AI, Tariffs, Rare Minerals: What to Expect From Trump’s Upcoming Summit With Xi Jinping
AI, Tariffs, Rare Minerals: What to Expect From Trump’s Upcoming Summit With Xi Jinping
人工智能、关税、稀有矿产：特朗普与习近平即将举行的峰会有何看点
Of all the events in the United Nations General Assembly taking place this week, the most anticipated by far is the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping. 在本周举行的联合国大会各项活动中，最受瞩目的莫过于唐纳德·特朗普与中国国家主席习近平即将举行的会晤。
Though the majority of the diplomatic activities are happening in New York, this face-to-face between the two leaders will take place at the White House. Trump is scheduled to personally welcome Xi at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday, September 23—an unusual diplomatic gesture, as US presidents do not typically go to the airport to welcome foreign leaders. 尽管大部分外交活动都在纽约进行，但两位领导人的此次面对面会晤将在白宫举行。特朗普计划于9月23日（周三）在安德鲁斯联合基地亲自迎接习近平——这是一种不同寻常的外交姿态，因为美国总统通常不会亲自前往机场迎接外国领导人。
Ahead of that airport reunion, a US delegation led by Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and trade representative Jamieson Greer is meeting with He Lifeng, China’s vice premier of the State Council, to set the agenda. The World Economic Forum presented an overview of some of the most pressing topics, including the trade conflict, the supply chain, technological competition, and the ever-sensitive issue of Taiwan—all while keeping in mind the difficulties that have kept the US mired in a war in the Middle East that threatens to escalate. 在机场会面之前，由美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）和贸易代表杰米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）率领的美国代表团正在与中国国务院副总理何立峰会面，以确定议程。世界经济论坛概述了一些最紧迫的议题，包括贸易冲突、供应链、技术竞争以及极其敏感的台湾问题——同时，各方还需考虑到美国深陷中东战争且局势有升级风险的困境。
Trade Truce Expiring
贸易休战即将到期
The trade truce that came out of Trump and Xi’s meeting in Busan last year is set to expire on November 10. Both governments now have to decide whether to extend the agreement, which lowered Trump’s tariff threats and paused port fees. In addition to discussing the possibility of extension, the leaders could decide to set purchase targets for key trade items including agricultural products, energy, and Boeing aircraft. They may also continue negotiations about a package worth approximately $30 billion in “non-sensitive” goods, which includes about 10 categories, though there is no agreement on their scope. 去年特朗普与习近平在釜山会晤后达成的贸易休战协议将于11月10日到期。两国政府现在必须决定是否延长该协议，该协议曾降低了特朗普的关税威胁并暂停了港口费用。除了讨论延期的可能性外，领导人还可能决定为农产品、能源和波音飞机等关键贸易项目设定采购目标。他们还可能继续就价值约300亿美元的“非敏感”商品一揽子计划进行谈判，该计划涵盖约10个类别，尽管目前在范围上尚未达成一致。
One key component of the Busan agreement was that it lifted China’s export limits on rare earths and minerals—key exports for automobiles, defense, and technology, including essential hardware for AI. With the US seeking a more stable supply for these materials, Beijing has leveraged its dominant position in the international market to bring Washington to the negotiating table in the trade war. 釜山协议的一个关键组成部分是取消了中国对稀土和矿产的出口限制——这些是汽车、国防和技术（包括人工智能所需的基本硬件）的关键出口产品。由于美国寻求这些材料的更稳定供应，北京利用其在国际市场的主导地位，迫使华盛顿在贸易战中回到谈判桌前。
AI Competition
人工智能竞争
According to Scott Bessent, AI safety will be on the agenda for the bilateral meeting. This discussion has been one of the main requests from business leaders, though the industry is mixed on the desired outcomes. Beijing wants to see the US ease some restrictions on Chinese technologies. However, as there is a growing call to slow down AI development to ensure safety, some US businesses are worried about being outpaced by China. 据斯科特·贝森特称，人工智能安全将列入双边会晤的议程。这一讨论是商业领袖的主要诉求之一，尽管业界对预期的结果看法不一。北京希望看到美国放宽对中国技术的一些限制。然而，由于要求放缓人工智能发展以确保安全的呼声日益高涨，一些美国企业担心会被中国赶超。
This arena remains uncertain, as Trump has dismissed such calls for regulation at home, and these discussions are also fundamentally intertwined with trade talks about export controls on computer chips and related materials. 这一领域仍存在不确定性，因为特朗普在国内驳回了此类监管呼声，而且这些讨论从根本上与关于计算机芯片及相关材料出口管制的贸易谈判交织在一起。
Iran, Taiwan, and Global Politics
伊朗、台湾与全球政治
The trade talks lie uneasily between each country’s most sensitive geopolitical stances. China has threatened to pull out of the summit entirely if the US green-lights new arms sales to Taiwan. The countries are, however, expected to discuss China’s economic ties with Iran, as well as detained foreign nationals. Both countries are expected to tread lightly without ceding influence, making any fundamental shift unlikely. 贸易谈判在两国最敏感的地缘政治立场之间艰难进行。中国已威胁称，如果美国批准对台新军售，将完全退出峰会。不过，预计两国将讨论中国与伊朗的经济联系以及被拘留的外国公民问题。预计两国都会谨慎行事，同时不放弃自身影响力，因此不太可能出现任何根本性的转变。
In summary, Washington is pushing for greater access to Chinese products and markets, critical minerals, and commitments on certain security issues. On the other side of the table, Beijing seeks relief from tariffs and restrictions. Each side has its own leverage and multiple pieces on various chessboards, such as Africa and Latin America. At the same time, both are trying to prevent Taiwan and other geopolitical conflicts from undermining their economic relationship. 总之，华盛顿正在推动获得更多进入中国产品和市场的机会、关键矿产资源，并要求在某些安全问题上做出承诺。而在谈判桌的另一端，北京寻求减轻关税和限制。双方在非洲和拉丁美洲等不同的棋盘上都有各自的筹码和布局。同时，双方都在努力防止台湾问题和其他地缘政治冲突破坏其经济关系。
The meeting held this past May in Beijing was full of symbolic gestures, but both leaders made very few concessions at the negotiating table. Will there be a different outcome in Washington? 今年5月在北京举行的会晤充满了象征性姿态，但两位领导人在谈判桌上几乎没有做出任何让步。华盛顿的会晤会有不同的结果吗？
“I think there will be some show of deliverables because of the fact that it’s a presidential summit coming, but I don’t feel like we’re on the verge of some sort of breakthrough,” Anna Ashton, a China trade analyst and founder of Ashton Intelligence, told CNBC. “I think status quo is probably both sides’ general best expectation.” “我认为会展示一些成果，因为这是一次总统级峰会，但我不觉得我们即将取得某种突破，”中国贸易分析师、Ashton Intelligence创始人安娜·阿什顿（Anna Ashton）告诉CNBC。“我认为维持现状可能是双方普遍的最佳预期。”