A Year After Charlie Kirk’s Death, Turning Point Plans to Spend Big on the Midterms
A Year After Charlie Kirk’s Death, Turning Point Plans to Spend Big on the Midterms
查理·柯克去世一年后，“转折点”组织计划在期中选举中投入巨资
A year after the assassination of cofounder Charlie Kirk, Turning Point plans to pour tens of millions of dollars into the midterm elections to help Republican candidates in key congressional and gubernatorial races, according to sources familiar with the matter. 在联合创始人查理·柯克（Charlie Kirk）遇刺一年后，据知情人士透露，“转折点”（Turning Point）组织计划在期中选举中投入数千万美元，以帮助共和党候选人在关键的国会和州长竞选中获胜。
The conservative grassroots group is expected to prioritize three states in the midterms—New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada—but will also deploy full-time field staff in seven other states where Democrats could pick up seats. 该保守派基层组织预计将在期中选举中优先考虑三个州——新罕布什尔州、亚利桑那州和内华达州——但同时也会在其他七个民主党可能夺取席位的州部署全职外勤人员。
The precise amounts could change, but sources tell WIRED that Turning Point’s super PAC is looking to spend $15–$20 million in ads across the three priority states. Turning Point’s field operation spending couldn’t be learned, as it is run by a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, but it is estimated to be tens of millions more. 具体金额可能会有所变动，但消息人士告诉《连线》（WIRED）杂志，转折点的超级政治行动委员会（Super PAC）计划在这三个优先州投入 1500 万至 2000 万美元用于广告宣传。由于转折点的外勤行动由一家 501(c)(4) 非营利组织运营，其具体支出金额尚无法得知，但估计还要多出数千万美元。
The planned cash injection will pay for both a field operation as well as digital ads, and would only add to the advantage for Republicans in funding through a constellation of outside super PACs and party committees. 此次计划中的资金注入将用于外勤行动和数字广告，这将进一步扩大共和党通过一系列外部超级政治行动委员会和党内委员会所获得的资金优势。
The most closely watched race for Republicans in New Hampshire is the Senate seat vacated by the retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, where former Republican senator John Sununu is running against Democratic representative Chris Pappas to flip the seat. 共和党在新罕布什尔州最受关注的竞选是民主党人珍妮·沙欣（Jeanne Shaheen）退休后留下的参议院席位，前共和党参议员约翰·苏努努（John Sununu）正与民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯（Chris Pappas）角逐该席位，试图实现翻盘。
The New Hampshire Senate race is a crucial battleground for both parties, as many of the possible paths to Democrats taking the Senate majority require the party to keep the seat, which the Cook Political Report rates as “Lean Democrat.” 新罕布什尔州的参议院竞选是两党争夺的关键战场，因为民主党获得参议院多数席位的许多可能路径都要求该党保住这个席位，而《库克政治报告》（Cook Political Report）将其评级为“倾向民主党”。
Turning Point has also been particularly focused on the race for governor in Arizona, where Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs is running against Representative Andy Biggs, who endorsed President Donald Trump’s claims of a stolen election in 2020. 转折点组织还特别关注亚利桑那州的州长竞选，现任民主党州长凯蒂·霍布斯（Katie Hobbs）正在与众议员安迪·比格斯（Andy Biggs）竞争，后者曾支持唐纳德·特朗普总统关于 2020 年选举被窃取的说法。
These maneuvers come as Republican groups have started a massive cash injection to counter a wave of discontent from voters over the Iran war and high prices, and burgeoning Democratic momentum that has opened up the possibility of a Democrat-controlled Senate. 这些举措出台之际，共和党团体已开始大规模注入资金，以应对选民对伊朗战争和高物价的不满浪潮，以及民主党日益增长的势头——这种势头已使民主党控制参议院的可能性大增。
After facing criticism for not spending earlier, Trump’s political operation has stepped into gear recently with a $10 million ad spend in the Texas Senate race through Trump’s main super PAC, MAGA Inc. More recently, Trump’s team has used No Going Back PAC Inc, a new entity, to reserve at least $47 million in ads in six Senate races and one House race. 在因投入资金过晚而受到批评后，特朗普的政治团队近期已开始行动，通过其主要的超级政治行动委员会“MAGA Inc.”在德克萨斯州参议院竞选中投入了 1000 万美元的广告费。最近，特朗普团队又利用一个名为“No Going Back PAC Inc”的新实体，在六场参议院竞选和一场众议院竞选中预订了至少 4700 万美元的广告位。
The extent of the coordination between Trump’s operation and MAGA Inc. with outside groups like Turning Point isn’t entirely clear, but there has been extensive data sharing to coordinate on which voters to reach, one of the sources said. 其中一位消息人士称，特朗普团队和“MAGA Inc.”与转折点等外部团体之间的协调程度尚不完全清楚，但双方在确定目标选民方面进行了广泛的数据共享。
And with the midterms in November widely expected to be decided in part, the turnout, Turning Point has communicated to Trump’s orbit that a major focus of its field operation is reminding Trump supporters to actually vote on Election Day. 鉴于 11 月的期中选举普遍被认为部分取决于投票率，转折点已向特朗普的核心圈子传达，其外勤行动的一个重点是提醒特朗普的支持者在选举日当天务必去投票。
Unlike other super PACs, Turning Point has been an organization focused on presidential elections, and its midterm strategy is really an effort to build up infrastructure for the Republican ticket in 2028, the sources said. 消息人士称，与其他超级政治行动委员会不同，转折点一直是一个专注于总统选举的组织，其期中选举策略实际上是为了在 2028 年为共和党候选人建立基础设施。
The focus on New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada comes as Turning Point contends with the fact that winning those states in 2028 would offset Vice President JD Vance—or anyone else—needing to win traditional so-called blue-wall states. 该组织之所以关注新罕布什尔州、亚利桑那州和内华达州，是因为转折点意识到，在 2028 年赢得这些州，将使副总统 JD·万斯（或任何其他人）无需再依赖赢得传统的所谓“蓝墙”州。
You know what they say: The day after midterms is the first day of the presidential election. Republicans are already campaigning. 俗话说得好：期中选举后的第一天，就是总统大选的第一天。共和党人已经在为此竞选了。
A Rock and a Hard Place / 进退两难
With Trump’s approval rating now consistently at or under 40 percent, a historically dangerous level for a midterm election, Republicans have faced a dilemma over participating in the Republican “midterm convention” this week in Texas. 由于特朗普的支持率目前持续在 40% 或以下——这对期中选举而言是一个历史上危险的水平——共和党人在是否参加本周在德克萨斯州举行的共和党“期中大会”上陷入了困境。
While party conventions are typically only held in presidential election years, Trump and other officials are set to headline the event in an effort to boost vulnerable Republicans like Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton and mobilize the base. 虽然党代会通常只在总统选举年举行，但特朗普和其他官员仍将作为主讲人出席此次活动，旨在提振德克萨斯州参议院候选人肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）等处于弱势的共和党人，并动员选民基础。
But by appearing with the president, Republicans in close races run the risk of being associated too closely with the political baggage of the Iran war as well as the higher gas and grocery prices that have resulted from the conflict. 但通过与总统共同露面，那些选情胶着的共和党人面临着被过度贴上伊朗战争政治包袱，以及冲突导致的汽油和食品价格上涨等负面标签的风险。
As a way to partially offset the disincentives, the Republican National Committee has placed a heavy emphasis on using the convention to help fundraise on behalf of candidates who travel to Dallas, two Republican strategist sources tell Inner Loop. 据两位共和党战略家向《Inner Loop》透露，为了部分抵消这些负面影响，共和党全国委员会（RNC）非常重视利用此次大会，为前往达拉斯的候选人进行筹款。
On September 9, Trump will appear at what has been billed as a special RNC event. To attend a roundtable with Trump, donors will have to pay $250,000 per person. A photo opportunity with the president is $88,600 per photo. 9 月 9 日，特朗普将出席一场被称为 RNC 特别活动的会议。若要参加与特朗普的圆桌会议，捐赠者每人需支付 25 万美元。与总统合影的机会则为每张照片 8.86 万美元。
On September 10, Vance will do his own RNC roundtable, where seats cost $75,000 per person. A photo with the vice president will cost $35,000 per photo, according to invitations sent out to potential donors. The Wall Street Journal earlier reported on the invitations. 9 月 10 日，万斯将举行自己的 RNC 圆桌会议，每人入场费为 7.5 万美元。根据发给潜在捐赠者的邀请函，与副总统合影的价格为每张 3.5 万美元。《华尔街日报》此前曾报道过这些邀请函。
The contribution costs are lower than normal, which appears designed to get more donors and raise higher amounts through volume. For instance, although the setting is different, getting face time with Trump at a MAGA Inc. fundraiser still costs $1 million per seat. 这些捐款金额低于往常，这似乎是为了吸引更多捐赠者，并通过数量优势筹集更多资金。例如，尽管场合不同，但在“MAGA Inc.”的筹款活动中，与特朗普面对面交流的席位费仍高达 100 万美元。
This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here. 这是雨果·洛厄尔（Hugo Lowell）的《Inner Loop》通讯。点击此处阅读往期通讯。