Can the US battery market untangle from China?

美国电池市场能与中国“脱钩”吗？

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The US is hitting records for the rapid growth of its energy storage market. That’ll go a long way to shoring up the grid, increasing reliability and also cutting emissions, since batteries can help store energy from intermittent renewables like wind and solar. Crucially, this is all happening with the help of cheap Chinese batteries, though there’s been a concerted effort to reduce the US’s reliance on them. 执行摘要 美国能源存储市场正以创纪录的速度快速增长。这将极大地巩固电网、提高可靠性并减少排放，因为电池有助于存储风能和太阳能等间歇性可再生能源产生的电力。至关重要的是，这一切都是在廉价中国电池的帮助下实现的，尽管美国一直在协同努力减少对它们的依赖。

Most recently, in an executive order in late August, the Trump administration declared a national emergency that essentially bans Chinese batteries from being used in grid-scale energy storage systems. There’s an argument to be made about reducing reliance on any single source of a crucial energy technology. But all this tension raises a broader question for me: How much should countries take advantage of cheap, available tech, versus cutting off major sources to force development of their own factories even if that comes at a higher cost? 最近，特朗普政府在8月下旬发布的一项行政命令中宣布进入国家紧急状态，实质上禁止在电网级储能系统中使用中国电池。减少对单一关键能源技术来源的依赖固然有其道理，但所有这些紧张局势引发了一个更广泛的问题：各国在多大程度上应该利用廉价、现成的技术，而不是切断主要来源以强制发展本国工厂，即使这样做成本更高？

This is hardly America’s first push to move away from Chinese influence in the battery supply chain. One of the major policy tools used in recent years is restricting the tax credits designed to incentivize use of the new technologies. Limiting the types of projects that are eligible can help reduce the cost of local technologies so they’re more competitive with otherwise cheaper imported options. 这并非美国首次试图摆脱中国在电池供应链中的影响。近年来使用的主要政策工具之一是限制旨在激励新技术使用的税收抵免。限制符合条件的项目的类型，有助于降低本土技术的成本，使其在面对原本更便宜的进口选择时更具竞争力。

Back in 2022, the US government designed the tax credits that were part of the Inflation Reduction Act to restrict where a battery’s minerals could be mined, processed, or recycled, as well as where a battery and its components were assembled. Those tax credits underwent a makeover in 2025, but the Trump administration has taken a similar tack. New legislation requires that starting in 2026, 55% of the cost of materials used for new energy storage projects must come from outside China and other restricted countries or the projects won’t qualify for tax credits. 早在2022年，美国政府设计的《通胀削减法案》中的税收抵免政策，就对电池矿物的开采、加工或回收地点，以及电池及其组件的组装地点进行了限制。这些税收抵免在2025年进行了调整，但特朗普政府采取了类似的方针。新立法要求，从2026年开始，新储能项目所用材料成本的55%必须来自中国和其他受限国家之外，否则这些项目将无法获得税收抵免资格。

And we can’t forget about tariffs. Import taxes for batteries increased to 25% in January, up from 7.5%. But the new executive order is a more drastic move. It bans the installation of “any foreign-produced bulk-power system electric equipment” that poses a national security risk. The order specifically calls out battery energy storage systems, as well as inverters and transformers. 我们也不能忘记关税。电池进口税在1月份从7.5%提高到了25%。但新的行政命令采取了更激进的举措。它禁止安装任何构成国家安全风险的“外国生产的大容量电力系统电气设备”。该命令特别点名了电池储能系统，以及逆变器和变压器。

“An outright ban was a bit of a surprise, and it does create a bit of concern for domestic players in the US,” says Shan Tomouk, energy storage and energy lead for Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, an energy industry analyst. The move is likely to slow deployment of grid-connected energy storage projects in the near term, according to analysis from BloombergNEF, an energy consultancy. Projects could face delays as developers wait for clarity on the rules. 能源行业分析机构 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 的储能与能源主管 Shan Tomouk 表示：“直接禁令确实有点令人意外，这确实让美国国内参与者感到担忧。”据能源咨询公司彭博新能源财经（BloombergNEF）分析，此举可能会在短期内减缓并网储能项目的部署。由于开发商在等待规则的明确，项目可能会面临延误。

Depending on the detailed guidance from the Department of Energy, which is expected by the end of the year, some projects may need to find alternative sources for their cells, whether they’re domestically produced or imported from other countries. These will likely be more expensive than Chinese imports, says Isshu Kikuma, an energy storage analyst at BloombergNEF. “Worst case, those projects could get canceled,” he says. 根据预计将于年底出台的美国能源部详细指导方针，一些项目可能需要为其电池单元寻找替代来源，无论是本土生产还是从其他国家进口。彭博新能源财经的储能分析师 Isshu Kikuma 表示，这些替代品可能比中国进口产品更昂贵。“最坏的情况是，这些项目可能会被取消，”他说。

Technically, the order applies even to existing energy storage plants, though it’s unlikely that they’ll be taken offline because of their batteries’ origin. Since most of these plants currently use Chinese batteries, enforcing the order to the letter would essentially mean removing most installed battery energy storage from the US grid, Kikuma says. 从技术上讲，该命令甚至适用于现有的储能电站，尽管它们不太可能因为电池来源问题而被强制下线。Kikuma 指出，由于目前大多数此类电站都使用中国电池，如果严格执行该命令，实际上意味着要从美国电网中移除大部分已安装的电池储能设施。

In the longer term, the US will eventually be able to meet its own demand for batteries. The country could have enough capacity by about 2030, though some factories may not ramp up or run at their full capability, meaning domestic supply won’t actually meet demand until later in the 2030s. New factories from LG Energy Solutions, Samsung SDI, Ford, and SK On are set to come online or ramp up by next year. In an ironic twist, a slowing EV market is helping, as some factories originally designed for vehicle batteries are retooling to build cells for grid storage instead. 从长远来看，美国最终将能够满足自身的电池需求。到2030年左右，美国可能拥有足够的产能，尽管一些工厂可能无法提高产量或满负荷运转，这意味着国内供应实际上要到2030年代后期才能满足需求。LG新能源、三星SDI、福特和SK On的新工厂预计将于明年投产或扩大产能。具有讽刺意味的是，电动汽车市场的放缓反而提供了帮助，因为一些最初为汽车电池设计的工厂正在进行改造，转而生产用于电网存储的电池单元。

But it will come at a cost. Today, batteries produced in the US are still significantly more expensive than those made in China. Even switching to imports from other countries like South Korea would likely be more expensive. This is a crucial issue that goes beyond the US and even beyond batteries. China is miles ahead of much of the rest of the world on technologies like solar panels and batteries. Through years of government support and experience with research and manufacturing, the nation is an energy powerhouse. 但这需要付出代价。如今，美国生产的电池仍然比中国制造的电池昂贵得多。即使转向从韩国等其他国家进口，成本也可能更高。这是一个超越美国、甚至超越电池行业的关键问题。在太阳能电池板和电池等技术领域，中国领先世界其他大部分地区。通过多年的政府支持以及在研发和制造方面的经验，中国已成为能源强国。

There’s a delicate political balance to maintain as the world figures out how to navigate this situation. There’s cheap technology on offer, which can help drastically reduce emissions and energy costs. But there can be risks associated with relying too much on any one player for crucial technologies. 当世界各国都在设法应对这一局面时，需要保持一种微妙的政治平衡。市场上提供的廉价技术有助于大幅减少排放和能源成本。但过度依赖单一参与者来获取关键技术可能会带来风险。