Here’s What the AI Apocalypse Could Look Like
Here’s What the AI Apocalypse Could Look Like
人工智能末日可能是什么样子
The debate of whether AI can kill us has been everywhere lately, but what would an actual AI catastrophe look like? This week, Brian Barrett, Zoë Schiffer, and Leah Feiger break down three real-world scenarios experts worry the most about—including hacked water supplies, bioweapons, and autonomous robots. 关于人工智能是否会终结人类的争论最近无处不在，但真正的人工智能灾难会是什么样子呢？本周，Brian Barrett、Zoë Schiffer 和 Leah Feiger 剖析了专家们最担心的三种现实场景，包括供水系统被黑、生物武器以及自动机器人。
We also discuss the highlights of Salesforce’s annual conference, where OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Anthropic’s Dario Amodei defended their positions on AI safety. Plus, Leah tells us how this backlash against AI has become a rare bipartisan flash point, to the point that Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon shared a stage over it this week. 我们还讨论了 Salesforce 年度大会的亮点，OpenAI 的 Sam Altman 和 Anthropic 的 Dario Amodei 在会上为他们的人工智能安全立场进行了辩护。此外，Leah 还告诉我们，这种针对人工智能的抵制情绪是如何成为一个罕见的跨党派焦点，以至于伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）和史蒂夫·班农（Steve Bannon）本周甚至因此同台讨论。
Zoë Schiffer: Welcome to WIRED’s Uncanny Valley. I’m Zoë Schiffer, contributing editor. Zoë Schiffer： 欢迎收听《连线》（WIRED）的《恐怖谷》（Uncanny Valley）播客。我是特约编辑 Zoë Schiffer。
Brian Barrett: I’m Brian Barrett, executive editor. Brian Barrett： 我是执行编辑 Brian Barrett。
Leah Feiger: And I’m Leah Feiger, director of politics and science. Leah Feiger： 我是政治与科学总监 Leah Feiger。
Zoë Schiffer: Today on the show, we’re diving into the debate about whether AI is going to kill us all. And instead of just adding to the pile of hot takes that already exist, we’re going to walk you through real, specific scenarios to the best of our ability about how AI would actually do this, and why the tech CEOs and politicians cannot seem to agree on the way forward. OK, guys, so the debate about AI safety has officially escaped containment. Zoë Schiffer： 今天在节目中，我们将深入探讨人工智能是否会杀死我们所有人的争论。我们不想只是增加现有的热点评论，而是要尽我们所能，带大家了解人工智能究竟会如何做到这一点，以及为什么科技公司首席执行官和政客们似乎无法就前进的方向达成一致。好了，伙计们，关于人工智能安全的辩论已经正式“失控”了。
Brian Barrett: Oh. Brian Barrett： 哦。
Zoë Schiffer: I know. Zoë Schiffer： 我知道。
Brian Barrett: Zoë, I see what you did there. Wow. Brian Barrett： Zoë，我明白你的意思了。哇。
Zoë Schiffer: You see what I did there? That’s the thing that’s really spread uncontrollably. AI researcher Jacob Coxon resigned from Anthropic and posted on X that, “The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade.” Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei has called for a slowdown. They call this, “pacing the frontier.” And Sam Altman and Elon Musk have actually signed on, a rare moment of agreement. But honestly, with all of this talk about AI wiping out humanity, I have been left with a very basic question, which is, how exactly does this happen? What does AI going completely rogue actually look like? Zoë Schiffer： 你明白我的意思了吗？这正是那种真正无法控制地蔓延开来的东西。人工智能研究员 Jacob Coxon 从 Anthropic 辞职并在 X 上发帖称：“开发人工智能的人真诚地相信，它可能会在本世纪末之前杀死我们所有人。” Anthropic 的首席执行官 Dario Amodei 呼吁放慢速度。他们称之为“放缓前沿步伐”。Sam Altman 和 Elon Musk 实际上也签署了协议，这是一个罕见的共识时刻。但老实说，在所有关于人工智能将消灭人类的讨论中，我留下了一个非常基本的问题：这到底是怎么发生的？人工智能彻底失控到底是什么样子？
Leah Feiger: I’m so happy we’re doing this. We had such a great podcast last week with WIRED’s Will Knight talking about everyone being concerned about this, but I want like a breakdown. I need you to just take me through every single scenario from bioweapons to nuclear codes, to what are we really talking about here when we’re talking about AI deathbots. Leah Feiger： 我很高兴我们做了这期节目。上周我们和《连线》的 Will Knight 做了一期很棒的播客，讨论了每个人对此的担忧，但我想要一个详细的分析。我需要你们带我了解每一个场景，从生物武器到核密码，当我们谈论“人工智能杀手机器人”时，我们到底在谈论什么。
Zoë Schiffer: We are going to do our very best. I did spend the most time I’ve ever spent reading LessWrong over the last two days trying to figure this out. They love a scenario-planning exercise, but just to get everyone up to speed on kind of the latest, there was an event this week hosted by Salesforce where Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang were all in attendance, and naturally they had to talk about AI safety. Let’s take a listen at what Sam Altman had to say. Zoë Schiffer： 我们会尽力的。过去两天我花了我这辈子最多的时间阅读 LessWrong 网站，试图弄清楚这一点。他们喜欢情景规划练习，但为了让大家了解最新情况，本周 Salesforce 举办了一场活动，Sam Altman、Dario Amodei 和英伟达的黄仁勋都出席了，他们自然不得不谈论人工智能安全。让我们听听 Sam Altman 是怎么说的。
Sam Altman (archival audio): I think the world is right to be afraid of this. So we have these two big challenges. We have the potential of a loss-of-control accident or some other serious thing that could go wrong. We have the potential of way too much power concentration and people fear that those developing AI could exert their worldview. And there is this sort of narrow path we have to navigate with pragmatism, with steadiness, with the ability for the world to trust that we’ll make dependable decisions, consistent decisions through this. And I think people are saying, “Well, this now seems pretty important. Let’s get it right.” Sam Altman（存档音频）： 我认为世界对这一点感到恐惧是正确的。所以我们面临着两个巨大的挑战。我们面临着失控事故或其他可能出错的严重事情的潜在风险。我们面临着权力过度集中的潜在风险，人们担心那些开发人工智能的人可能会强加他们的世界观。我们必须以务实、稳健的态度走一条狭窄的道路，并让世界相信我们能够在此过程中做出可靠、一致的决策。我认为人们现在在说：“好吧，这看起来很重要。让我们把它做好。”