David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don’t Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

大卫·萨克斯：OpenAI 和 Anthropic 不需要监管来放缓前沿模型的发展

Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead. You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement. I don’t see what you see in the lab.

Dario 写道我们需要“放缓前沿发展”，Sam 也表示同意。人们可能会对我的回应感到惊讶：那就去做吧。你们就是前沿本身。按照任何合理的衡量标准——市场份额、收入增长、模型能力——你们两家在前沿智能领域形成了双头垄断。你们还声称，由于递归自我改进，你们的领先优势正在扩大。我在实验室里并没有看到你们所看到的东西。

If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible. But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.

如果尚未发布的模型确实令人生畏，以至于你们认为应该放慢脚步，我支持你们负责任的决定。但别再假装你们需要别人的许可了。别再假装为了让你们结成卡特尔，就必须暂停反垄断法。别再假装你们需要一套凌驾于产品责任之上的监管审批流程。别再假装 METR 是独立的，尽管它与 Anthropic 的投资者和员工纠缠不清。别再假装你们需要这些评估机构去监管那些甚至还没达到前沿水平的竞争对手。

Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.

最重要的是，别再假装放慢脚步的动机纯粹是出于利他主义。如果你们的产品导致了真正具有破坏性的网络攻击，你们将面临巨大的产品责任风险。市场已经开始惩罚那些行为不可预测或未经授权的模型。在 Hugging Face 事件之后，对于 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 来说，用一些原始性能换取可靠性和可预测性，纯粹是明智的商业决策。你们可以称之为“对齐”，但这本质上只是在满足客户的需求。

Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well. So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it.

放缓前沿发展也将为关于监管的讨论创造空间，使其能够比伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）那种“全部关停”的论调更理性。如你们所知，中国不太可能加入全球协议，这一点也必须考虑在内。所以，放手去放缓前沿发展吧。你们才是制定规则的人。不构建超级智能最简单的方法，就是你们自己同意不去构建它。

Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it. If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.

将你们偏好的监管框架作为实现这一目标的代价，看起来就像是在勒索公众和政治体制。所以，直接去做吧。如果你们做了，你们将为下一次对话赢得善意。如果你们不这样做，我们就会明白，这不过是又一次寻求监管俘获的尝试，或者是一场选举季的心理战。