There May Not Be an iPhone 18 This Year
There May Not Be an iPhone 18 This Year
今年可能不会有 iPhone 18
Every year around this time, Apple announces new iPhones. The products go on sale soon after, usually ranging from a base model to more premium and more expensive Pro models. But this year will likely be different—not just because the company has a brand-new CEO. 每年这个时候，苹果公司都会发布新款 iPhone。产品通常在发布后不久上市，涵盖从基础款到更高端、更昂贵的 Pro 系列机型。但今年情况可能会有所不同——这不仅仅是因为公司迎来了一位全新的首席执行官。
Apple’s iPhone event will be held on September 9 at 10 am Pacific (1 pm Eastern), announced last week with the title “Surprise and Shine!” If you tune into the livestream, expect the announcement of an iPhone 18 Pro, 18 Pro Max, and, if all the rumors and widely held analyst expectations are true, the first look at an Apple foldable device. 苹果的 iPhone 发布会将于太平洋时间 9 月 9 日上午 10 点（东部时间下午 1 点）举行，上周发布会的主题定为“Surprise and Shine!”（惊喜与闪耀！）。如果你收看直播，预计将会看到 iPhone 18 Pro 和 18 Pro Max 的发布；如果所有的传闻和分析师的普遍预期属实，我们还将首次见到苹果的可折叠设备。
Based on leaks and the ongoing tech rumor mill and its decent track record for figuring these things out, Apple is expected to prioritize its more expensive, premium devices this year and hold off on announcing its base model iPhone 18. That cheaper model is rumored to launch in the spring of 2027, potentially alongside an iPhone 18e and maybe a second-generation iPhone Air. 根据泄露的消息、持续不断的科技传闻以及其在预测此类事件方面不错的记录，苹果今年预计将优先考虑其更昂贵的高端设备，并推迟发布基础款 iPhone 18。传闻称这款更便宜的机型将于 2027 年春季发布，届时可能还会一同推出 iPhone 18e，或许还有第二代 iPhone Air。
Why the drastic change in strategy? It may be due to the ongoing memory shortage, which has made just about everything more expensive. Apple hasn’t been spared. In June, former Apple CEO Tim Cook acknowledged that Apple would raise product prices to keep up with manufacturing costs. 为什么会有如此剧烈的战略调整？这可能是由于持续的内存短缺，导致几乎所有产品的成本都变高了。苹果也未能幸免。今年 6 月，前苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克承认，苹果将提高产品价格以应对制造成本的上涨。
“Our assumption is that they’re going to be launching three models in the fall, the premium side of the models of the 18 series,” says Nabila Popal, a senior director of data and analytics at IDC. “Then the mid/budget devices will be launched in the spring.” IDC 数据与分析高级总监 Nabila Popal 表示：“我们的推测是，他们将在秋季发布三款机型，即 18 系列中的高端机型。然后，中端/预算型设备将在春季发布。”
Popal says it’s a smart strategic move because Apple is aiming to spread out its revenue between a usually very strong fourth quarter and a typically much weaker spring quarter the following year. Apple’s portfolio has also expanded, and the iPhone Pro and Pro Max lineup are more enticing for people already prepared to spend the money on a new iPhone. Popal 认为这是一个明智的战略举措，因为苹果旨在将收入分散到通常表现非常强劲的第四季度，以及次年通常表现较弱的春季季度。苹果的产品组合也已扩大，对于那些已经准备好花钱购买新 iPhone 的用户来说，iPhone Pro 和 Pro Max 系列更具吸引力。
When components become more expensive, companies have three real options: Eat the costs, raise prices, or, as Apple seems to be doing, lean into it. By moving its cheaper options to a later date, Apple can drum up excitement for its bigger, better, pricier offerings. When it charges more for those, it is likely to be less off-putting than making a cheap phone even more expensive. It’s part of a “premiumization” of devices, as Popal calls it, that Apple hopes to leverage and build hype for its pricier options. 当零部件成本变高时，公司实际上只有三种选择：自行承担成本、提高价格，或者像苹果目前似乎正在做的那样，顺势而为。通过将更便宜的机型推迟发布，苹果可以为其更大、更好、更昂贵的产品造势。当这些高端机型定价更高时，消费者可能比看到廉价手机涨价更容易接受。正如 Popal 所言，这是设备“高端化”的一部分，苹果希望利用这一点为其高价产品制造热度。
Shawn DuBravac, chief economist at the Global Electronics Association, tells WIRED he is optimistic about what these kinds of rising prices ultimately mean for customers. 全球电子协会首席经济学家 Shawn DuBravac 告诉《连线》（WIRED）杂志，他对这些价格上涨最终对消费者意味着什么持乐观态度。
“Throughout the history of time, the deflationary pressures of technology have always flowed to the consumer,” DuBravac says. “I’m confident that will be the case again. It just will take some time for the markets to solidify.” In other words, new technologies launch with a high price, but manufacturing efficiencies and competition inevitably drive costs down for consumers. “纵观历史，技术的通缩压力总是会惠及消费者，”DuBravac 说，“我相信这次也会一样。只是市场需要一些时间来稳固。”换句话说，新技术在发布时价格较高，但制造效率的提升和竞争不可避免地会为消费者降低成本。
That may not be the case anytime soon for folding phones, which are seeing higher prices than ever. Samsung’s entire 2026 Galaxy Z folding smartphone range saw price increases, as did Google’s new Pixel 11 Pro Fold, and Motorola’s Razr 2026 models. Apple’s folding iPhone is rumored to cost around $2,000. 对于折叠屏手机来说，这种情况短期内可能不会发生，因为它们的价格正处于历史高位。三星 2026 年全系 Galaxy Z 折叠屏手机价格均有所上涨，谷歌新款 Pixel 11 Pro Fold 和摩托罗拉 Razr 2026 系列也是如此。传闻苹果的折叠屏 iPhone 售价约为 2000 美元。
To help mitigate those high costs, Apple is turning to financing options and trade-in programs. In July, the company launched an iPhone leasing program that lets people pay a monthly fee to rent the newest iPhones, then swap them out when a new device releases. The program will undoubtedly help more people afford the newest devices, but ownership advocates have criticized it, saying it keeps you from truly owning and managing your device. It also fits Apple’s broader effort to turn all of its products into a subscription service. 为了缓解这些高昂的成本，苹果正转向金融方案和以旧换新计划。今年 7 月，该公司推出了 iPhone 租赁计划，允许用户每月支付费用租用最新的 iPhone，并在新设备发布时进行更换。该计划无疑将帮助更多人负担得起最新设备，但所有权倡导者批评称，这让你无法真正拥有和管理自己的设备。这也符合苹果将所有产品转化为订阅服务的更广泛战略。
“The way most consumers buy Apple phones is through financing or trade-in programs,” Popal says. “We can expect a lot more aggressive trade-ins to help cushion that.” “大多数消费者购买苹果手机的方式是通过金融分期或以旧换新计划，”Popal 说，“我们可以预期会有更多激进的以旧换新政策来缓解价格压力。”
Thanks to the memory crisis and price increases, all smartphones are getting more costly to make. Less expensive phones become less appealing for manufacturers to prioritize, and leading smartphone brands have started to see them as far less economical to produce. 由于内存危机和价格上涨，所有智能手机的制造成本都在增加。廉价手机对制造商来说不再具有优先吸引力，领先的智能手机品牌已开始认为生产这些手机的经济效益大不如前。
On the flip side, demand for refurbished devices has been climbing for a while now, with sales of used devices growing even as new phone sales slow down. More people are looking to save money or purchase more eco-friendly products. 另一方面，对翻新设备的需求已经持续攀升了一段时间，即使在新手机销量放缓的情况下，二手设备的销量仍在增长。越来越多的人希望节省开支或购买更环保的产品。
“The days of the cheap smartphone are over,” Popal says. “廉价智能手机的时代已经结束了，”Popal 说道。