Jensen Huang explains why Nvidia will grow an astounding 70% next year
Jensen Huang explains why Nvidia will grow an astounding 70% next year
黄仁勋解释为何英伟达明年将实现惊人的 70% 增长
Founder, CEO, and tireless Nvidia hype man Jensen Huang told attendees at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology conference on Thursday why his company’s AI domination — and revenues — will continue its record-breaking growth streak through the end of next year. He can see the future. 英伟达创始人、首席执行官兼不知疲倦的“头号推销员”黄仁勋周四在高盛 Communacopia + 技术大会上向与会者解释了为何其公司在人工智能领域的统治地位——以及营收——将持续保持破纪录的增长势头，直至明年年底。他表示，他能预见未来。
There’s been endless hand-wringing over whether Nvidia’s party will end as it faces increasing competition for GPUs and AI chips from all directions: the hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, each building their own) and the AI labs (Anthropic and OpenAI, which are building their own), as well as from newly public competitor Cerebras and startups such as Etched. 人们一直在担忧英伟达的盛宴是否会结束，因为它正面临来自四面八方的 GPU 和 AI 芯片竞争：超大规模云服务商（亚马逊、微软和谷歌，都在构建自己的芯片）、AI 实验室（Anthropic 和 OpenAI，也在构建自己的芯片），以及新上市的竞争对手 Cerebras 和 Etched 等初创公司。
“Most people think Nvidia builds a chip. I mean, you need airplanes to ship what we build,” Huang said, adding that the company continues to battle a perception from its early days. Nvidia invented the GPU, which back then were largely sold to consumers to improve PC gaming. “One GPU now is not $399. It’s $8.5 million dollars. That’s one GPU, all connected with NVLink, 2 million parts, right? 250,000 kilowatts. That’s a GPU, and we ship thousands of them.” “大多数人认为英伟达只是制造芯片。但我的意思是，你需要用飞机来运输我们制造的产品，”黄仁勋说道。他补充说，公司仍在努力扭转人们对其早期的刻板印象。英伟达发明了 GPU，当时主要卖给消费者以提升 PC 游戏体验。“现在的 GPU 不再是 399 美元了。它是 850 万美元。那是一个通过 NVLink 连接的 GPU，包含 200 万个零件，对吧？功率达 25 万千瓦。这就是现在的 GPU，而我们出货量达数千台。”
He added that orders for just one product, a computer system that combines 36 Grace CPUs with 72 Blackwell GPUs, is currently experiencing 27% month-to-month sales growth. Huang didn’t limit his bullish view to current sales though. He took the opportunity to reiterate Nvidia’s revenue outlook for next year — guidance the company provided last month when it reported yet another record-breaking revenue quarter. That’s when he first said revenue could grow by 70% next year. 他补充说，仅其中一款产品——结合了 36 个 Grace CPU 和 72 个 Blackwell GPU 的计算机系统——目前的月销售额增长率就达到了 27%。不过，黄仁勋的乐观预期并不局限于当前的销售额。他借此机会重申了英伟达对明年的营收展望——这是该公司上个月在报告又一个破纪录的季度营收时提供的指引。当时他首次表示，明年营收可能会增长 70%。
“I think we could grow 70% year over year. We’re confident about that,” Huang said again on Thursday. Analysts expect the company to end its current fiscal year at about $400 billion in revenue. So 70% growth would mean around $680 billion next year. “我认为我们可以实现 70% 的同比增长。我们对此充满信心，”黄仁勋周四再次强调。分析师预计该公司本财年的营收将达到约 4000 亿美元。因此，70% 的增长意味着明年的营收将达到约 6800 亿美元。
Huang explained why he’s confident: His company is so embedded in every area of AI that he believes he can see the future. “Nvidia runs every model. Every single lab can use us,” the CEO said, mentioning that this includes models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, as well as open-weight offerings. “We are a foundational platform of the AI ecosystem, foundational platform of the AI industry.” 黄仁勋解释了他为何如此自信：他的公司已深入到人工智能的每一个领域，以至于他相信自己能预见未来。“英伟达运行着每一个模型。每一个实验室都可以使用我们的产品，”这位首席执行官说道，并提到这包括来自 Anthropic、OpenAI 和谷歌的模型，以及开源权重模型。“我们是人工智能生态系统的基础平台，是人工智能产业的基础平台。”
Nvidia’s fingers extend all the way from its suppliers, such as memory chip makers, to data center projects and startups. “We’re tracking every single gigawatt of land, power, shell around the world. Literally everything on the planet,” he said. (“Shell” refers to the shell of a data center building before it is outfitted with computers). 英伟达的触角延伸至其供应商（如存储芯片制造商），一直到数据中心项目和初创公司。“我们正在追踪全球每一吉瓦的土地、电力和外壳。字面上讲，是地球上的一切，”他说。（“外壳”指的是在安装计算机之前的数据中心建筑外壳）。
“I mean, just think about all my partners. How many neoclouds are reporting back to us? How many OEMs are reporting back to us? How many clouds are reporting back to us? How many AI-native companies are reporting back to us? We’re working with everybody, and so we kind of know where everything is,” he said. “我的意思是，想想我所有的合作伙伴。有多少新一代云服务商在向我们汇报？有多少 OEM 在向我们汇报？有多少云厂商在向我们汇报？有多少 AI 原生公司在向我们汇报？我们与所有人合作，所以我们基本上掌握了一切动向，”他说。
That comment led to inevitable questions about Nvidia’s so-called circular deals, in which it invests in companies that turn around and buy its wares. Such schemes famously contributed to the downfall of a previous generation of internet build-out suppliers like Lucent Technologies. Huang had a simple, albeit cheeky, response. “Well, it’s not circular because we put a little bit of money in, and a lot of money comes back.” 这一评论引发了关于英伟达所谓“循环交易”的必然质疑，即英伟达投资的公司转而购买其产品。这种模式曾导致上一代互联网基础设施供应商（如朗讯科技）的衰落。黄仁勋给出了一个简单但俏皮的回应。“好吧，这并不是循环，因为我们投入了少量的钱，却收回了大量的钱。”
He went on to joke, “I look at the spreadsheet, we put in $1 and $100 comes back in. Is that circular? If that is, let’s do more of that.” Quips aside, he insisted that before any of these companies gets an investment, Nvidia makes sure it has real contracts generating revenue from customers. All told, he said he’s seen $100 billion worth of such contracts, “I’m not taking any risks. … I need a sure thing.” 他接着开玩笑说：“我看着电子表格，我们投入 1 美元，收回 100 美元。这算循环吗？如果是的话，那我们多做点这种交易吧。”撇开俏皮话不谈，他坚持认为，在这些公司获得投资之前，英伟达会确保它们拥有从客户那里产生收入的真实合同。总而言之，他说他已经看到了价值 1000 亿美元的此类合同，“我不会冒任何风险……我需要的是确定的事情。”
Time will tell whether Nvidia’s stronghold on AI can really persist long term. If there’s one golden rule of the tech industry, it’s that all big things get disrupted. Right now, even Huang admits that much of AI’s growth is coming from AI-native startups that are raising vast sums and spending most of that cash on their own AI use. As the AI industry matures, expect companies to become more efficient in how they use infrastructure and tokens. But for now, Nvidia has its finger in every pie and sees another year of plenty in its future. 时间会证明英伟达在人工智能领域的堡垒是否真的能长期存在。如果科技行业有一条黄金法则，那就是所有伟大的事物最终都会被颠覆。目前，即使是黄仁勋也承认，人工智能的大部分增长来自那些筹集了巨额资金并将大部分现金用于自身 AI 使用的 AI 原生初创公司。随着人工智能行业的成熟，预计公司在使用基础设施和 Token 方面会变得更加高效。但就目前而言，英伟达涉足了每一个领域，并预见未来一年将是丰收的一年。