers are also getting hit with wild diesel prices this year.) As long as we’re relying on fertilizers made with fossil fuels, food prices will be tied up with energy prices.
持续的高价对农民来说极具挑战性。“化肥价格飙升，而农民的利润微薄，这是一个真正的问题，”另一家致力于先进微生物肥料的公司 Switch Bioworks 的创始人兼首席执行官 Tim Schnabel 说。更高的成本会推高食品价格，导致我们所有人在杂货店都要支付更多费用。（顺便说一句，不仅仅是化肥。今年农民还受到柴油价格剧烈波动的冲击。）只要我们继续依赖化石燃料生产的肥料，食品价格就将与能源价格挂钩。
Switch and Pivot are among the companies looking to make alternative fertilizers that use microbes to provide nitrogen to plants. There’s a limit to how much synthetic fertilizers these products can actually replace: Depending on the crop and conditions, Pivot says, its products can replace about 25% of synthetic fertilizer today, and the company hopes to reach 40% to 50% of the total. But these alternatives could be a start to untangling fossil fuels and food. “We can’t keep doing it like this,” Switch’s Schnabel says. “There’s no way we can build a society where the basis of the food chain depends on fossil fuels.”
Switch 和 Pivot 等公司正致力于开发替代肥料，利用微生物为植物提供氮。这些产品能替代的合成肥料量是有限的：Pivot 表示，根据作物和条件的不同，其产品目前可以替代约 25% 的合成肥料，公司希望最终能达到 40% 到 50%。但这些替代方案可能是将化石燃料与食品脱钩的开端。“我们不能再这样下去了，”Switch 的 Schnabel 说。“我们不可能建立一个食物链基础依赖于化石燃料的社会。”