Where will the next breakout startup come from? Benchmark’s full partnership weighs in at TechCrunch Disrupt 2026

下一个爆发式增长的初创公司将从何而来？Benchmark 全体合伙人将在 TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 大会上发表见解

What does one of Silicon Valley’s most successful venture firms think founders are getting wrong? At TechCrunch Disrupt 2026, we’re putting all five Benchmark general partners on one stage to find out. Jack Altman, Peter Fenton, Chetan Puttagunta, Everett Randle, and Eric Vishria will come together for the Disrupt Stage session “What We Believe Now.” 硅谷最成功的风险投资公司之一认为创始人们在哪些方面犯了错？在 TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 大会上，我们将邀请 Benchmark 的全部五位普通合伙人同台，一探究竟。Jack Altman、Peter Fenton、Chetan Puttagunta、Everett Randle 和 Eric Vishria 将齐聚 Disrupt 舞台，参加名为“我们当下的信念”（What We Believe Now）的专题讨论。

This is the first time the entire current Benchmark partnership has appeared together on the Disrupt Stage in San Francisco. Rather than another conversation about where venture capital has been, the focus is on where it goes next: where the next generation of startups will come from, which assumptions founders should reconsider, and which opportunities the partners believe are still hiding in plain sight. And 2026 is an especially interesting year to ask them. 这是 Benchmark 现任全体合伙人首次共同亮相旧金山的 Disrupt 舞台。这次讨论将不再是关于风险投资“过去如何”的陈词滥调，而是聚焦于“未来走向”：下一代初创公司将从何而来，创始人们应该重新审视哪些假设，以及合伙人们认为哪些机会仍隐藏在众目睽睽之下。2026 年是一个向他们提出这些问题的绝佳年份。

Benchmark has spent decades building a reputation around concentrated early-stage investing. This year, it made one of the biggest changes in its own playbook — raising approximately $2 billion across a $750 million flagship fund and its first $1.25 billion growth fund. The market changed. Benchmark changed with it. Now we want to know what the firm thinks will happen next. 几十年来，Benchmark 凭借其专注的早期投资策略建立了良好的声誉。今年，他们对其投资策略进行了重大调整——募集了约 20 亿美元资金，其中包括 7.5 亿美元的旗舰基金和其首支 12.5 亿美元的成长型基金。市场变了，Benchmark 也随之而变。现在，我们想知道这家公司对未来有何预判。

Venture has plenty of capital. Conviction is harder to find. AI has reshaped the venture market with extraordinary speed. According to the OECD, AI companies captured 61% of global venture capital investment in 2025 — $258.7 billion of $427.1 billion invested overall. Yet that capital was far from evenly distributed: deals worth more than $100 million represented roughly 73% of total AI investment value. 风险投资领域资金充裕，但“信念”却难能可贵。人工智能以惊人的速度重塑了风投市场。根据经合组织（OECD）的数据，2025 年人工智能公司占据了全球风险投资总额的 61%——在 4271 亿美元的总投资中，AI 领域占了 2587 亿美元。然而，这些资本的分配极不均衡：超过 1 亿美元的交易占据了 AI 投资总额的约 73%。

That creates a strange environment for founders. There is huge appetite for technology businesses, alongside growing competition for a relatively small number of companies investors believe can become category leaders. Is the next billion-dollar company another AI application, or is the application layer already overcrowded? Does defensibility sit in models, infrastructure, proprietary data or distribution? Are some of the best businesses being overlooked because everyone is chasing the same themes? And when founders can build products faster than ever, what actually makes one company investable? 这为创始人创造了一个奇怪的环境。市场对科技企业的胃口巨大，但投资者认为能成为行业领军者的公司数量相对较少，竞争也日益激烈。下一家十亿美元级的公司会是另一个 AI 应用吗？还是说应用层已经过度拥挤？防御性壁垒究竟在于模型、基础设施、专有数据还是分发渠道？是否因为每个人都在追逐相同的热点，导致一些最优秀的企业被忽视了？当创始人构建产品的速度比以往任何时候都快时，究竟是什么让一家公司具备投资价值？

There probably won’t be complete agreement onstage. That’s the point. Hear this complex discussion among five VC heavyweights on the Disrupt Stage. 舞台上可能不会达成完全一致的共识。但这正是重点所在。敬请在 Disrupt 舞台上聆听这五位风投重量级人物的深度探讨。

Five investors on the Disrupt Stage, very different routes to the partnership. Benchmark’s partnership brings together experience from founding companies, backing enterprise software, investing in frontier technology, and helping businesses navigate IPOs and acquisitions. Disrupt 舞台上的五位投资者，通往合伙人之路各不相同。Benchmark 的合伙人团队汇集了多方面的经验：包括创立公司、支持企业软件、投资前沿技术，以及帮助企业完成 IPO 和并购。

Put those perspectives together and Benchmark’s panel session, “What We Believe Now,” becomes less about a single Benchmark thesis and more about how experienced investors disagree, update their assumptions, and decide where conviction is warranted. 将这些视角结合起来，Benchmark 的专题讨论“我们当下的信念”将不再仅仅是关于 Benchmark 的单一论点，更多的是关于经验丰富的投资者如何产生分歧、更新假设，并决定在何处投入信念。

Sometimes the opportunity hiding in plain sight looks like a bad meeting. Cerebras is a useful example. Vishria recently told TechCrunch that he almost didn’t take his first meeting with the AI chip startup in 2016. Hardware was outside Benchmark’s comfort zone, and what Cerebras wanted to build looked extraordinarily difficult. 有时，隐藏在眼皮底下的机会看起来像是一场糟糕的会议。Cerebras 就是一个很好的例子。Vishria 最近告诉 TechCrunch，他差点在 2016 年拒绝了与这家 AI 芯片初创公司的第一次会面。硬件投资超出了 Benchmark 的舒适区，而且 Cerebras 当时想要构建的东西看起来极其困难。

By the third slide, he had changed his mind. Benchmark went on to co-lead the company’s $25 million Series A. Ten years later, Cerebras went public, with Benchmark holding a 9.5% stake at the IPO. That story encapsulates something important about venture investing. The best opportunity does not always arrive looking like the consensus winner. Sometimes it challenges the investor’s existing thesis. Sometimes the technology is too early. Sometimes the market does not obviously exist yet. And sometimes knowing when to change your mind is more valuable than being right from the beginning. 但在看到第三张幻灯片时，他改变了主意。随后，Benchmark 联合领投了该公司 2500 万美元的 A 轮融资。十年后，Cerebras 上市，Benchmark 在 IPO 时持有其 9.5% 的股份。这个故事概括了风险投资中重要的一点：最好的机会并不总是以“共识赢家”的面貌出现。有时它会挑战投资者现有的论点。有时技术还太超前。有时市场尚未显现。而有时，知道何时改变主意比从一开始就正确更有价值。

Founders should come to this Disrupt session prepared to disagree. For founders, there may be no more useful part of the session than hearing what Benchmark believes entrepreneurs are currently misreading. Not because Benchmark is automatically right, but… 创始人们应该带着“反驳”的准备来参加这次 Disrupt 会议。对于创始人来说，这次会议最有价值的部分，莫过于听听 Benchmark 认为创业者目前在哪些方面存在误读。这并不是因为 Benchmark 永远正确，而是因为……