Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says
Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says
联合国报告：全球变暖将突破1.5摄氏度临界点
In a strategic retreat in the fight against climate change, the United Nations has acknowledged that Earth has lost its chance to prevent some of the worst of global warming’s harms. So now the world must figure out how to get temperatures below the danger zone and back to safety, officials say. 在应对气候变化的斗争中，联合国进行了一次战略性退让，承认地球已失去避免全球变暖带来部分最严重危害的机会。官员们表示，现在世界必须设法将气温降至危险区域以下，回归安全水平。
Earth is soon going to exceed the safe temperature threshold agreed upon by the world in the 2015 Paris climate accord because of warming from the burning of coal, oil and gas, according to a bleak first-of-its-kind report issued by the United Nations Environment Programme Wednesday. 根据联合国环境规划署周三发布的一份史无前例的严峻报告，由于燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气导致的变暖，地球很快将突破2015年《巴黎协定》中全球商定的安全温度阈值。
Instead of giving up, scientists and U.N. officials recommend trying to limit excessive warming and then bring the temperature back down to the agreed-upon threshold. But it still will mean decades of increased weather-related disasters, rising seas, extinctions and melting ice and glaciers. 科学家和联合国官员建议，与其放弃，不如设法限制过度升温，随后再将气温降回商定的阈值。但这仍意味着未来几十年内，与天气相关的灾害、海平面上升、物种灭绝以及冰川融化将持续增加。
“Humanity is speeding past the limit to avoid climate catastrophe,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said. After a period of over-the-limit warming, the new strategy envisions getting back below the limit by ending fossil fuel use and developing some kind of way to suck industries’ carbon dioxide out of the air. 联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯表示：“人类正在加速冲破避免气候灾难的极限。”在经历一段超标升温期后，新战略设想通过终结化石燃料的使用，并开发某种从空气中吸收工业二氧化碳的技术，从而使气温重新回到限值以下。
“It’s a reality check. We have to live with this warmer world,” said report co-author Richard Betts, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter. “But there’s still a lot we can do to limit warming.” 报告合著者、埃克塞特大学气候科学家理查德·贝茨说：“这是一次现实的考验。我们必须适应这个变暖的世界。但我们仍有很多工作可以做，以限制升温。”
Passing the longtime warming threshold
突破长期以来的升温阈值
After the Paris climate accord, the United Nations ordered its climate science arm to study different warming limits. A goal of 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above mid-19th century temperatures became generally accepted after the scientists found dramatic impacts that affect people and the planet at 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 degrees Fahrenheit) but not at 1.5 degrees. 《巴黎协定》签署后，联合国责成其气候科学部门研究不同的升温限制。科学家们发现，气温升高2摄氏度（3.8华氏度）会对人类和地球产生巨大影响，而1.5摄氏度则不然，因此将气温控制在比19世纪中叶高出1.5摄氏度（2.7华氏度）的目标被普遍接受。
The world is now at 1.4 C (2.5 F) above pre-industrial levels, some scientists have calculated. The measure is based on a 20-year average, rather than a single year’s temperatures. Despite experts saying there’s no way to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, U.N. officials long maintained the 1.5 window was still open. Wednesday’s report finally admitted that the world will cross the 1.5 threshold “in the next few years.” 一些科学家计算得出，目前全球气温已比工业化前水平高出1.4摄氏度（2.5华氏度）。该测量基于20年平均值，而非单年气温。尽管专家们表示已无法将升温限制在1.5摄氏度以内，但联合国官员长期以来一直坚持认为1.5摄氏度的窗口依然敞开。周三的报告终于承认，世界将在“未来几年内”突破1.5摄氏度的阈值。
The report said the most optimistic scenario has warming peaking at 1.8 C (3.2 F) around mid-century if countries pursue ambitious climate goals, but that governments’ current policies should push temperatures to 2.6 C (4.7 F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100. 报告称，在最乐观的情况下，如果各国追求雄心勃勃的气候目标，升温将在本世纪中叶达到1.8摄氏度（3.2华氏度）的峰值；但按照各国目前的政策，到2100年气温将比工业化前水平高出2.6摄氏度（4.7华氏度）。
So instead of preventing warming of 1.5 degrees, now the U.N. said it wants policymakers to “prepare for and navigate a future” in which the globe crosses that limit and then corrects course and cools temperatures. 因此，联合国表示，现在的目标不再是防止升温达到1.5摄氏度，而是希望决策者“为未来做好准备并进行引导”，即在地球突破该限值后，通过纠正航向来降低气温。
The report envisions that global temperatures will pass 1.5 “within the next few years,” follow a hump-shaped path of more warming, peak, then gradually cool to below the 1.5 mark, ideally by the end of the century. The report and experts call it “overshoot.” 报告设想全球气温将在“未来几年内”超过1.5摄氏度，随后经历一段升温的驼峰式路径，达到峰值，然后逐渐冷却至1.5摄氏度以下，理想情况下是在本世纪末实现。报告和专家将其称为“超调”（overshoot）。
“Let’s be very clear, 1.5 target is still the goal. But now we need to approach it differently from above,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. 联合国环境规划署执行主任英格·安德森表示：“我们要明确一点，1.5摄氏度的目标依然是我们的目标。但现在我们需要从上方以不同的方式去接近它。”
The 1.5 limit is not “some magical climate cliff” where it’s just game over, said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, who wasn’t part of the study. “Every tenth of a degree we avoid still means less damage.” 未参与该研究的维多利亚大学气候科学家安德鲁·韦弗表示，1.5摄氏度的限值并非“某种神奇的气候悬崖”，一旦越过就意味着游戏结束。“我们每避免十分之一摄氏度的升温，就意味着减少一份损害。”
Limiting how high temperatures go past threshold is key
限制气温突破阈值的幅度是关键
It’s most important to first limit the new peak temperature and then reduce the amount of time above 1.5 degrees, Andersen said. But the world likely will be in that overshoot period for “many, many decades,” Betts said. 安德森表示，最重要的是首先限制新的峰值温度，然后减少气温高于1.5摄氏度的时间。但贝茨指出，世界很可能会在这一“超调”期内停留“许多许多个十年”。
Every five years of delay in reducing emissions adds at least a tenth of a degree to peak warming, said report co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. “If we act now we can limit overshoot,” the report said. “Not a safe world, but safer than remaining above” 1.5 degrees for the long term. 报告合著者、伦敦帝国理工学院气候科学家乔里·罗格利表示，减排每推迟五年，峰值升温就会至少增加十分之一摄氏度。报告指出：“如果我们现在采取行动，就能限制超调。虽然这并非一个安全的世界，但比长期保持在1.5摄氏度以上要安全。”
“This is among the bleakest U.N. climate reports I have read. It carries the unmistakable tone of desperation, frustration and urgency — but not resignation,” Weaver said. 韦弗说：“这是我读过的最严峻的联合国气候报告之一。它带有明显的绝望、沮丧和紧迫感，但并没有放弃。”
Adapting to a deadlier, hungrier, thirstier world
适应一个更致命、更饥饿、更干渴的世界
Governments need to increase efforts to adapt to worsening warming, which hits the poor hardest, “because some impacts simply cannot be avoided,” Andersen said. The report calls this phase “coping and containment.” 安德森表示，各国政府需要加大力度适应日益严重的变暖问题，因为这对贫困人口的打击最大，“有些影响是根本无法避免的”。报告将这一阶段称为“应对与遏制”。
During this overshoot period, more people will die or get sick because of the worsening climate change and its extreme weather, the report said. Food production will drop, people will go hungry, water shortages will worsen, economies will be hurt and species like coral will go extinct, the report said. 报告称，在这一超调期内，由于气候变化加剧及其带来的极端天气，更多人将死亡或患病。粮食产量将下降，人们将面临饥饿，水资源短缺将加剧，经济将受到损害，珊瑚等物种将走向灭绝。
Although the triggers behind the recent deadly Nepal flooding that came as part of a Himalayan glacier dislodging are complex, Betts said “unfortunately we do expect to see more of such things and this is exactly why we need to limit peak warming.” 尽管近期尼泊尔致命洪水（喜马拉雅冰川崩塌引发）背后的诱因很复杂，但贝茨表示：“不幸的是，我们确实预计会看到更多此类事件，这正是我们需要限制峰值升温的原因。”