Aurora CFO says 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030 isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds

Aurora 首席财务官：到 2030 年实现 3 万辆无人驾驶卡车并非天方夜谭

Autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora told investors last week that it expects to have more than 30,000 self-driving trucks on the road generating $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2030 — an audacious plan considering it expects to end 2026 with just 200 driverless trucks and an $80 million revenue run rate. 自动驾驶技术公司 Aurora 上周向投资者表示，预计到 2030 年底，将有超过 3 万辆自动驾驶卡车投入运营，并产生 50 亿美元的年收入。考虑到该公司预计到 2026 年底仅拥有 200 辆无人驾驶卡车，且年化收入仅为 8000 万美元，这一计划显得十分大胆。

CFO David Maday contends the seemingly outsized target isn’t as large or as out of reach as it might appear. “While 30,000 kind of feels like a lot — and it does in the autonomy space for sure — in terms of trucks relative to the overall market, it’s kind of pretty small,” he told TechCrunch in a recent interview, adding that the four major truck manufacturers produce anywhere between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks a year. “I don’t think it’s aspirational,” he added, “I think we can do it.” 首席财务官 David Maday 认为，这个看似庞大的目标其实并没有想象中那么遥不可及。“虽然 3 万辆听起来很多——在自动驾驶领域确实如此——但就卡车在整个市场中的占比而言，这个数字其实相当小，”他在最近接受 TechCrunch 采访时表示。他补充说，四大卡车制造商每年生产的新卡车数量在 25 万到 30 万辆之间。“我不认为这只是一个愿景，”他补充道，“我认为我们能够做到。”

Investors haven’t exactly embraced Aurora’s 2030 vision. Shares have continued to slide since the company’s annual analyst and investor day on September 23. On Monday, shares closed down 12.42%, to $5.29. But investors have time to come around and, according to Maday, the big “unlock” for Aurora starts in 2027 and accelerates from there. The company expects to go from 200 driverless trucks at the end of 2026 to more than 1,000 a year later. 投资者似乎并不完全买账 Aurora 的 2030 年愿景。自 9 月 23 日公司举办年度分析师和投资者日以来，其股价持续下跌。周一，股价收盘下跌 12.42%，报 5.29 美元。但投资者仍有时间转变看法，Maday 表示，Aurora 的重大“解锁”时刻始于 2027 年，并从此开始加速。该公司预计无人驾驶卡车数量将从 2026 年底的 200 辆增加到一年后的 1000 多辆。

Today, Aurora operates what it calls a transportation-as-a-service business — a proof-of-concept model that it plans to limit to about 500 trucks. It owns and operates the self-driving trucks and charges its customers, including Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane, and Werner about a $2 per mile, a rate that includes a fuel surcharge. That works out to roughly the same rates as other carriers’ typical pricing. 目前，Aurora 运营着所谓的“运输即服务”（Transportation-as-a-Service）业务——这是一种概念验证模型，计划限制在约 500 辆卡车规模。公司拥有并运营这些自动驾驶卡车，并向 Detmar Logistics、Hirschbach、McLane 和 Werner 等客户收取每英里约 2 美元的费用（包含燃油附加费）。这与其它承运商的典型定价大致相当。

The real shift — and the real savings, Maday says — will happen next year as when Aurora begins moving to a driver-as-a-service model. Instead of Aurora owning the trucks, customers will buy the self-driving trucks and pay Aurora a per-mile subscription fee for the self-driving technology, which the company expects to be about $0.85. Under this model, the customers will own and maintain the truck, while Aurora maintains the self-driving system and its accompanying hardware. Maday 表示，真正的转变——以及真正的成本节约——将从明年开始，届时 Aurora 将转向“驾驶员即服务”（Driver-as-a-Service）模式。届时，Aurora 将不再拥有卡车，客户将购买自动驾驶卡车，并就自动驾驶技术向 Aurora 支付每英里的订阅费，公司预计该费用约为 0.85 美元。在这种模式下，客户拥有并维护卡车，而 Aurora 则负责维护自动驾驶系统及其配套硬件。

Moving the trucks off Aurora’s balance sheet is critical if the company wants to scale — and it’s likely what investors are paying attention to. The company said it expects to reach breakeven gross margins (meaning revenue would cover the direct costs of running the trucks) on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027 with around 500 trucks on the road. 如果公司想要扩大规模，将卡车从资产负债表中剥离至关重要——这也正是投资者可能关注的重点。该公司表示，预计在 2027 年上半年，随着约 500 辆卡车投入运营，其毛利率将达到盈亏平衡（即收入能够覆盖运营卡车的直接成本）。

The next big leap comes at the end of 2027 with Aurora’s third-generation hardware— the sensors, computers, and other equipment that let its trucks drive themselves — which will be mass-produced autonomous vehicle hardware built by its partner, Aumovio (formerly known as Continental). Aumovio isn’t just engineering and manufacturing the hardware kit; the company is also financing it for Aurora — easing the financial burden on the self-driving truck company. Aumovio will also service and repair the kits for customers. 下一个重大飞跃将在 2027 年底实现，届时 Aurora 将推出第三代硬件——即让卡车实现自动驾驶的传感器、计算机及其它设备。这些硬件将由其合作伙伴 Aumovio（前身为大陆集团）进行量产。Aumovio 不仅负责设计和制造硬件套件，还为 Aurora 提供融资，从而减轻了这家自动驾驶卡车公司的财务负担。此外，Aumovio 还将为客户提供套件的维护和维修服务。

Aurora plans to expand its operations at the same time. By 2030, the company expects to grow beyond a few states in the South to the vast majority of the continental U.S., according to Maday. “By 2028, I expect that our cost structures are going to be really outstanding, that’s why you see our gross margin starting to take off …” Maday said. “Once you get to that point, I think going into ride hailing is fine,” he said, confirming that Aurora still plans to eventually enter the robotaxi market. 与此同时，Aurora 计划扩大其业务范围。Maday 表示，到 2030 年，公司预计业务将从南部几个州扩展到美国大陆的绝大部分地区。“到 2028 年，我预计我们的成本结构将非常出色，这就是为什么你会看到我们的毛利率开始起飞……”Maday 说道。“一旦达到那个阶段，我认为进入网约车领域是可行的，”他确认 Aurora 仍计划最终进入自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）市场。