The US Government Launched 3 Previously Unreported Investigations of Polymarket Trades
The US Government Launched 3 Previously Unreported Investigations of Polymarket Trades
美国政府对 Polymarket 的交易发起了 3 项此前未披露的调查
The US government launched at least three previously unreported investigations into trading on the prediction market Polymarket, according to documents obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request. 根据《连线》（WIRED）通过《信息自由法案》请求获得的文件，美国政府已对预测市场 Polymarket 上的交易发起了至少三项此前未披露的调查。
Voting records from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, shed new light on how the government approaches these investigations. In early May, CFTC chairman Michael Selig approved an order allowing the agency’s enforcement division to launch a private investigation into potential insider trading on Polymarket event contracts related to pardons issued by former president Joseph Biden. The order granted permission to take testimony, obtain subpoenas, administer oaths, and require the production of documents in the course of the investigation. 监管预测市场的联邦机构——商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的投票记录，揭示了政府处理这些调查的新视角。今年 5 月初，CFTC 主席迈克尔·塞利格（Michael Selig）批准了一项命令，允许该机构的执法部门对 Polymarket 上与前总统约瑟夫·拜登（Joseph Biden）发布的赦免令相关的事件合约中潜在的内幕交易展开秘密调查。该命令授权在调查过程中进行证词采集、获取传票、主持宣誓以及要求提供文件。
The documents obtained by WIRED did not specify which trades were under suspicion, but the order came several weeks after an NPR report on a suspicious Polymarket trader who netted over $300,000 on pardon-related markets in the final days of the Biden administration. The trader correctly wagered that the former president would issue preemptive pardons to a number of prominent MAGA critics, including former US representatives Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, and US senator Adam Schiff. 《连线》获得的文件并未具体说明哪些交易受到怀疑，但该命令是在美国国家公共电台（NPR）报道了一名可疑的 Polymarket 交易员后几周发布的。该交易员在拜登政府执政的最后几天里，通过与赦免相关的市场获利超过 30 万美元。这名交易员准确押注前总统将对多位著名的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）批评者发布预防性赦免，其中包括前美国众议员利兹·切尼（Liz Cheney）、亚当·金辛格（Adam Kinzinger）以及美国参议员亚当·希夫（Adam Schiff）。
At the end of May, Selig approved another investigation order. This time, the topic was “Iran event contracts” on Polymarket. As with the Biden pardon documents, the investigation order did not provide details, but it came two weeks after 60 Minutes aired a report on a network of suspicious Polymarket accounts that made $2.4 million on Iran-related trades, with a 98 percent win rate. 5 月底，塞利格批准了另一项调查令。这一次，主题是 Polymarket 上的“伊朗事件合约”。与拜登赦免令的文件一样，调查令没有提供细节，但它是在《60 分钟》节目播出关于一个可疑 Polymarket 账户网络的报道两周后发布的。该网络通过与伊朗相关的交易获利 240 万美元，胜率高达 98%。
“If these investigations are being prompted solely by press reports of potential violations of the Commodities Exchange Act, that’s a significant sign of weakness in this regulatory scheme,” says Joseph Konizeski, a former chief trial attorney in the CFTC’s division of enforcement. The agency has come under fire in the second Trump era for its perceived friendliness to the prediction market industry. “如果这些调查仅仅是由媒体关于潜在违反《商品交易法》的报道所引发的，那么这表明该监管机制存在明显的薄弱环节，”曾任 CFTC 执法部门首席审判律师的约瑟夫·科尼泽斯基（Joseph Konizeski）表示。在特朗普的第二个任期内，该机构因被认为对预测市场行业过于友好而受到抨击。
In July, Selig greenlit a third investigation, this time focused on suspected insider trading on Google-themed Polymarket event contracts. In an email exchange included in the documents obtained by WIRED, Paul Hayeck, the acting director of the CFTC’s department of enforcement, noted that the investigation would focus on “additional individuals who may have engaged in insider trading related to Google’s 2025 Year in Search Ranking.” Hayeck wrote that the Southern District of New York is conducting a “parallel investigation.” He specified that the CFTC’s investigation would be separate from the ongoing case against Michele Spagnuolo, a Google engineer accused of insider trading. 7 月，塞利格批准了第三项调查，此次重点关注与谷歌（Google）主题相关的 Polymarket 事件合约中涉嫌的内幕交易。《连线》获得的文件中包含的一封电子邮件显示，CFTC 执法部门代理主任保罗·海耶克（Paul Hayeck）指出，调查将集中在“可能参与了与谷歌 2025 年度搜索排名相关的内幕交易的其他个人”。海耶克写道，纽约南区联邦检察官办公室（SDNY）正在进行一项“平行调查”。他明确表示，CFTC 的调查将独立于针对谷歌工程师米歇尔·斯帕纽洛（Michele Spagnuolo）的现有案件，后者被指控进行内幕交易。
SDNY declined to comment. Google declined to comment. It pointed WIRED to a statement it released in June noting that Spagnuolo was no longer with the company. The CFTC did not respond to requests for comment and questions about the status of the investigations. 纽约南区联邦检察官办公室拒绝置评。谷歌拒绝置评，并向《连线》指出了其在 6 月份发布的一份声明，声明中提到斯帕纽洛已不再为该公司工作。CFTC 未回应置评请求，也未回答关于调查进展的问题。
“While we do not comment on specific investigations, we regularly refer matters to law enforcement and support ongoing investigations as part of our commitment to protecting the integrity of our markets,” Olivia Chalos, deputy chief legal officer at Polymarket, told WIRED in an email. “虽然我们不对具体调查发表评论，但作为我们致力于保护市场诚信的一部分，我们定期将相关事项移交执法部门，并支持正在进行的调查，”Polymarket 副首席法务官奥利维亚·查洛斯（Olivia Chalos）在给《连线》的电子邮件中表示。
The CFTC is also reportedly investigating Polymarket itself. The company, which had its flagship platform banned from the United States in 2022, was permitted to launch a US-regulated version with a narrower set of markets in late 2025. It recently underwent a fundraising round led by Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, which valued the company at $21 billion. 据报道，CFTC 也在调查 Polymarket 本身。该公司的主力平台曾于 2022 年在美国被禁，但在 2025 年底获准推出了一个受美国监管的版本，其市场范围更为有限。该公司最近完成了一轮由小唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump Jr.）的风险投资公司 1789 Capital 领投的融资，估值达到 210 亿美元。
The CFTC has also launched investigations into potential insider trading on Kalshi, Polymarket’s archrival, in the past. According to The New York Times, Kalshi has referred at least 32 cases to the agency. The CFTC fined former US representative George Santos $35,000 for his behavior related to a Kalshi contract about whether he would attend Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address. CFTC 过去也曾对 Polymarket 的主要竞争对手 Kalshi 潜在的内幕交易展开过调查。据《纽约时报》报道，Kalshi 已向该机构移交了至少 32 起案件。CFTC 对前美国众议员乔治·桑托斯（George Santos）处以 3.5 万美元罚款，原因是他涉及一项关于他是否会出席特朗普 2026 年国情咨文演讲的 Kalshi 合约的行为。
Kalshi issued its first-ever lifetime ban to Santos for violating its rules on market manipulation for the same behavior, and also fined him just over $71,000. Santos was not criminally charged. Kalshi 因同样的操纵市场行为违反了其规则，对桑托斯发出了有史以来第一次终身禁令，并对他处以了略高于 7.1 万美元的罚款。桑托斯未受到刑事指控。
So far, two arrests have been made stemming from Polymarket insider trading investigations. In April, federal authorities arrested a US special forces officer who prosecutors say used classified information to make more than $400,000 in profits on event contracts related to the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. And in May, Spagnuolo, who allegedly made over $1.2 million on insider trades, was arrested while traveling to New York. In both cases, the CFTC filed civil charges, and the Department of Justice filed criminal fraud charges. Both men are fighting back by arguing that Polymarket trades are a form of betting and not subject to commodities law. 到目前为止，已有两人因 Polymarket 内幕交易调查被捕。4 月，联邦当局逮捕了一名美国特种部队军官，检察官称他利用机密信息，在与抓捕前委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）相关的事件合约中获利超过 40 万美元。5 月，涉嫌通过内幕交易获利超过 120 万美元的斯帕纽洛在前往纽约时被捕。在这两起案件中，CFTC 都提起了民事诉讼，司法部也提起了刑事欺诈指控。两人目前都在进行抗辩，理由是 Polymarket 的交易属于博彩形式，不受商品法管辖。
It’s unclear if the Department of Justice has launched parallel investigations into the Iran War or Biden pardon contracts. The DOJ did not immediately respond to requests for comment. 目前尚不清楚司法部是否已针对伊朗战争或拜登赦免令合约展开了平行调查。司法部未立即回应置评请求。
A former CFTC staffer tells WIRED that parallel criminal investigations are likely, “given the significance of the matters.” 一位前 CFTC 工作人员告诉《连线》，“考虑到这些事项的重要性”，平行刑事调查很有可能会进行。
Additional reporting by Maddy Varner. 补充报道：Maddy Varner。
Update 9/11/2026 4:15 pm ET: This story has been updated to include a response from SDNY. 更新：美东时间 2026 年 9 月 11 日下午 4:15：本文已更新，加入了纽约南区联邦检察官办公室（SDNY）的回应。