This road map could help us decide whether to deploy solar geoengineering
This road map could help us decide whether to deploy solar geoengineering
这份路线图或将帮助我们决定是否部署太阳能地球工程
A San Francisco nonprofit has published a detailed road map of the experiments, studies, and infrastructure that it says would be needed to make informed decisions about the use of solar geoengineering, MIT Technology Review can reveal. 据《麻省理工科技评论》披露，旧金山一家非营利组织发布了一份详细的路线图，列出了为就太阳能地球工程的使用做出明智决策所需进行的实验、研究和基础设施建设。
Scientists have now spent half a century exploring the possibility that we could counteract climate change by releasing reflective particles into the stratosphere, mimicking the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions. 科学家们已经花了半个世纪的时间探索一种可能性：通过向平流层释放反射性颗粒，模拟火山喷发的降温效应，从而抵消气候变化。
But even after at least hundreds of studies on the concept, known as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), big gaps remain in the scientific understanding of how well it would work and what else it might do—and there has been no systematic plan for clearing up that uncertainty. 然而，尽管针对这一被称为“平流层气溶胶注入”（SAI）的概念已经进行了至少数百项研究，但在科学界对其有效性及潜在副作用的理解上仍存在巨大空白，且此前一直缺乏消除这种不确定性的系统性计划。
Reflective, a research organization that funds studies on solar geoengineering, has today attempted to fill that gap with the release of its SAI Research Roadmap. 今天，资助太阳能地球工程研究的科研机构 Reflective 发布了其《SAI 研究路线图》，试图填补这一空白。
“Our mission is to equip the world with the data and tools required for informed decision-making about sunlight reflection fast enough to matter,” says Dakota Gruener, the organization’s cofounder and chief executive. “Our sense is the world may need to make very consequential decisions on timelines far shorter than our research system is prepared for.” “我们的使命是为全球提供所需的数据和工具，以便在阳光反射问题上做出明智的决策，且速度必须足够快，以产生实际影响，”该组织联合创始人兼首席执行官达科塔·格鲁纳（Dakota Gruener）表示。“我们认为，世界可能需要在比我们现有研究体系准备时间短得多的期限内，做出非常重大的决策。”
The hope is the exercise will guide scientific efforts and encourage philanthropies or government agencies to fund high-priority work and “responsibly accelerate research,” says Gruener. 格鲁纳表示，希望这一举措能引导科学工作，并鼓励慈善机构或政府部门资助高优先级项目，从而“负责任地加速研究”。
If all the work is done in a coordinated way, it would take about a decade and cost around $370 million—and if it’s not, it would require roughly 20 years and nearly $1.4 billion, the report estimates. 报告估计，如果所有工作都能协调一致地进行，大约需要十年时间，耗资约 3.7 亿美元；如果无法协调，则需要约 20 年时间，耗资近 14 亿美元。
While Gruener stresses that Reflective doesn’t advocate using this form of solar geoengineering, the report does make the case for conducting outdoor experiments, which would release successively larger amounts of sulfur dioxide (or materials that would convert into it) in the stratosphere to observe what happens. 虽然格鲁纳强调 Reflective 并不主张使用这种形式的太阳能地球工程，但该报告确实提出了进行户外实验的理由，即在平流层中释放逐渐增加的二氧化硫（或可转化为二氧化硫的物质），以观察其反应。
That is a controversial standpoint. Since 2002, hundreds of academics have signed an open letter calling for a ban on outdoor experiments and an “international non-use agreement,” arguing that such a powerful technology could never be governed in a globally equitable way. 这是一个充满争议的立场。自 2002 年以来，数百名学者签署了一封公开信，呼吁禁止户外实验并签署“国际不使用协议”，理由是这种强大的技术永远无法以全球公平的方式进行管理。
And some signatories argue that more studies can never address one of the biggest questions about using solar geoengineering: Who gets to do it. 一些签署者认为，更多的研究永远无法解决使用太阳能地球工程最大的问题之一：谁有权实施它。
“The first-order questions, from my perspective, are not technical,” Aarti Gupta, co-initiator of the non-use initiative and professor of global environmental governance at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, told me in a recent on-stage interview. “The core question is: Who would control a planet-altering technology like stratospheric aerosol injection? Who would develop it, and who would deploy it, and to what end? To serve what purposes, and whose purposes? Those questions are very fundamental, because this planet-altering technology will have winners and losers.” “在我看来，首要问题并非技术问题，”不使用倡议的发起人之一、荷兰瓦赫宁根大学全球环境治理教授阿尔蒂·古普塔（Aarti Gupta）在最近的一次现场采访中告诉我。“核心问题是：谁来控制像平流层气溶胶注入这样改变地球的技术？谁来开发它，谁来部署它，目的是什么？为了服务于什么目的，以及谁的目的？这些问题非常根本，因为这种改变地球的技术必然会有赢家和输家。”
‘Fast enough to matter’
“速度必须足够快，以产生实际影响”
Since Gruener incorporated Reflective in late 2023, the nonprofit has quickly become an important player in solar geoengineering research. It has now raised more than $20 million from a number of prominent charities and individuals, and it’s provided around $4 million to several dozen research groups. 自格鲁纳于 2023 年底成立 Reflective 以来，该非营利组织迅速成为太阳能地球工程研究领域的重要参与者。目前，它已从多家知名慈善机构和个人处筹集了超过 2000 万美元，并向数十个研究小组提供了约 400 万美元的资助。
Reflective has also undertaken a handful of its own projects to promote research, including the development of an open-source solar geoengineering simulator and an online hub for collaborative research. Reflective 还开展了一些旨在促进研究的项目，包括开发开源太阳能地球工程模拟器和建立协作研究的在线中心。
Earlier this year, Reflective released its SAI Uncertainties database, which identified a long list of scientific unknowns and engineering obstacles that would need to be addressed before even a small-scale solar geoengineering effort could move ahead. (I wrote about the specific scenario and the unknowns in this earlier piece.) 今年早些时候，Reflective 发布了“SAI 不确定性数据库”，列出了一长串在小规模太阳能地球工程推进之前必须解决的科学未知数和工程障碍。（我曾在之前的文章中写过关于具体情景和这些未知数的内容。）
Some of the biggest uncertainties involve what gas or particles would make the most sense to use and what would happen once they were released in the dry stratosphere. It’s not clear, for example, whether they’d spread out in a way that maximizes the reflectivity—or clump together and quickly fall out into the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere. 一些最大的不确定性涉及使用哪种气体或颗粒最合理，以及一旦它们被释放到干燥的平流层中会发生什么。例如，目前尚不清楚它们是会以最大化反射率的方式扩散，还是会聚集成团并迅速落入地球大气层的最低层——对流层。
The road map builds upon the database, highlighting the path to addressing most of those questions. 该路线图建立在数据库的基础上，指明了解决大部分问题的路径。
The road map
路线图
The initial phase in Reflective’s road map, labeled “foundational knowledge,” includes additional computer simulation studies and lab experiments designed to shed light on the potential impacts on different regions, ecosystems, and phenomena, including ocean circulation patterns, ice sheets, and crop yields. Reflective 路线图的初始阶段被称为“基础知识”，包括额外的计算机模拟研究和实验室实验，旨在阐明其对不同地区、生态系统和现象（包括海洋环流模式、冰盖和作物产量）的潜在影响。
The report also notes the need to begin developing more observational tools during this phase to improve understanding of the baseline conditions of the stratosphere—and, in turn, our ability to assess any effects from the eventual release of materials. 报告还指出，在此阶段需要开始开发更多的观测工具，以提高对平流层基准条件的理解，进而提高我们评估最终释放物质所产生任何影响的能力。
This first stage would last two to three years and cost $30 million to $75 million, though some of the analysis and observational work would continue into subsequent phases. 第一阶段将持续两到三年，耗资 3000 万至 7500 万美元，尽管部分分析和观测工作将持续到后续阶段。
The next stage would include using modified aircraft to release 10 metric tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, four times over the course of two seasons. The full research stage could take four to eight years and cost $70 million to $150 million, the report says. 下一阶段将包括使用改装飞机在两个季节内分四次向平流层释放 10 公吨二氧化硫。报告称，整个研究阶段可能需要四到八年，耗资 7000 万至 1.5 亿美元。
The work during it may reduce uncertainty about the “cooling efficacy” of solar geoengineering, or how much the planet would cool per ton of sulfur released, by about 25%. 在此期间的工作可能会将关于太阳能地球工程“降温效能”（即每释放一吨硫能使地球降温多少）的不确定性降低约 25%。
The experiments during the next phase would step those levels up dramatically, releasing 25,000 tons of sulfur dioxide over the course of one season, at least once but possibly twice. That research stage, which includes other work as well, would last four to 11 years, run $270 million to $1.1 billion, and decrease efficacy uncertainty by around 66%, according to the road map. 下一阶段的实验将大幅提高释放水平，在一个季节内释放 25,000 吨二氧化硫，至少一次，甚至可能两次。根据路线图，该研究阶段（还包括其他工作）将持续四到 11 年，耗资 2.7 亿至 11 亿美元，并将效能不确定性降低约 66%。
The final phase of research would be ongoing monitoring of full-scale solar geoengineering, if the world goes ahead with it. The goal would be… 研究的最后阶段将是对全面部署的太阳能地球工程进行持续监测（如果世界决定推进的话）。其目标将是……