A US-China AI Hotline Won’t Be Ready For a While

美中人工智能热线短期内难以实现

As US president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping prepare to meet in Washington for a state dinner at the White House on Thursday, AI has become a top priority. Tech executives from OpenAI and Nvidia have confirmed their attendance at the dinner, as a number of key agenda items are on the table.

随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与中国国家主席习近平准备于周四在白宫出席国宴，人工智能已成为首要议题。OpenAI 和英伟达（Nvidia）的科技高管已确认出席此次晚宴，届时双方将讨论多项关键议程。

Chief among them is a US proposal to establish an AI notification system with China, akin to the Cold War hotline with Moscow, which would allow each country to alert the other about national security issues related to AI. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent first announced the notification system on Sunday with Chinese vice premier He Lifeng.

其中最主要的是美国提议与中国建立一套人工智能通报机制，类似于冷战时期与莫斯科建立的热线，旨在允许两国就与人工智能相关的国家安全问题相互预警。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）于周日与中国国务院副总理何立峰会晤时首次宣布了这一通报系统。

But for all the high-level progress, Trump administration officials tell Inner Loop they expect it to still take a number of weeks to finalize an agreement, even if they are optimistic that the hotline could be in place before the year’s end.

尽管高层进展顺利，但特朗普政府官员向《Inner Loop》透露，他们预计仍需数周时间才能最终达成协议，尽管他们对该热线能在年底前投入使用持乐观态度。

There are several parts that need to be formalized in more detail, including establishing benchmarks on what kind of incident rises to the level of a national security issue, which remains unclear, as well as explicit sign-on from China, which has been noncommittal.

目前仍有几个部分需要进一步细化，包括确定何种事件达到“国家安全问题”级别的基准（目前尚不明确），以及获得中国方面的明确同意，而中方目前尚未做出承诺。

Trump officials tell Inner Loop they are essentially targeting a framework for the system to be functional—and, crucially, agreed to by Trump—by the time Bessent next meets with Lifeng in follow-up talks in two months’ time in Shenzhen, China.

特朗普政府官员告诉《Inner Loop》，他们的目标是建立一个功能性的系统框架，并确保在两个月后贝森特与何立峰在中国深圳进行后续会谈时，该框架能获得特朗普的批准并投入运作。

The discussions around such a mechanism underscore the growing concern around the rapidly developing capabilities of frontier AI models as the US and China race to become the dominant power in the industry.

围绕这一机制的讨论凸显了人们对前沿人工智能模型快速发展能力的日益担忧，因为美中两国正竞相成为该行业的主导力量。

Trump officials have internally discussed putting together a framework that lays out criteria for when each country is obligated to alert the other and enforcement measures to ensure it doesn’t only become the US alerting the Chinese.

特朗普政府官员已在内部讨论制定一个框架，明确两国在何种情况下有义务向对方发出预警，并制定执行措施，以确保该机制不会演变成“仅由美国向中国预警”的单向模式。

But with the US expected to extend a trade truce and Trump reluctant to stop exports of cutting-edge Nvidia chips to China, developing a framework that has enforcement measures with teeth could take time to get White House approval, sources say.

但消息人士称，由于美国预计将延长贸易休战，且特朗普不愿停止向中国出口尖端英伟达芯片，制定一套具有实质性执行力的框架可能需要时间才能获得白宫批准。

The administration has granted a limited number of licenses this year for Nvidia to sell its H200 chip to China, a critical component for AI labs to increase compute power to train their models. Nvidia’s supporters have argued that not selling the chips incentivizes Chinese companies like Huawei to develop their own chip technology, though according to recent reports, the company has already achieved that milestone with its commercially available AI chips.

今年，美国政府已向英伟达发放了有限数量的许可证，允许其向中国出售 H200 芯片。该芯片是人工智能实验室提升模型训练算力的关键组件。英伟达的支持者认为，禁止销售这些芯片会促使华为等中国公司开发自己的芯片技术；而据近期报道，华为已凭借其商用人工智能芯片实现了这一里程碑。

Some Trump officials have also suggested the notification system may also be delayed while Trump decides on who to appoint as his next “AI czar” to lead a so-called “AI Force,” which is being envisioned as a role in charge of interagency coordination.

一些特朗普政府官员还表示，该通报系统的建立可能会推迟，因为特朗普正在决定任命谁担任下一任“人工智能沙皇”，以领导所谓的“人工智能部队”，该职位被设想为负责跨部门协调的角色。

Bessent has been one of the names floated as the AI czar, but it is not clear if he’s the standout. Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and White House AI officials Michael Kratsios and Sean Cairncross are also in the mix, two sources tell Inner Loop.

贝森特是“人工智能沙皇”的候选人之一，但尚不清楚他是否是首选。两位消息人士告诉《Inner Loop》，商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）以及白宫人工智能官员迈克尔·克拉西奥斯（Michael Kratsios）和肖恩·凯恩克罗斯（Sean Cairncross）也在候选名单中。

It remains unclear if Trump will choose someone who will be wearing two hats or is departing their current role to take the position. The previous AI czar, David Sacks, was in the position as a special government employee. Sacks is not considered to be in the mix to return, the sources say.

目前尚不清楚特朗普会选择一位身兼数职的人选，还是会选择一位卸任现职的人来担任该职位。上一任“人工智能沙皇”大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks）是以特殊政府雇员身份担任该职的。消息人士称，萨克斯不在回归的考虑范围内。

The push for Bessent has come in part because the AI notification system is seen as something akin to the US-China dialogue between former Treasury secretary Hank Paulson and former Chinese vice premier of finance Wang Qishan. During the 2008 financial crisis, Paulson credited the hotline as helping to stave off China from dumping a large portion of US government sponsored debt issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

推动贝森特担任此职的部分原因是，人工智能通报系统被视为类似于前美国财政部长亨利·保尔森（Hank Paulson）与前中国国务院副总理王岐山之间的美中对话机制。在 2008 年金融危机期间，保尔森曾称赞该热线机制帮助阻止了中国抛售大量由房地美（Freddie Mac）和房利美（Fannie Mae）发行的美国政府支持债券。

Meanwhile, while some Trump officials have chafed at the idea of giving more AI power to Lutnick, he remains in contention insofar as he oversees the Center for AI Standards and Innovation, which successfully navigated crises with frontier AI model companies this summer.

与此同时，尽管一些特朗普政府官员对赋予卢特尼克更多人工智能权力感到不满，但他仍处于竞争行列，因为他负责监管人工智能标准与创新中心（Center for AI Standards and Innovation），该中心在今年夏天成功处理了与前沿人工智能模型公司相关的危机。